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<ul><li><p>4/27/2017</p><p>1</p><p>Conservation</p><p>Conservation Problems for SW</p><p> Locally generatedHuman population growth</p><p> From elsewhereGlobal warmingIntroduced speciesMigratory networks (birds, bats, etc.)</p><p>Impact on SW of Local People Human population growth and </p><p>development has led to habitat modification and reduction.</p><p> Weve talked about this off and on through the semester.</p><p>Huachucas 1909</p><p>Impact of Local People First Clovis hunters came from Siberia We soon lost the megafauna</p><p>Impact of Local People 1880 Large scale introduction of cattle Overgrazing, flooding erosion, down cutting </p><p>of most riparian habitats.</p><p>Huachucas 1909</p><p>Impact of Local PeopleWeve talked about what this did to the </p><p>native fishes, otters, mesquite invasion, extirpation of large animals: wolf, grizzly, jaguar, beaver.</p></li><li><p>4/27/2017</p><p>2</p><p>Modern Population Growth Pre 1950 = frontier period Post 1950 modern urban period Arizona population growth numbers:</p><p> 1940: 500,000 1960: 1,300,000 (up 2.5x) 1980: 2,700,000 (up 2x) 2000: 5,100,000 (up 1.9x) 2014: 6,731,484 (up 1.32x in 14 yrs)</p><p>Modern Population Growth</p><p> Phoenix Area 1950: 330,000 2013: 4,300,000</p><p>Phoenix 1885</p><p>Modern Population Growth</p><p> Tucson Area: 1950: 118,000 2010: 1,020,200 </p><p>Impact of all these people Large land areas are consumed by urban </p><p>development.</p><p>Species-Area Curves There is a well-established relationship between the </p><p>number of species in an area and the size of the area.</p><p>Species-Area Curves There is a well-established relationship between the </p><p>number of species in an area and the size of the area.</p></li><li><p>4/27/2017</p><p>3</p><p>Development Tucson and Phoenix are undergoing massive conversion </p><p>of natural areas to urban and suburban use.Tucson 1920</p><p>Effects of Reduced Natural Areas What happens when </p><p>areas are reduced? Many species are </p><p>doomed though it may take time to reach the new equilibrium number of species determined by habitat loss.</p><p>Species loss Bighorn sheep were in the </p><p>Catalina Mts until the turn of the century.</p><p> Pusch Ridge Wildernesscreated in 1978 to protect them.</p><p> Too much population pressure from humans, dogs, etc. with the development of Oro Valley and the foothills of the Catalinas</p><p> (Back for now due to aggressive management plan)</p><p>Impact of all these people</p><p> More water use means dams, diversions, lower water tables disappearance of rivers and riparian areas.</p></li><li><p>4/27/2017</p><p>4</p><p>Impact of all these people</p><p> Invasive species: buffelgrass, bass, mosquito fish, bull frog</p><p>Bull frogs Largest US frog Not native west of Mississippi Eat anything, snakes, frogs Prolific and spread on their own Transmits a disease of frogs. Eat natives like leopard frogs and fish</p><p>Impacts from Outside the SW Migatory species affected by what goes on elsewhere</p><p>Were part of a larger fabric Migratory bats, birds, butterflies, etc. Vampire bats parasitize cattle in southern Mexico In some places bats are indiscriminantly killed Theyre our pollinators and insect controllers!</p><p>Impacts from Outside the SW Global Warming </p><p>2007</p><p>Impacts from Outside the SW Global Warming </p><p> It has started and cannot be stopped (easily or soon). Has become a partisan issue in American politics! There is a scientific consensus that climate </p><p>change is occurring, and that human activities are the primary driver.</p><p> One study: 13,950 climate change articles in peer-reviewed journals, only 24 rejected anthropogenic global warming</p><p> 70 percent of Americans now believe that global warming during the last 40 years is real and supported by solid evidence</p><p> Most models say SW will be drier, all models say it will be hotter in your lifetime.</p></li><li><p>4/27/2017</p><p>5</p><p>Impacts from Outside the SW Scientists tell us </p><p> Many impacts of climate change have already been observed: including glacier retreat changes in the timing of seasonal events (e.g., </p><p>earlier flowering of plants) including some evolutionary changes</p><p> Organisms moving up in altitude. changes in agricultural productivity. Caused by a world temperature increased 0.8 </p><p>degrees C (1.4F) during the 20th century.</p><p>Impacts from Outside the SW</p><p> Scientists use models to predict the future Predictions vary under different policy </p><p>scenarios: Stringent mitigation policies might be able to </p><p>limit global warming (in 2100) to around 2 C (actually 1.12.9 C) or below.</p><p>With continued high emissions, global mean temperature increase 4.0 C (7.2 F), with a "likely" range of 2.46.4 C (4.311.5 F).</p><p>Impacts from Outside the SW Physical effects of world temperature </p><p>increase:</p></li><li><p>4/27/2017</p><p>6</p><p>Impacts from Outside the SW Effects on weather:</p><p> Changes have been observed in the amount, intensity, frequency, and type of precipitation.</p><p> medium confidence conclusion: human influences had contributed to an increase in heavy precipitation events at the global scale</p><p> Predictions: 1) Overall increase in world precipitation 2) dry regions will in general become drier, wet </p><p>regions will become wetter.</p><p>Impacts from Outside the SW What about us?</p><p>Western US mountains - decrease snowpack, increase winter flooding, and reduce summer flows, more competition for water.</p><p> Pests, diseases, and fire will increase in forests, with extended periods of high fire risk and large increases in area burned (already happening).</p><p> Early decades of the century: projected increase yields of rain-fed agriculture by 5-20% in North America</p><p> But problems due to inadequate water in SW where drought duration and severity have increased negative impact on agriculture.</p><p>North America Its going to continue getting hotter! Predicted summer and winter change by </p><p>2050:</p><p>Impacts from Outside the SW Global Warming </p><p> 120 years precipitation for Pima County, AZ Been getting drier since 1980 but not outside historical </p><p>envelope yet.</p><p>Impacts from Outside the SW Global Warming Whats happening in Tucson?</p><p> 120 years average temperature for Pima County, AZ Oops!</p><p>The great hope: Paris Agreement the world's first comprehensive climate </p><p>agreement! Agreed to hold the increase in the global </p><p>average T to well below 2C and to try to limit it to 1.5C.</p><p> Help people adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and lower greenhouse gas emissions development, without threatening food production.</p><p> Commitments to pay to lower greenhouse gas emissions and develop climate-resilience. </p></li><li><p>4/27/2017</p><p>7</p><p>Paris Agreement Negotiated by representatives of 195 countries </p><p>at in Paris and adopted by consensus on December 12, 2015.</p><p>Went into effect on 4 November 2016 Ambitious reductions in greenhouse gas </p><p>emissions for each country Each country reports progress every 5 years. No binding penalties, just name and shame</p><p>Paris Agreement Obama administration promoted the </p><p>agreement and started taking steps to achieve its goals.</p><p> Trump administration is divided over the agreement (dont like regulation).</p><p> Executive orders to weaken US greenhouse gas reductions.</p><p>Much of our energy and emission policies will be hard to back out of: Legal issues Conversion to renewable energy is already </p><p>happening and has much momentum.</p><p>Conservation ProblemsNature stressedSpecies endangeredNatural habitats and processes </p><p>endangered Especially hard hit: Riparian areas and </p><p>species found there.</p><p>Why do we care? Two views:Humans are what really matter: nature is for us to use.</p><p>We are part of the earth system and have an ethical responsibility to the whole.</p><p> Rick Santorums false theology people (like Obama) feel that earth comes before human beings; radical environmentalists want to prevent mankind from utilizing the earth endangering the future prosperity of America.</p><p>First View Humans are what really matter: </p><p>nature is for us to use. Traditional Consistent with many </p><p>traditional western religious interpretations of mans role in nature.</p><p> God said, Let us make man in our image, after our likeness: and let them have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over the cattle, and over all the earth, and over every creeping thing that creepeth upon the earth.Genesis 1:26</p><p>First View</p><p>Irresponsible and responsible versions:Responsible: </p><p>We need to use nature wisely to optimize human well being over the long term. </p><p>To do this we need to understand nature and use resources sustainably for our long-term good.</p></li><li><p>4/27/2017</p><p>8</p><p>First View Irresponsible version: </p><p>We should be free to do whatever we want with resources and economic markets should not be constrained by conservation considerations. </p><p> Let people make money and a living however they can. </p><p> Irresponsible because it lets us destroy or use up nature for selfish reasons that make it unavailable to other people today and in the future. </p><p> Sometimes wrapped in religion, but doesnt seem to be ethically consistent.</p><p> Second view:Humans do not have an inherently </p><p>special statusPart of the earth system and we have </p><p>an ethical responsibility to the whole.</p><p>Mans Place in Nature:A Series of Demotions</p><p>Great Apes Humans</p><p>Pre-Darwin</p><p>HumansGreat Apes</p><p>1900s</p><p>QuickTime and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor</p><p>are needed to see this picture.</p><p>Asian Ape</p><p>African Apes</p><p>1860 &amp; post-1960</p><p>Humans</p><p>O G HC1980s- Present</p><p> Second view:As animals it is natural for us to look </p><p>after our families and social groups (which we do pretty well!)</p><p>But it is hard to defend the idea that our self interest has priority over that of other organisms.</p><p> Surprisingly, it doesnt matter too much which view you have (except the irresponsible version of view 1)</p><p> Both views mean we need a strong conservation ethic.</p><p> Yet much of what humanity does to nature today is most in keeping with the irresponsible version of view 1.</p><p> Probably more due to ignorance than evil. Also our natural tendency to look after </p><p>ourselves and families.</p><p>Simple Tendencies</p><p> Fight or flight (survival) Procreate Acquisition</p><p> Leads to Irresponsible View 1 Variously justified Unalienable right </p><p>to life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness</p></li><li><p>4/27/2017</p><p>9</p><p> It is like flying in an airplane and randomly pulling off parts of the plane and throwing them out the window, hoping they werent essential. </p><p> Its pretty reckless, regardless of whether you want to save the plane or the people.</p><p> This is the only speck of the universe that has ecosystems that support human life within many light years. </p><p> We have to live with what we make of it there are no backups.</p></li><li><p>4/27/2017</p><p>10</p><p>Irresponsible view in action:The Bad Developer</p><p> Arizona's sole native herd of 70-100 desert bighorns.</p><p> Deep in the Ironwood Forest National Monument</p><p> North of Marana, in the Silverbell Mountains George Johnson, Arizona's "most notorious </p><p>developer"</p><p>Irresponsible view in action Johnson wanted to build 67,000 homes on La Osa Ranch, </p><p>along the Santa Cruz River. Widespread outrage about the project. Pinal County Planning and Zoning rejects the plan in March </p><p>2004. By then Johnson had bladed (bulldozed) 20,000 acres of </p><p>his La Osa property without permits. Decimated an ancient Hohokam archaeological site. Ruined Santa Cruz wetlands. </p><p>Irresponsible view in action Johnson then put 5,000 goats on the ranch.</p><p>Irresponsible view in action Some escaped and infected the bighorns with </p><p>blindness-causing pink eye, and mouth sores (ecthyma) that disrupt grazing and nursing. </p><p> Game and Fish biologists began treating the sheep one-by-one. </p><p> But about 25 percent died. Arizona Game and Fish spent $75,000 working to </p><p>save the sheep. THE END (there was talk about </p><p>suing Johnson)</p><p>Responsible view in actionThe Good Rancher</p><p> Chiricahua leopard frog found in streams in canyons of </p><p>southeastern Arizona, southwestern New Mexico, and northern Mexico.</p><p> Theyve disappeared from about 70% of localities.</p><p> Declared threatened by U.S. Fish and Wildlife in 2002. Eaten by bullfrogs and green sunfish.</p><p>Responsible view in action Gone from San Bernardino National Wildlife Refuge </p><p>(southeastern AZ) by the late 1980s. But outside the refuge, happily chugging along in </p><p>isolated stock tanks used by ranchers for watering cattle (no bullfrog or sunfish).</p><p> Two populations still alive in watering holes on the nearby Magoffin Ranch (early 1990s).</p><p> Water tanks dried out in droughts Frogs survived the 1989 drought in muddy cattle </p><p>footprints. 1994 drought worse</p></li><li><p>4/27/2017</p><p>11</p><p>Responsible view in action Ranchers dug a 10 foot deep pool moved </p><p>400 tadpoles there from the drying tank. Hauled water every week to keep the </p><p>frogs alive. Frogs made it. Ranchers redesigned the tank so it wont dry out in the </p><p>next drought. All the frogs died in another tank, but recolonized after the </p><p>1989 drought. Ranchers dug a well to supply this tank. Half the surviving frogs today are in artificial tanks or </p><p>reservoirs.</p><p> We need well-thought-out plans to conserve nature into the future local and global.</p><p>Solutions individual, social, political</p><p>Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan</p><p> The problem: Pima County consumes 7-10 sq miles of desert each year for homes, shopping areas, etc.</p><p> Decisions largely governed by powerful developers exercising their right to life, liberty and pursuit of happiness with weak oversight by local officials with no unified long-term vision.</p><p> Yet one of the motives for moving and living here is the wonderful natural environment!</p><p>Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan Need for good regional planning was loosing </p><p>out to this pursuit of happiness. ($$) Development vs. conservation The cactus ferruginous pygmy-owl </p><p>(Glaucidium brasilianum cactorum) gained federal protection as an endangered species in 1997 after biologists found only 12 of the tiny birds in Pima County. </p><p> Now the county had to figure out how to obey federal Endangered Species laws.</p><p> Business community and conservationists have embraced a bold scientifically-based unified plan:</p><p> Scientifically identify critical habitats and biological corridors. </p><p> Buy, restore, build around them. Channel growth toward areas with the fewest </p><p>natural, cultural and historic resources.</p><p> Started with a list of vulnerable species Determined their habitat requirements and where </p><p>they are (&gt;60% in riparian areas). Combined this with information on how intact </p><p>different areas are and acquisition, protection possibilities.</p></li><li><p>4/27/2017</p><p>12</p><p>Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan</p><p> Ranch Conservation ranching maintains open spaces, but subdivision and urbanization is taking its toll.</p><p> The plan proposes to help ranchers stay in business and promote good land management principles.</p><p> E.g., purchasing development rights and conservation easements.</p><p>Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan</p><p> Riparian Restoration critical and vulnerable habitats for native species</p><p> Plan identifies most savable riparian areas and deals with the complexities of riparian restoration (water table, exotics, re-introductions, pollution)</p><p>Oracle road wildlife crossings</p><p> Mountain Parks and Nature Preserves Create new ones and expand existing ones. Tucson Mt Park has been recently expanded by 1,500 </p><p>acres. President Clinton created the 129,000 acre Ironwood </p><p>National Monument and the 496,400 acre Sonoran Desert National Monument in 2000.</p><p> Other similar efforts We dont have enough preserves yet to save species. Very powerful city shaping effect.</p><p>Tucson now</p></li><li><p>4/27/2017</p><p>13</p><p> The plan has received awards and praise from regional p...</p></li></ul>

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