Consequences for land use and water

Plant/KeGrJan Verhagen & Peter Troch

Climate Change

GHG emissions Impacts

Mitigation Adaptation

Vulnerability

Context

No regret measures Precautionary principle

CAP, WTO International treaties (FCCC, CBD, CCD, RAMSAR) Nota’s VROM/LNV/DGIS/V&W Participation in NoE/IP of EC FP 6 Sustainable development and global change Global change and ecosystems Water cycle/Monitoring

Climate policies

Mitigation: emission reduction and C sequestration

Vulnerability and adaptation: sustainable development

Variability & extremes: risk management & flip over effects

Research questions

What are the combined effects of global change on functions and services of land and water?

What can land and water management contribute to mitigate climate change?

What is the interaction with current land and water use and what are the social and economic consequences?

What are barriers and opportunities to increase the adaptive capacity of land use and water systems?

Impacts Direct: energy balance, temperature, CO2, rainfall Indirect: pest & diseases, floods, salt intrusion

Vulnerability Areas: coastal zone, river valleys, (semi)-arid,

peatlands. Groups: poor (low adaptive capacity), countries

with economies rooted in climate sensitive sectors (agr./forestry)

The role of Land use

Mitigation carbon sequestration: forest, nature,

agriculture emission reduction: agriculture/animal

husbandry

Adaptation changes in farm and forest management changes in landscape patterns/land use change

The role of water

Mitigation ground water management in peat lands

Adaptation Water resource conservation “ruimte voor water” Risk management

Wageningen/CCB

The Carbon Challenge conservation of existing C pools sequestration by increasing the size of C pools

(forest, agriculture, land use change)

Adaptation (sustainable development) Crop level (selection, stress tolerance) Farm/forest level (management) Regional level (choices of functions,

integration)

Wageningen/CCB

Water resources (co-operation with IVM and CKO) Acceleration of hydrological cycle Floods and droughts Monitoring, modeling and data assimilation Ecosystems Integrated approach

Wageningen/CCB

Hotspots in the developing world Densely populated (coastal) areas Marginal areas

Sharper tools (integration and scale linkages) Integrated natural resource management Integrated water management Multifunctional land use