Confused and Scared and Deeply in Denial

Improving climate change communication and facilitating social change

Susanne C. Moser, Ph.D. & Lisa Dilling, Ph.D.ESIG Coffee Talk, February 24, 2004

The Not-so-lucky Clover Leaf of Communicating Urgency, Need for Change

Complexity & time lag in climate system

Climate change no longer just

a science problem

Peopleperceive no

urgency

Societalstructuresand valuesresistant to

change

Whatnow?

The Difficult Character of Climate Change Global Complex system (with lags and thresholds) Defined and perceived as slow/gradual or as

occurring in the far future Difficult to detect Causes pervasive >> solutions challenging

(we have found the scapegoat and it is us) Impacts dispersed; not all bad; many

“creeping” phenomena Cumulative, synergistic Uncertainty pervasive Politically very controversial

Public Perceptions of Climate Change

~90% of American public aware of “global warming” For ~30% it is personally serious, urgent, worth

worrying about Still confusion about causes of global warming Global warming is inevitable and unfixable Related to irreversible deterioration of moral values Few know about solutions; most are (believed to be)

ineffective or irrelevant Few if any studies have looked at adaptation; climate

variability

“The typical global warming news story overwhelms and immobilizes people.” (Frameworks Institute 2003)

Societal Resistance to Change

Some examples… A power plant has a design life of 30+ years A dam is built to last for decades to 100 years Dominant economic paradigm and supporting

social structures last decades to centuries Values change at generational timescales

“The conditions that brought us climate change, as well as the conditions surrounding future options for dealing with it, are embedded in socioeconomic structures and value systems, embracing material advancement and fossil fuels – structures and values that are highly resistant to change.”

Trumbo and Shanahan, 2000

Confused and Scared and Deeply in Denial

OUTLINE1. The communication – social change

interface2. Communication needs3. Social change at all levels4. A bottom-up framework for

communication and social change5. Challenges and outcomes of

initial project

Why the Communication – Social Change Interface? What is not seen does not exist

Detection and naming of problem Public agenda setting

What is not understood is dismissed, denied, or polemically discussed Facilitation of informed public discourse about issue and

solutions How something is framed determines response

Influence on “issue culture” What is not talked about exerts no political pressure

Link between public discourse and political stage Without accessible solutions we will do nothing

Critical R&D, promotion>> Critical role for science/scientists

(educator, supporter, ally/adversary, engineer)

Climate Change Action & Communication Needs

Anticipatory, planned, strategic action

Actions taken by governments, public decision-makers, and business leaders

Legislation, regulation, incentives

Convincing causality, need for action recognized, need for probablistic climate information, for advance planning

Autonomous, reactive, instantaneous action

Actions taken by individuals, private decision-makers, agencies

Behavioral changes, administrative actions

Need for present-time weather or near-term climate information for response to extreme events, variability

PREVENTION, MITIGATION

(ADAPTATION)

ADAPTATION

(MITIGATION)

The Need for Tailored and Effective Communication

COMMUNICATING… What? How much? In what format? When? How often? To what end?

And most of all… To whom?

Social Change: Where to begin? Individuals? – all, specific ones Businesses? NGOs? Government?

International National State Local

Theories of Social Change: structure vs. agency – still…

IndividualsSmall

InformalCollectives

PrivateNot-for-Profits

PrivateBusinesses

Public Institutions

> > > > > Society at large < < < < <

•Theories of social (counter)movements (mobilization, opportunities, resources)•Diffusion of innovation theory

•Belief model•Deficit model •Theory of reasoned action•Stages of change model•Consumer information processing•Deliberative, inclusionary processes & procedures (e.g., social marketing) •Social learning theory

•Altruism, empathy, pro-social behavior models•Community organization theories (e.g., social network theory)

•Organizational change theories (e.g., stage theory)

•Rational actor paradigm•Qualitative choice theory•Diffusion of innovation theory

•Policy windows model•Regulatory approach•Advocacy coalition approach

A Bottom-Up Framework: Communication-Behavior Change Continuum

Unwieldy problem

MentalModels

Message Framing

MessengerChoice

CommunicationChannelChoice

MessageReception

BehaviorChangeSought

Identificationof

Barriers

Program Design &Planning

BehaviorChangeTools

Maintenance

Termination

Behavior Change

Communication

AudienceChoice

Challenges for Project/Workshop

Walking Our Talk Communicating across disciplinary boundaries Communicating across professional boundaries Raising awareness of climate impact and keeping it to a

minimum Theoretical Integration/Complementarity

Different disciplines Levels of social change

Maintaining credibility for academics and relevance for practitioners Balance of research and action agendas

Expected Outcomes of MacArthur Project

1. Edited volume and synthesis paper2. Research agenda

What aspects are we currently neglecting? Which do we overstate?

3. Action agenda What kinds of practical expertise

would be most useful to draw on? How do we hold the line between

research and advocacy?4. Proposal to NSF (HSD or Biocomplexity)

Explore communication/social change further in regional context (Northeast)

And useful lessons for NCAR…

“What is done with information is as important as the information itself.”

H. Jesse Smith (2004)

Workshop website: http://www.esig.ucar.edu/changeworkshop/index.html