Conflict Trends in Africa

Dr Paul D. Williams

George Washington University

ACSS, September 10, 2019

State Failure Events in Africa, 1955-2017

Source: Political Instability Task Force

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

19

55

19

57

19

59

19

61

19

63

19

65

19

67

19

69

19

71

19

73

19

75

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

Ethnic War Revolutionary War

Adverse Regime Change Genocide/Politicide

Political Conflict in Africa, 2000-2016

Source: ACLEDhttps://www.acleddata.com/

Political Violence & Protests in Africa

(1 Jan 2018—31 Aug 2019)

Source: ACLED

Number of Fatalities1989-2018

Source: UCDPhttps://ucdp.uu.se/#/encyclopedia

Africa: Total Organized Violence Fatalities, 1989-2016* Excluding one-sided violence in the 1994 Rwandan genocide

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Battle-related deaths best estimate Best One-Sided Fatality Estimate

Best Non-State Fatality Estimate

Organized Violence Global Fatalities, 1989-2016

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Non-State armed conflict (best estimated fatalities) One-Sided Violence (best estimated fatalities)

Battle-related Deaths (best estimate)

Rwanda genocide

A Typology of Organized Violence in Africa

Intrastate Armed Conflicts

Interstate Armed Conflicts

Non-State Armed Conflicts

One-Sided Violence

Military Coups

Electoral Violence

Livelihood Struggles

Resource Wars

Clash of (religious)

Civilizations

Greedy Warlords Ethnicity Kills

Post-Colonial

Elites

Colonial Legacies

Governance

SovereigntyResources

Key Drivers?