conference on quality in space and defense industries
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Conference on Quality in Space and Defense Industries. Conference on Quality in Space and Defense Industries 2008. Probabilistic Technology The Army Culture Change Program . Robert J. Kuper Certified, Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Dean, Reliability Engineering Competency - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Conference on Quality in Space and Defense Industries
Robert J. KuperCertified, Lean Six Sigma Black Belt
Dean, Reliability Engineering CompetencyProgram Manager, Reliability for the Future Force
Conference on Quality
in Space and Defense
Industries
2008Probabilistic Technology
The Army Culture Change
Program
Evolving the Army’s PT Culture Change “Background”
1988 Identified the Emerging Value of Probabilistic Technology 1993 Probabilistic Technology research initiated 1994-1996 Technology Demonstrated in Tech Base
Won National Award – “First Insensitive Munitions Container Design” – Design Process Enhancement – A Real Culture Change - A New
Paradigm for the Design Process “Physics-based Probabilistic M&S from Conceptual Design thru
Verification & Validation 2003 Initiated General Application type Training in PT 2004 Re-energized the PT thrust – Congressional Interest Program 2005 Demo T&E cost reduction via adv’d PT M&S – “Black Powder”. 2005-2006 XM982 Characterized internal ballistic loading profiles on
complex MEMS IMU components 2006 Solved Mortar Fin cracking problems PT-Physics-based analysis 2006 Demonstrated PT as value-added R&D Design tool “APOBS” 2006 Developed “Probabilistic Lean Six Sigma” 2007 Probabilistic Technology Community – National Agenda for
Enhanced Competitiveness 2007 Initiated PT LC Enhancements to Tools/Processes
B
System Development& Demonstration
Production & Deployment
Operations & Support
C
Concept & Technology
Development
A
PRE-SYSTEMS AQUISITION SYSTEMS AQUISITION SUSTAINMENT Dis
posa
l/Dem
il
BB
System Development& Demonstration
Production & Deployment
Operations & Support
CC
Concept & Technology
Development
AA
PRE-SYSTEMS AQUISITION SYSTEMS AQUISITION SUSTAINMENT Dis
posa
l/Dem
il
Life
Cyc
le C
ost I
nflu
ence
0%
100%
DFL/6 L/6Greater ROI through Early Detection & Preventive Action
Cos
t of C
orre
ctiv
e A
ctio
n
Costs are Lowto Redesign
Costs are Highto Repair Fleetor Stockpile
Robust DesignsReduce Production& Sustainment Costs
Little Impact w/o Re-design
X
Up To(1000+)X
O V DMAIC/DMALCDC/I
PT-Enhanced DFLSS Influencing the Product Life Cycle
Early, Upfront Investment in Probabilistic Technology:
Drives Identification & Elimination of Failure Mechanisms
Prioritizes Investment
Focuses Design and Process Approach
Yields “Better, Cheaper, and Faster”
Integration of Probabilistic Technology with DFLSS
Critical Role for Probabilistic Technology: “Enhancing Decision-making structures across the LC– Integration with DFLSS, Program Mgt & System Engineering– DFLSS built into Product Development Process (PDP)– PT Becomes a Key Component of LSS – LC Process Focus
• PT- Enhanced DFLSS: Innovation and Conceptual Design – “Rapid Innovation”
• PT- Enhanced DFLSS: Robust Design, Reliability-Based Design Optimization, Axiomatic Design
• PT- Enhanced DMAIC/DMALC: Process and Product Improvement
Customer Customer RequirementsRequirements
Customer Customer ExpectationExpectation
Design for Lean Six SigmaDesign for Lean Six Sigma
Customer Customer RequirementsRequirements
Customer Customer ExpectationExpectation
Design for Lean Six SigmaDesign for Lean Six Sigma
Army Plan
PT
for
Technology Base Reliability Enhancement Thrust Areas
• MEMS Critical Component Reliability Enhancement Initiative
• Embedded PT on a SMARTChip• Composite Technology Maturation & Design for Ultra-
Reliability & Service Life• Probabilistic, Physics-based Integrated M&S
Architecture• “Rapid Innovation” -Tech Base Processes, Tools,
Methods & Best Practices Initiative: Integration of world experts BOK, state of the art tools, methods and processes to provide a world class tech base system.– Advanced Physics-based tools– Seamless Integration of Stochastic/Probabilistic Methods– World class Optimization tools and methods– Phase/Gate: I2DOV & CDOV Process and Axiomatic Design
• EM Gun system platform demonstration project
“Rapid Innovation”• Tech Base Processes, Tools, Methods & Best Practices
Initiative to develop World Class Technology Maturation System
• Addressing actions by the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Providing Probabilistic, Physics-based tools and advanced process management of the tech base
• Supported by World Experts:– Dr. Khalessi – Probabilistic Physics-based Tools, Methods;
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ); Quantitative Risk; Optimization.– Dr. Skip Creveling – DFLSS I2DOV and CDOV processes– Dr. Basem Haik – Axiomatic Design– NASA HQ and Centers– ARDEC LSS Deployment Director: Paul Chiodo– APO Lead: Bob Kuper
• Deliverables: DOD Standard and Guidebook for Technologists Implementation
PT Principles, Tools & Products for TRL 2-4 Maturity Achievement in Early Tech Base
MPP
Probability
Sensitivity
Analyzing ResultsVariableModels
(force, time, etc.)
Process Models
(stress, life, etc.)
Pred
ictiv
e M
odel
sg=
(all.
Res
p.)-
(Est
. Res
p.) Probabilistic
Analysis• FORM• SORM• SM• ISM• RSM• MVBMSy
stem
Def
initi
on &
Dat
a G
athe
ring
PL
PH
System
Subsys.K
Subsys. K-1
Subsys. K-2
Subsys. 2
Subsys. 1
Comp. JComp. J-1Comp. 2Comp. 1
Notional System
c: Define safe and failure domains
Safe Domainx
Mean Point
x2
x1
FailureDomain g4
g3
g1 g2M&S
BayesianPhysics
ProbabilisticAnalyses
Results of M&S, Advanced Physics ToolsConcepts & Technology emergeBayesian Approaches; PredictionModel conceptsConcepts Simulated in war fight Derive Performance ReqtsApply Probabilistic Physics in
Notional applications Determine RMS DriversDetermine Limit state functionsEarly KPP evolutionLC Cost Modeling/implications
Innovation & Conceptual Design Approach
Principles, Tools & their Productsfor RMS TRL 5-8 Maturity Achievement
• TRLs 5-8: Framework for identifying RMS Drivers – defined Operational Environments, imposed stresses, desired performance, define reqts for RMS
• Best Practices for component/technology research begin with Advanced Physics-based Probabilistic and multi-physics M&S.
• Tools:– Finite Element Analyses– Computational Fluid Dynamics– Dynamic Simulations– Multi-Body Physics– Thermal and Fatigue Analyses– Probabilistic Analyses– Reliability/RMS Analytics
Performance level = C1
Products of Tools
IMPACT of Tools
Most probable
points
Identify Most Likely Failure Modes/Mechansims Determine Uncertainty/Risk in ALL parameters Model the multi-physics of all Performance Quantitative Risk Assessments of all failure prob. Understand Sensitivities of all key parameters Quantitative TRL maturity measures “Design-in”better inherent performance & RMS
Related Initiatives - Composite Materials and Structures -
• Objective: Developing Reliability-Based Design Optimization system for all Composites Technology Programs.
• Phase I SBIR – transitioning to Phase II Fast Track Program in FY08. – Understand, characterize and micromechanically model these damage
modes based on rigorous mechanics and predictive framework.• Interfacial fiber/matrix de-bonding• Inter-laminar penny-shaped delamination micro-cracks,• Matrix micro-cracking (in-plane or transverse) • Fiber breaking, buckling, and crushing
– Failure models will be used in Phase 2 and 3 to develop a Probabilistic, Physics-based Design Optimization
• Key Partnerships – Technical Excellence Initiative & Pilot Programs with NASA on Return to
Moon Heavy Lift Vehicle (ARES).– Working with World Experts at PredictionProbe, Inc., UCLA, NASA, and
others– Pursuing partnerships and leveraging with Homeland Security and Army
Corps of Engineers
B
No Failure Observed
A
Reliability Without Part Replacement
Minimum Acceptable Reliability
SmartChip™ Technology Allows for the Evaluation of System Reliability on The Fly
SmartChip™ Updates Reliability Model at A , based on sensor data
SmartChip™ Recommends Part Replacement at B & Upgrades Reliability upon Part ReplacementReliability,
R(t)
Time (t)
Planned Repairs by SmartChip™
SmartChip™ Technology Provides For Highly Reliable Diagnostics & Prognostics
Decision-making
SmartChip™ Technology maximizes system availability by providing for properly timed/planned downtime and eliminating unexpected failures
Related Initiatives- Probabilistic M&S -
Structural FEAANSYS
Dynamic M&SLS-DYNA
Solid ModelingPRO-E
IntegratedPhysics Environment
for Armaments
Reliability, Safety, Optimization & Risk Environment
Cost EnvironmentLogistics Environment
RequirementsEnvironment
EffectivenessEnvironment
ManufacturingEnvironment
Business ProcessEnvironment
ProbabilisticEnvironment
Integrated Probabilistic ComputationalEnvironment
PropulsionIBHVG
Intermediate Calculations &Simulations
Matlab, Excel
Aero-ballisticsPRODAS
KnowledgebaseNotebook Eqns. and
Rules of Thumb
Initial Focus“Physics Environment”
DistributedSimulation
Environment
Probabilistic Technology Enhancement to DFLSS
Prob. TechnologyStandards
Guidelines
ARMY Probabilistic TechnologyBOK, Training &
Sustaining System
Lean Six SigmaDeployment
StrategyDesign For
Lean Six SigmaDFLSS
Integrating PT Awareness
ASQ/PTC
Probabilistic Technology Certification Program – Independent 3rd partyASQ
Implem
entation In A
rmy
Programs
Feedback & Success Stories
LSS Infrastructure
BOK4 Level
ProbabilisticTechnology Certification
Program