conference history
DESCRIPTION
Conference History. Contractual Deliverable for BPA YKFP Projects Expanded to Include other Basin Science Programs (BOR, NOAA, USF&WS, CWU) Relationships of How Management Decisions are Influenced by Science Expanded Habitat Programs - Split Sessions - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Conference History
1. Contractual Deliverable for BPA YKFP Projects
2. Expanded to Include other Basin Science Programs (BOR, NOAA, USF&WS, CWU)
3. Relationships of How Management Decisions are Influenced by Science
4. Expanded Habitat Programs - Split Sessions
5. YBF&WRB - Subbasin Plans and Recovery Actions
YKFP Deliverables
Updates on the Cle Elum Spring Chinook Supplementation Program
– Homing– Distribution– Genetics– Reproductive Success– Precocialism– Domestication– Non-Target Taxa– Predation by Birds and Fish
Bird Predation
Predator or Protector?
Spring Chinook Run Forecast
• Columbia Basin Management Decisions are Based on Annual Run Predictions
• Harvest Regulations above and below Bonneville Dam
• Harvest Allocation for Treaty and Non-treaty Fishers
• Science from Yakima Basin may Assist in Refining the Predictor Model
050
100150200250300350400450
Forecast Return
Forecasted vs Actual Returns of Col. R. Spring Chinook, 1985 - Present
Tho
usan
ds o
f F
ish
Data Source: Columbia River Joint Staff Report, Jan. 26, 2009
http://wdfw.wa.gov/fish/crc/crcindex.htm
• Why has the traditional jack predictor resulted in increased divergence between
forecasted and actual returns in recent years?
• Can we correct for this?
Number of Age-3 PIT Detections at Bonn. Dam for CESRF* Spring Chinook by brood year (BY06 detections as of 6/10/09)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Brood Year
Ag
e-3
Det
ecti
on
s
* CESRF = Cle Elum Supplementation and Research Facility
http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/g-forecast.cfm
Ocean Conditions when Juveniles Arrive
R2 = 0.6766
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
NOAA Ocean Conditions Rank
Act
ual
Ru
n s
ize
(th
ou
san
ds
of
fish
)
There is a strong relationship between the NOAA Ocean Condition rank at
juvenile entry and actual Adult Returns
Jacks (as sampled at Roza Dam/Yakima R.) were much bigger in 2008 than in
prior years
Post-eye Lengths of Jacks at Roza Dam
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58
POH length (cm)
Nu
mb
er o
f Ja
cks
2000
2001
2008
2007
Adjusting the predictor model for these two variables results in much greater
forecast accuracy for years since 2001
Performance of Model Using Jacks, Jack POH length, and NOAA Ocean Rank to predict Col. R. Mth Run Size (model uses 2001-2009 adult/2000-2008 jack/1999-2007
juvenile migration year ocean data)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Actual Predicted Old Model
Percentage of Age-3 PIT Detections at Bonn. Dam per released PIT-Tagged Yakima wild and CESRF* Spring Chinook by brood
year (BY06 detections as of 6/10/09)
0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Brood Year
% A
ge
-3 D
ete
cti
on
s
pe
r P
ITs
Re
lea
se
d
Wild CESRF
* CESRF = Cle Elum Supplementation and Research Facility
YKFP Deliverables
Updates on the Other Salmon Enhancement– Coho Reintroduction– Fall Chinook Supplementation– Summer Chinook Reintroduction– Steelhead Monitoring
Other Salmonid Programs
Updates on the Other Programs– Bull Trout Status and Genetics– Steelhead Kelt Reconditioning– Steelhead Population Monitoring– Sockeye Reintroduction
Wildlife Programs
Updates on the Other Programs– Wildlife and I-90 Construction– Elk and Agriculture– Spotted Owls– Cougars
Habitat Programs– Climate Change and water– Water Storage– Flow Issues – Water Quality– Nutrients– Cottonwood Restoration– Groundwater Issues– Large Woody Replenishment– Floods– Tributary Access Panel
Welcome To Central Washington University and the Yakima Basin Science
and Management Conference
Overview of Habitat ActivitiesAlex Conley YBFWRB
Keynote SpeakerRob Walton
Assistant Regional Administratorfor Salmon Recovery
NOAA Fisheries