conducting workforce studies & using real-time lmi in research

Conducting Workforce Studies & Using Real-time LMI in Research

Real-Time LMI Research Case Studies

Identifying Hard to Fill Stem Occupations The Conference Board

Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL)

Labor Market Statistics Center

Using Real Time HWOL Job Ads in Determining Hard to Fill Stem Occupations

Florida’s LMS uses Wanted Analytic’s monthly FTP download of HWOL Job Ads in its new expanded Supply/Demand Report

The file contains job ads data by occupation by area (State, MSA, & County- we add workforce regions as another area)

The file has Total Job Ads, as well as the number that are New Ads and the number that are Old (reposted) Job Ads

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LMS examined Florida Stem Jobs for a four month period (June – September 2011)

Reviewed in quintile rank order, the proportion of Old Ads to the number of Total Ads in attempt to use the metric as a way to identify “Hard to Fill Jobs”

Using Real Time HWOL Job Ads in Determining Hard to Fill Stem

Occupations (cont’d)

5th Quintile= Hardest to fill 4th Quintile= Hard to fill 3rd Quintile= between Easy and Hard to fill2nd Quintile= Easy to fill 1ST Quintile – Easiest to fill

FLORIDA STEM OCCUPATIONS - HELP WANTED ONLINE JOB ADS WITH VOLUME INDICATED

YEAR MONTH SOC OCCUPATION in SOC and MONTH ORDER TOTAL VOLUME

VOLUMENEW

VOLUME OLD

FL EDUCATION LEVEL CODE

2011 6 113021Computer and Information Systems Managers 860 445 415 4




2011 6 113051Industrial Production Managers 160 89 71 4




2011 6 119011Farm, Ranch, and Other Agricultural Managers 16 11 5 4




2011 6 119021 Construction Managers 332 213 119 42011 7 119021 Construction Managers 345 263 82 42011 8 119021 Construction Managers 371 271 100 42011 9 119021 Construction Managers 348 246 102 42011 6 119041 Engineering Managers 412 234 178 52011 7 119041 Engineering Managers 372 200 172 52011 8 119041 Engineering Managers 341 189 152 52011 9 119041 Engineering Managers 347 195 152 5

Real Time HWOL STEM Job Ads were collected by Occupation for 4 months*…

* June – September 2011

SOC STEM OCCUPATION IN SOC ORDERTOTAL HWOL

JOB Ads NEW Ads OLD Ads

*FL EDUC. CODE

% of OLD JOB Ads in TOTAL

Ads

291111 Registered Nurses 52469 29171 23298 4 44.40%

291122 Occupational Therapists 15234 11480 3754 6 24.64%

291123 Physical Therapists 18274 13434 4840 6 26.49%

291127 Speech-Language Pathologists 8513 6152 2361 6 27.73%

292033 Nuclear Medicine Technologists 110 64 46 4 41.82%

292051 Dietetic Technicians 78 36 42 3 53.85%

292061 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nur 6269 3949 2320 3 37.01%

292071 Medical Records and Health Information Technic 3229 1926 1303 4 40.35%

312011 Occupational Therapist Assistants 9811 7339 2472 4 25.20%

The 4 Months of HWOL job ads data then aggregated together by occupation----

* 1= Less than HS 2=High School 3=PSAV 4= AS, AAS 5= BACHELORS 6=MASTERS’ and UP

SOCSTEM OCCUPATION ranked by % of OLD Volume in

TOTALTOTAL HWOL

JOB Ads NEW AdsOLD Ads

*FL EDUC. CODE

% of OLD JOB Ads in TOTAL Ads

172171 Petroleum Engineers 179 54 125 5 69.83%172161 Nuclear Engineers 167 56 111 5 66.47%191029 Biological Scientists, All Other 23 8 15 5 65.22%192043 Hydrologists 14 3 9 5 64.29%191020 Biological Scientists 60 23 37 5 61.67%192012 Physicists 44 17 27 6 61.36%194093 Forest and Conservation Technicians 73 29 44 3 60.27%191032 Foresters 80 33 47 4 58.75%291062 Family and General Practitioners 3177 1334 1843 6 58.01%191013 Soil and Plant Scientists 22 5 12 5 54.55%291051 Pharmacists 3323 1515 1808 6 54.41%191041 Epidemiologists 46 21 25 6 54.35%292051 Dietetic Technicians 78 36 42 3 53.85%191023 Zoologists and Wildlife Biologists 97 45 52 5 53.61%251032 Engineering Teachers, Postsecondary 147 69 78 6 53.06%152021 Mathematicians 38 18 20 6 52.63%251041 Agricultural Sciences Teachers, Postsecondary 42 20 22 5 52.38%172131 Materials Engineers 122 60 62 5 50.82%131199 Business Operations Specialists, All Other 2101 1039 1062 4 50.55%172011 Aerospace Engineers 909 454 455 5 50.06%251071 Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary 865 434 431 6 49.83%251042 Biological Science Teachers, Postsecondary 311 159 152 6 48.87%172112 Industrial Engineers 5101 2622 2479 5 48.60%192031 Chemists 288 150 138 5 47.92%251021 Computer Science Teachers, Postsecondary 272 142 130 5 47.79%

{ Occupations above appearing to be hardest to fill -5th quintile} 17579 8346 9226 52.48%

The Job Ads then ranked & ordered by % of Old ads in Total Ads - by Quintile Level Occupations appearing to be hardest to fill – 5th Quintile

152031 Operations Research Analysts 1495 782 713 6 47.69%172141 Mechanical Engineers 2549 1343 1206 5 47.31%172041 Chemical Engineers 142 75 67 5 47.18%172061 Computer Hardware Engineers 513 271 242 5 47.17%191042 Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists 1365 722 643 6 47.11%113021 Computer and Information Systems Managers 3149 1671 1478 4 46.94%151032 Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 1275 684 591 5 46.35%192041 Environmental Scientists and Specialists, Incl 194 106 88 5 45.36%113051 Industrial Production Managers 589 322 267 4 45.33%151011 Computer and Information Scientists, Research 148 81 67 6 45.27%172072 Electronics Engineers, Except Computer 887 487 400 5 45.10%493011 Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians 1069 592 477 3 44.62%151061 Database Administrators 3525 1957 1568 4 44.48%119041 Engineering Managers 1472 818 654 5 44.43%291111 Registered Nurses 52469 29171 23298 4 44.40%152041 Statisticians 154 86 68 5 44.16%518091 Chemical Plant and System Operators 34 19 15 3 44.12%172081 Environmental Engineers 433 242 191 5 44.11%172071 Electrical Engineers 2336 1316 1020 5 43.66%191031 Conservation Scientists 101 57 44 5 43.56%132011 Accountants and Auditors 12708 7194 5514 4 43.39%151051 Computer Systems Analysts 15059 8538 6521 4 43.30%291031 Dietitians and Nutritionists 824 468 356 5 43.20%151031 Computer Software Engineers, Applications 7216 4113 3103 4 43.00%251011 Business Teachers, Postsecondary 398 227 171 5 42.96%151071 Network and Computer Systems Administrators 9971 5691 4280 4 42.92%

{ Occupations above appearing to be hard to fill -4th quintile} 120075 67033 53042 44.17%

SOC STEM OCCUPATION ranked by % of OLD Volume in TOTALTOTAL HWOL


*FL EDUC. CODE


Ads

Occupations appearing to be hard to fill - 4th Quintile

172111 Health and Safety Engineers, Except Mining Saf 429 245 184 5 42.89%251022 Mathematical Science Teachers, Postsecondary 237 136 101 6 42.62%291071 Physician Assistants 2466 1418 1048 5 42.50%173026 Industrial Engineering Technicians 509 293 216 3 42.44%151081 Network Systems and Data Communications Analys 1743 1004 739 3 42.40%292033 Nuclear Medicine Technologists 110 64 46 4 41.82%492091 Avionics Technicians 622 362 260 3 41.80%251192 Home Economics Teachers, Postsecondary 12 7 5 5 41.67%192042 Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geograp 85 50 35 5 41.18%119199 Managers, All Other 1906 1123 783 4 41.08%151021 Computer Programmers 6135 3655 2480 3 40.42%173023 Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technici 1173 699 474 4 40.41%292071 Medical Records and Health Information Technic 3229 1926 1303 4 40.35%173027 Mechanical Engineering Technicians 131 79 52 4 39.69%132099 Financial Specialists, All Other 205 125 80 3 39.02%191022 Microbiologists 54 33 21 6 38.89%192021 Atmospheric and Space Scientists 18 10 7 5 38.89%151099 Computer Specialists, All Other 27472 16869 10603 3 38.60%119121 Natural Sciences Managers 367 227 140 5 38.15%172051 Civil Engineers 1366 846 520 5 38.07%251031 Architecture Teachers, Postsecondary 32 20 12 6 37.50%172031 Biomedical Engineers 75 47 28 5 37.33%172199 Engineers, All Other 263 165 98 5 37.26%131041 Compliance Officers, Except Agriculture, Const 540 339 201 3 37.22%194031 Chemical Technicians 86 54 32 4 37.21%292061 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nur 6269 3949 2320 3 37.01%

{ Occup.'s above appearing between easy and hard to fill - 3rd quintile} 55534 33745 21788 39.23%



*FL EDUC. CODE


Ads

Occupation’s appearing between easy and hard to fill - 3rd Quintile

194099 Life, Physical, and Social Science Technicians 104 66 38 4 36.54%151041 Computer Support Specialists 11148 7129 4019 3 36.05%173021 Aerospace Engineering and Operations Technicians 14 9 5 4 35.71%514012 Numerical Tool and Process Control Programmers 220 142 78 3 35.45%194021 Biological Technicians 334 216 118 4 35.33%194051 Nuclear Technicians 47 31 16 4 34.04%172121 Marine Engineers and Naval Architects 163 108 55 5 33.74%194091 Environmental Science and Protection Technicia 360 240 120 3 33.33%173022 Civil Engineering Technicians 164 112 52 4 31.71%173029 Engineering Technicians, Except Drafters, All 117 80 37 4 31.62%536051 Transportation Inspectors 100 69 31 2 31.00%119011 Farm, Ranch, and Other Agricultural Managers 84 58 26 4 30.95%319092 Medical Assistants 5315 3697 1618 3 30.44%192032 Materials Scientists 40 28 12 5 30.00%194011 Agricultural and Food Science Technicians 48 34 14 4 29.17%119021 Construction Managers 1396 993 403 4 28.87%451011 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Farming, Fi 133 95 38 4 28.57%512023 Electromechanical Equipment Assemblers 217 155 62 3 28.57%251052 Chemistry Teachers, Postsecondary 89 64 25 6 28.09%251054 Physics Teachers, Postsecondary 57 41 16 6 28.07%291127 Speech-Language Pathologists 8513 6152 2361 6 27.73%312021 Physical Therapist Assistants 6505 4726 1779 4 27.35%291123 Physical Therapists 18274 13434 4840 6 26.49%171011 Architects, Except Landscape and Naval 214 158 56 6 26.17%251051 Atmospheric, Earth, Marine, and Space Sciences 50 37 13 6 26.00%251053 Environmental Science Teachers, Postsecondary 31 23 8 5 25.81%

{ Occupations above appearing to be easy to fill - 2nd quintile} 53737 37897 15840 29.48%



*FL EDUC. CODE


Ads

Occupations appearing to be easy to fill - 2nd Quintile

131051 Cost Estimators 726 539 187 4 25.76%152011 Actuaries 113 84 29 5 25.66%312011 Occupational Therapist Assistants 9811 7339 2472 4 25.20%493023 Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 5813 4354 1459 3 25.10%172151 Mining and Geological Engineers, Including Min 32 24 8 5 25.00%192011 Astronomers 4 2 1 5 25.00%291122 Occupational Therapists 15234 11480 3754 6 24.64%519011 Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders 13 8 3 2 23.08%173011 Architectural and Civil Drafters 250 196 54 3 21.60%173025 Environmental Engineering Technicians 227 178 49 4 21.59%191012 Food Scientists and Technologists 77 62 15 5 19.48%171022 Surveyors 81 66 15 4 18.52%271024 Graphic Designers 2469 2062 407 4 16.48%319091 Dental Assistants 2397 2044 353 3 14.73%439111 Statistical Assistants 8 7 1 3 12.50%513092 Food Batchmakers 35 31 4 1 11.43%499099 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers 607 547 60 2 9.88%453011 Fishers and Related Fishing Workers 56 51 5 2 8.93%454011 Forest and Conservation Workers 57 53 4 4 7.02%172021 Agricultural Engineers 3 2 0 5 0.00%191011 Animal Scientists 4 3 0 5 0.00%191021 Biochemists and Biophysicists 2 1 0 6 0.00%193099 Social Scientists and Related Workers, All Other 8 4 0 5 0.00%333031 Fish and Game Wardens 2 2 0 3 0.00%152091 Mathematical Technicians 0 0 0 4 N/A

Occupations above appearing to be easiest to fill…. 38029 29139 8880 23.35%



*FL EDUC. CODE


Occupations appearing to be easiest to fill - 1st quintile

SOC STEM OCCUPATION

TOTAL HWOL

JOB Ads NEW AdsOLD Ads


Categories % of ALL

STEM ADS

*** Aggregation results by difficulty in filling category ***

Occupations appearing to be hardest to fill -5th quintile 17579 8346 9226 52.48% 6.17%

Occupations appearing to be hard to fill -4th quintile 120075 67033 53042 44.17% 42.14%

Occupations appearing to be between easy and hard to fill – 3rd quintile 55534 33745 21788 39.23% 19.49%

Occupations appearing to be easy to fill - 2nd quintile 53737 37897 15840 29.48% 18.86%

Occupations appearing to be easist to fill - 1st quintile 38029 29139 8880 23.35% 13.35%

284,954 176,160 108776 38.17% 100%

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Possible Reasons for Reposted Ads…

Employers not able to find qualified applicants with desired skills

Employers not able to attract applicants due to the salary they offered

Seasonality may affect supply (e.g., teachers normally hired at start of school year, available supply is much more limited during academic year)

Headhunters fishing for resumes may be cause for some reposted ads

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Next Steps…

• More work and research needs to be undertaken to determine if job ad age can be used as an indicator for identifying hard–to-fill occupations

• The HWOL system now offers a “Job Ad Age Filter” that can be used to examine individual occupational ad ages by 30, 60, 90, 120, 180 & 360 days

• More exploration is needed using these ad age indicators and filters

Real-Time LMI

May 2012


Real-Time LMIHelp Wanted OnLine ™ (HWOL)

• States are to train workers for jobs in demand, according to the Workforce Investment Act

• What are states to do in the depths of a recession when traditional LMI shows little or no jobs in demand? – Traditional LMI is based on net job gains and losses

by month– In Florida, during the recession all industries were in

decline except healthcare– Could all of Florida’s one million unemployed work

in healthcare?

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Real-Time LMIHelp Wanted OnLine ™ (HWOL)

• States need to catch the churning in the job market

• Industries with a net decline in employment still have hiring needs

• The answer: Real-Time LMI

– Conference Board; Help-Wanted OnLine (HWOL)

– Geographic Solutions; Employ Florida Marketplace

• Real-Time LMI is unduplicated job openings (ads) by occupation obtained by spidering technology

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Benefits of Real-Time LMI

• Currency (continuously updated)• Geographically comprehensive

• Nation, State, MSA, County, City

• Actual posted openings—not an estimate• Has proven to be a leading indicator• May include new and emerging occupations• Useful for keyword searches

• Industry specific searches• STEM

• Supplement to traditional LMI—not a replacement

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How Real-Time LMI Helps WIBsQuotes from Mason Jackson, President/CEO

WorkForce One, Fort Lauderdale Workforce Board

• HWOL helps the local board be the “go to” for the media

– Describe what is happening in the local economy NOW• Finds out which employers are hiring for what

– Use for hiring leads/reemployment

– Use for contact for services

– Use for business outreach• Helps the board be relevant

– Establish the board in the community As a source of information As a source of services

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Additional Uses of Real-Time LMI

• Drives training decisions for occupations in demand

• Adds value to partnerships with economic development/education– New source of information for site selection consultants– Helpful information for community colleges

• Identifies economic recovery trends in cities and regions

• Helps board be proactive with news media

– Timely information– Ready-to-go charts and tables

• Allows career counselors to target employment opportunities by education level and salary

• Supports supply/demand model with a real-time demand indicator

• Provides an indicator of hard-to-fill job openings

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Real-Time LMI Help-Wanted OnLine

Occupations In Demand

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Top Advertised Occupations for Florida-April 2012Online AdsApril 2012

Online AdsApril 2011

Florida Total Ads 243,594 243,791 Registered Nurses 15,303 15,963 Retail Salespersons 9,623 9,265 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers 7,467 7,282 Customer Service Representatives 6,189 6,341 First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Prep & Serving Wkrs 5,615 3,541 Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 4,708 3,878 Sales Reps, Whlse & Mfg, Except Technical and Scientific Products 4,132 4,580 Computer Systems Analysts 4,119 3,674 Web Developers 4,099 3,821 Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 3,822 3,651 Occupational Therapists 3,794 5,190 Physical Therapists 3,788 6,545 First-Line Supervisors/Mgrs of Offi ce & Admin Support Wkrs 3,628 2,926 Telemarketers 3,209 3,509 Medical and Health Services Managers 3,147 4,053 Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 3,044 2,885 Computer Support Specialists 2,845 2,914 Accountants 2,794 2,393 Sales Agents, Financial Services 2,729 3,002 Insurance Sales Agents 2,660 2,827

Real-Time LMIHelp Wanted OnLine™

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150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

220,000

230,000

240,000

250,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Online

ads

Unemploy

ment

Labor Supply vs. Labor Demand

Unemployment (supply)

HWOL Ads (demand)

SOURCE: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine data series.

Real-Time LMIHelp Wanted OnLine™

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150000

170000

190000

210000

230000

250000

270000

290000

6,700,000

6,900,000

7,100,000

7,300,000

7,500,000

7,700,000

7,900,000

8,100,000

Online

Ads

Employ

ment

Employment vs. Labor Demand

Employment

Online Ads (demand)

SOURCE: The Conference Board, Help Wanted OnLine data series.

Real-Time LMI Help-Wanted OnLineCities With Most Online Ads

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Cities With the Most AdsOnline Ads

April 2012Online Ads

April 2011Percentage

ChangeOrlando 31,579 29,401 7%Miami 31,298 28,679 9%Tampa 22,156 21,727 2%Jacksonville 19,991 19,787 1%Fort Lauderdale 9,618 9,890 -3%Fort Myers 8,859 8,563 3%Sarasota 6,286 6,370 -1%St. Petersburg 5,258 5,216 1%West Palm Beach 4,893 4,825 1%Boca Raton 4,858 4,296 13%Tallahassee 4,634 4,879 -5%Pensacola 4,449 4,504 -1%Lakeland 4,401 3,730 18%Gainesville 4,332 3,908 11%Daytona Beach 4,194 4,018 4%

Real-Time LMI Help-Wanted OnLine

Employers With the Most Online Ads

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EmployerOnline Ads

April 2012Staples 1,458 Pizza Hut 573 Bank Of America 556 IBM 534 Wells Fargo 486 Marriott International 430 JoS. A. BANK 409 CITI 375 Macy's 366 SunTrust Banks 352 JCPenney 344 Marriott 342 Taco Bell 333 Kmart Corporation 331 Tenet 323

Help Wanted OnLine™A Leading Economic Indicator?

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FLORIDA’S EXPANDED SUPPLY / DEMAND REPORT Funded by the Workforce Data Quality Initiative (WDQI)

May 2012


Florida’s Supply/Demand Model The indicators of potential labor supply by occupation are :

• WIA training enrollees and completers

• School District postsecondary vocational/technical enrollees and completers

• Florida College System (formerly Community colleges) enrollees and completers

• Commission on Independent Education - private education and workforce enrollees and completers

• Florida Public University graduates

• Jobseekers with known desired occupations(real-time indicator)

The indicators of occupational demand are:

For Short-Term Analysis

• The Conference Board’s Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) data series of monthly job ad openings or;

• Monthly job openings from the state’s job bank – Employ Florida MarketPlace (EFM)

For Long-Term Analysis

• OES projected openings by occupation

Other informational data available are:

• Projected annual average occupational openings including entry, median and experienced wages

• Targeted Occupations List (TOL) indicator

• Enterprise Florida’s Targeted Industry Cluster indicator

The timing for data updates for the Supply/Demand web application are:

• WIA, Jobseekers and Help Wanted OnLine job ads - Monthly

• Public Education - Annually Term-by-term coming soon

• Private Education - Annually

• OES Projections - Annually

• Enrollees may or may not complete training

• Completers may already have a job or may have moved out of the geographic area

• Jobseekers may or may not be qualified for the job they are seeking

• Approximately 1/2 of all jobseekers have their desired occupation identified in the system

DATA CAVEATS

• Job openings only include internet job ad postings (not all jobs are posted on the internet)

• The job ads have been de-duplicated but some duplicates still exist

• Time frames for supply and demand data elements differ

• District and Florida College System enrollees and completers are based on supply in the workforce region and are not statewide based

• University graduates are statewide only and cannot be parsed to workforce regions; the statewide report does include University graduates in supply

DATA CAVEATS (CONT’D)

• The Targeted Occupations List (TOL) for 2010-11 is based on long term projections to the year 2019 which assume economic recovery; some of these occupations are still in current decline due to the economic downturn

• Some occupations are typically hired at specific times of the year, such as teachers, agricultural related occupations, and others

• Information may be known at the local level that should be considered when using the occupational supply demand data, such as incoming or expanding firm(s)

DATA CAVEATS (CONT’D)

Computer Systems Analysts Labor Supply / Demand Indicators by Occupation

SUPPLY DEMAND Occupation DetailsWIA Training Enrollees 410

Job AdsFor Short Term Analysis

Help Wanted OnLine – 3,823

Current Employment22,322

School District Enrollees96 OR Projected Employment

26,113

College System Enrollees4,071

For Long Term AnalysisProjected Average Annual

Openings 945

Projected Annual Avg. Openings 945

WIA Training Completers26

Short term—demand > supply Entry, Median, Exp. Wage$23.24 $34.00 $40.73

School District Completers15

Long term—demand > supply Targeted Occupation? YES

College System Completers277

Targeted Industry Cluster? YES

Public University GraduatesN/AJobseekers - 1,114 (ST only)ST TOTAL SUPPLY = 1,432LT TOTAL SUPPLY = 318

Florida Department of Economic OpportunityLabor Market Statistics Center

Caldwell BuildingMSC G-020

107 E. Madison StreetTallahassee, Florida 32399-4111

Phone (850) 245-7257

Rebecca [email protected]

www.floridajobs.org/lmsc www.floridawages.com

http://www.whatpeopleareasking.com/index.shtm

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http://www.floridajobs.org/lmsc

http://www.floridawages.com/

http://www.whatpeopleareasking.com/index.shtm

conducting workforce studies & using real-time lmi in research

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