DIME – FRAGILE STATESDUBAI, MAY 31 – JUNE 4

Concept note for Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF)Tanvir Hussain (GM ERD, PPAF)Hassan Akbar (ME ERD, PPAF)Aleena Naseem (ME ERD, PPAF) Imtiaz Alvi (World Bank – TTL) Nethra Palaniswamy (IFPRI)

Project description

ScaleWorking in 126(of 130) districts with 84 Partner

Organizations3rd Phase with USD 250 m budgetComponents Social Mobilization & Institutional building

Formation of inclusive Community Based Orgs, federation of COs at different levels

Livelihood Enhancement & Protection Productive asset transfers to Ultra-Poor, Livelihood

skills training and Community Livelihood Fund Micro-credit Access

Micro-credit, enterprise loans, and enterprise training

Basic Services & Infrastructure Health, Education, Water & other community

infrastructure

Research questions

Has the project been able to affect household income, consumption and production?

Has the project succeeded in enhancing the following assets of its target beneficiaries:Financial, Physical, Human, Social, Natural

Has the project been able to increase access to basic services and infrastructure?

Has the project been able to improve community level institutions in terms of their social capital, empowerment, and governance?

Has the project been able to reduce vulnerability and improve food security, resilience to external shocks and reintegrate and rehabilitate conflict affected communities?

Indicators

Household income, consumption, food consumption and household assets

Agricultural production and non-farm enterprises (gender disaggregated)

Access to drinking water, roads, sanitation, irrigation schemes, and education and health facilities

Linkages and access to other public and private service providers

Participation of poor and women in community institutions

Reconstruction of conflict affected infrastructure and rehabilitation of communities

Identification strategy

Basic sampling unit: Settlement Randomly assigned treatment and control

settlements, based on phasing. Several baseline and impact evaluations

staggered over 5 cohorts, same households interviewed at 3 points of time.

Difference-in-difference method for analysis, use of IV for any possible contamination.

Results augmented with monitoring reports and data.

Poverty scorecard to identify the poor and track poverty levels in the assessment areas.

Sample

A representative sample taking care of geographic spread, partner diversity, financial weight of interventions, and multitude of components and interventions will remain a challenge.

Sample to be stratified to ensure adequate representation of each cateogry.

Sample is expected to provide statistically valid results at the project level.

Based on final stratificaton, 95% confidence level, and ±3% error margin, a representative sample of settlements and households to be selected.

Based on the above parameters, an estimated 384 settlements (192 treatment, 192 control) to be covered

And an estimated 4,000 treatment (and 4,000 control) households will be interviewed

Timeline

Treatment and control groups for each cohort of baseline, mid-term and end-term surveys; Use of cohort fixed effects mehtod to account for variability over cohorts.

To supplement the evaluation, Case Studies to be conducted at various points of time, and User Surveys to be conducted at the end of each financial year.

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1Baseline 1 Mid-Term 1 End-Term 1

Baseline 2 Mid-Term 2 End-Term 2Baseline 3 Mid-Term 3 End-Term 3

Baseline 4 Mid-Term 4 End-Term 4Baseline 5 Mid-Term 5 End-Term 5

FY 2014-15FY 2009-10 FY 2010-11 FY 2011-12 FY 2012-13 FY 2013-14

Impact evaluation team

ERD Unit – PPAFWorld Bank PPAF Project TeamDIME TeamConsultants

Estimated budget

Estimated cost: 1 million USD (approximately)

A portion of the financing from project funds

Seek remaining funds from DIME, national, regional, and global sources

Existing MoU with premier academic institutions.

Similar linkages to be established with international institutions seeking partnership

Thank you