concept definition phase for clean electric power systems
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Concept Definition Phase for Clean Electric Power Systems. Apollo lessons. “ We will put a man on the moon before the end of the decade and return him safely to earth ” JFK May 25, 1961. Start with the ultimate goal Characterize alternative systems Choose a direction. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Concept Definition Phase for
Clean Electric Power Systems
Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Page 1 4/3/2014
Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Apollo lessons
• Start with the ultimate goal
• Characterize alternative systems
• Choose a direction
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“We will put a man on the moon before the end of the decade and return him safely to earth”
JFK May 25, 1961
Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Clean Energy goal confusion
• These are not performance goals but technology options
• Assumes that systems scale, the achievement can be incorporated into larger scale systems
• Confused by politics and public perceptions
Future of Energy objective
• Focus on the ultimate objective and whole systems– Derive interim goals derived
from ultimate objectives• Big reductions are inevitable
– Fossil fuel is a finite resource• Flexible time frame
– Sooner is better for health & environment
– Climate change may accelerate schedule
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Big (90%) reduction in fossil fuel consumption
30% renewables by 203020% wind by 2020
…
Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Classic concept definition• Given ultimate goals• Develop system concept models to explore, contrast, compare
alternative feasible solutions• Provide Society with factual feasible choices (m/s B)• Follow on phases can be agile
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Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Allocated wind power goals
• Compatible with clean, (10% fossil fuel) systems
• Reliable electric power systems
• Competitive cost
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Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Wincharger system• Zenith Radio “farm” (DC) radio
– ~ 750,000 systems 1930-1940s
• Provided farmers with quality radio!– Radio was most expensive
component– Battery sized for 4 days storage– High electricity cost ~ $2/kWh– Unreliable during July-August
• Did not survive rural electrification
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Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Wind systems are inefficient
• Robust systems come from interconnection of a large number of independent generators
• Reliable clean wind systems require– Full redundancy – Overbuilding wind– Additional
transmission assets.
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Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Wind + fossil fuel + storage*
Paper summary• 0.1% fossil fuel system for PJM
region appears to be technically feasible
• 3x wind energy overbuild, discard 2/3 of electricity
• ~ 24 hours storage• Full peak power fossil fuel backup
~8 hrs/yr• Stated cost ~ 38¢/kWh
Critique• Extreme events (July) drive system size• $0.38/kWh cost estimate is optimistic
(>$0.67/kWh)• Large environmental impact ~24,000 sq
miles, the size of West Virginia • Concept is sound but needs classical
concept development
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* Budischak, et al, Cost minimized combinations of wind, solar, storage, Journal of Power Sources 225, 2013, pp. 60-74
Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Basis for system concept trades
• PJM published wind & load data– CY2012
• EIA published cost estimates, – New 2018 installations– Wind, natural gas, nuclear
• 15% reserve margin• No wind contribution to
system capacity– Full redundancy
• No transmission constraints
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PJM load 2012
Curtailment begins at 25%
Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
All natural gas system• Reference
scenario– 100% emissions
• Cost includes system reserves
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Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014
Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
NG + wind + ideal storage• Add wind + ideal storage
• Concept limit
• Ideal storage– Large size, zero cost, 100%
efficient– 100% of wind generation
displaces natural gas– Line slopes up to the right
because wind capital cost exceeds Ngas variable cost
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Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014
Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Wind without storage
• Curtailment at PJM 2012– Begins at 26%– Bites at 50%
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Curtailed system cost
Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014
Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Grid scale storage• Storage size is 2,135
GWh– One day at average load
• Estimated cost $200 $/kWh based on Bath Co, VA pumped hydro facility– 1,000 ft vertical elevation– 0.4 sq mile upper
reservoir– 105’ level change
• 80% round trip efficiency
• 68 Bath county facilities required
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Storage system impact
Storage state of charge
Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014
Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Nuclear power
• Nuclear follows daily minimum
• Diurnal variations– All Ngas– Ngas & hot water
storage
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Nuclear model
Nuclear on system cost/performance
Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014
Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Comparison with Budischak
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Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014
Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Retail electricity prices• MD at 8% renewables,
mostly hydro pays 11 cts/kWh
• Germany with 25% renewables pays 36 cts/kWh
• Something is missing!
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Portions of this figure are taken from a paper by Gourdazi, Pavlak, “Concept trades for wind Energy Systems” accepted by ASME Power 2014 conference, July 2014
Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Conclusions• Focus on
– Ultimate goals– Complete systems
• To do– Transmission upgrades internal to the system– Congestion induced curtailment– Multiple years– Multiple regions– Storage parameter variation– Add solar PV– EIA cost refinement
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Dr. Alex Pavlak; Future of Energy Initiative; 315 Dunham Ct., Severna Park, MD 21146-1670; (410)647-7334; [email protected]; http://sites.google.com/site/futureofenergyinitiative
Join the [email protected]
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