comprehensive plan concepts august [draft]

7/23/2019 Comprehensive Plan Concepts August [Draft]

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Comprehensive Plan Discussion NotesErie, PA - czb/MIG

DRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USEDistribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTE


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FINDINGS



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Medium sized American City of ~100,000



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Medium sized American City of 20 sq. miles

3 mi

6+ mi



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Historic but severelycompromiseddowntown



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National treasure inPresque Isle Park butwhich is accessible

without meaningfulpassage through Erie



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Efficient commuterexpressway but whichseparates downtownfrom Bayfront



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Promising regional

economy butundermined by a severeurban-suburban divide



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Promising regional


Promising opportunitiesthat must also confront asevere racial divide



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Promising regional



Poorly maintainedinfrastructure and

unsightly entryways






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Promising regional




unsightly entryways Very promising Bayfront

disconnected from the

citys historic core




DRAFTCONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USEDistribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTE


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Promising regional




unsightly entryways Very promising Bayfront

disconnected from the

citys historic core Whole slew of middle

income folks have onefoot out the door and arecounty-oriented inmaterial ways




DRAFTCONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USEDistribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTE


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45,000 housing units, and25% (9,000) are inridiculously terriblecondition



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Serious trouble and beyondrecovery without radical

intervention



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Deeply distressedmanufacturing corridor andCRITICAL TO ERIES FUTURE



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Distressed and possiblyrecoverable over time, but notcritical to near future of Erie



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Momentarily stable, but @ riskand critical to Eries future



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Momentarily stable, but @ riskand unquestionably critical toEries future



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MISSION CRITICAL AREA OF ERIEREQUIRING RADICAL RETHINKING



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SEVERE DISTRESS



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SEVERE DISTRESSMISSION CRITICAL AREA OF ERIEREQUIRING INCENTIVE-DRIVENREINVESTMENT



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OPTION SETS



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OPTION SETS

1. Address market problem (S>D) and sizingchallenges together in a grand bargain

2. Primarily focus on blight eradication and

excess supply and do so aggressively3. Use existing tools, but moderately adjust themupwards in intensity and deployment manner

4. Status Quo



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REGARDLESS OF WHICH OPTION OR MIX/MATCH

Now AlternativePrinciples

Resource Deployment Diffused Concentrated

Prioritization Worst First Middle Market

Metrics Outputs Outcomes

Payment Other Self

Reinvestment Habit NA Strong

Focus Need oriented Demand oriented

Results

Poverty Concentrated Scattered

Socio-Economics Bottom Heavy Middle Heavy

Population < 100,000 falling and weak < 100,000 stable

Market - $600MDRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USEDistribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTE


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REGARDLESS OF WHICH OPTION OR MIX/MATCH

Give-Get

Now AlternativePrinciples

Resource Deployment Diffused Concentrated

Prioritization Worst First Middle Market

Metrics Outputs Outcomes

Payment Other Self

Reinvestment Habit NA Strong

Focus Need oriented Demand oriented

Results

Poverty Concentrated Scattered

Socio-Economics Bottom Heavy Middle Heavy

Population < 100,000 falling and weak < 100,000 stable

Market - $600MDRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USEDistribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTE


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Option 1 for Erie: Address Size and Market Together



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Addition of Oglethorpe System and Iconic Bayfront Redesign



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Focus on Downtown, Downtown/Bayfront, & 12th/State



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Bike Lanes/Trails Connecting Bayfront, Parks, Downtown



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Adapting Models Used in Seattle and Philadelphia to Bayfront



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Adapting Economic Models from St. Louis + Manchester UK



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Creating Savannah/DC Park System



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Healthy NeighborhoodsApproach

Demolition, Banking, Infill +Resident Leadership Development



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Implementation ofDowntown Plan



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Implementation ofDowntown Plan

Innovation District

Connection



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Option 2 for Erie: Really Focus on the Excess Supply Problem



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Establishment of Central Park as Rightsizing/Stabilization Tool



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Focus on Downtown w Massive Decommissioning



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Focus on Downtown w Massive Decommissioning


MarketRateInfill


Resizes infrastructure and housing


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Resizes infrastructure and housingstocks and pairs S-D goals withdowntown stabilization and Bayfrontconnection objectives


Resizes infrastructure and housing


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AND STILL REQUIRES enormoussections of the city to be rethoughtentirely


Resizes infrastructure and housingN d d i


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AND STILL REQUIRES enormoussections of the city to be rethoughtentirely

Needs and accompanyingmiddle market strategy forholding steady (about 10,000 HHs)



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Option 3 for Erie: Modest Adjustments to Current Approaches


F I I di t T l t Add D d P bl


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Focus on Image as Indirect Tool to Address Demand Problem



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Modified Code Enforcement



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Modified Code Enforcement Modified Policing



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Modified Code Enforcement Modified Policing Modified Approach to Stabilizing Middle Market



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Continue On-Going Work Downtown



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Continue On-Going Work Downtown Shift from W-F to Key Visibility for Infrastructure Upgrades


A blend will be needed of several aspects of


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pseveral approaches but this much is clear


A blend will be needed of several aspects of


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- Erie is in real trouble and business as usual will not dig Erie out and digging out requires

- Reinvesting in downtownDRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USEDistribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTE

A blend will be need of several aspects of


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- Reinvesting in downtown- Properly connecting downtown to the BayfrontDRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USEDistribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTE



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several approaches but this much is clear


- Reinvesting in downtown- Properly connecting downtown to the Bayfront- Addressing massive blight problems




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- Reinvesting in downtown- Properly connecting downtown to the Bayfront- Addressing massive blight problems- Rebuilding middle market confidence

DRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USE

Distribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTE



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- Reinvesting in downtown- Properly connecting downtown to the Bayfront- Addressing massive blight problems- Rebuilding middle market confidence- Developing economic strategies that are labor market, contextual, and place basedDRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USE




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- Erie is in a real bind and business as usual will not dig Erie out and digging out requires

- Reinvesting in downtown- Properly connecting downtown to the Bayfront- Addressingmassive blightproblems- Rebuildingmiddle marketconfidence- Developingeconomic strategiesthat are labor market, contextual, and place based- Catch up and keep up on infrastructure

DRAFT CONCEPTS ONLY - NOT FOR USEDistribution or Reproduction is NOT PERMITTED


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Bottom Line




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~ 6,600 valueless structures x $22,000 to acquire and demolish = $150M

~ 300 miles of roads and infrastructure x $500,000/mi = $150M



Market Rate Redevelopment Challenges = $200M


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Relocation challenge = $50-100M

p C g $




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Economic Development = $50-$200M $130,000/mi (avg)




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Public Safety

Officers/10,000people

Annual

Erie 19.5 -17.85 $90,000 $1,606,500

Camden 40.6

37.35

Youngstown 29.4

Detroit 40.8

Pittsburgh 30.3

Buffalo 35.2

Philadelphia 47.8




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Redevelopment of Bayfront - $75-$100M




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Bottom Line




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Big Challenges


comprehensive plan concepts august [draft]

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