compoex (conflict modeling, planning, and outcomes experimentation) bae systems dr. craig lawrence...
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COMPOEX (COnflict Modeling, Planning, and Outcomes EXperimentation)
BAE SystemsDr. Craig Lawrence
URL for more detail
Organization, tool and/or project logos
This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review.©2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the OpenVCE.net public web site and online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.
CampaignPlanning Tool
OptionExploration Tool
ConflictSpace Modeling
Tool
COMPOEX
1. Sources (ONA database, SIPRNet, Open Source
Center, MIDB, others) are searched to extract and
organize PMESII information…
2. … to help construct models of the power struggle,
economy, infrastructure and information environments
4. Commanders and Interagency planners explore the models to
understand the dynamics and develop Courses of Action (typically 5-10 lines of effort with over a hundred discrete actions) to achieve specified effects
(typically 50-100 effects).
3. Conceptual models are translated to a multi-
resolution (typically 3-4 levels for a country system) computational simulation
tailored from a Generic Model Library
Lines of Effort
DIME Actions
5. Results of simulations are presented as effects (typically 200-1000 effects in a 6-month
period) across the PMESII spectrum of over 1500 variables
– showing interactions among the systems and traceable causal
paths.
GenericPMESIIModel
Library
ONA SIPR NATO OSC
Plans Effects
Over 40 GenericModels of PMESII
Systems
A typical 3-level simulation has over 2500 dynamic casual relationships changing on one-week
time steps for a 6-12 month simulation period.
COMPOEX Tools and Workflow
1
2
4
5
Source, Waltz, Ed, “Situation Analysis and Collaborative Planning for Complex Operations” in Proc.13th International Command and Control Research Symposium, Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, June 17-19, 2008.
COMPOEX Tool: Campaign Planning Tool
BAE SystemsDr. Craig Lawrence
URL for more detail
This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review.©2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the OpenVCE.net public web site and online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.
Campaign Planning Tool
• Enables modular development of multiple lines of effort• Automatically detects and displays interdependencies, assumptions, resources, actions, duration of effects, metrics and next state• Ability to modify plans, actions, interdependencies, models and next states based on measured performance
Displays an operational campaign plan utilizing all elements of power
Source: Kott, Alexander and Corpac, Peter, Technology To Assist Leaders in Planning And Executing Campaigns In Complex Operational Environments Conflict Modeling, Planning and Outcomes Experimentation Program (COMPOEX), in Proc. of 12th International Command and Control Research Symposium, Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, 19 June 2007.
COMPOEX Tool: Option Exploration Simulation Tool
BAE SystemsDr. Craig Lawrence
URL for more detail
This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review.©2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the OpenVCE.net public web site and online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.
PMESII State Vector (Backplane)
Econ-omic
Models
Infra-structureModels
Visual-ization
Services
Infor-mationModels
Rule of Law,
SecurityModels
PlanService
CAMPAIGN PLANNING TOOL
OPTION EXPLORATION SIMULATION
Political-Social Power Structure Model
Implementing actions distributed to models
Implementing actions distributed to models
•Entry time-scheduled actions; identify action dependencies•Organize actions by Lines of Effort (LOE)•Specify the attributes of each specific action, the target of action and the initiator of the action
•
•Each output variable is compared to a reference baseline
Option Exploration Simulation Tool
•PMESII dynamics graphs in custom user-created views; automated detection of effects across all variables
Source, Waltz, Ed, “Situation Analysis and Collaborative Planning for Complex Operations” in Proc.13th International Command and Control Research Symposium, Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, June 17-19, 2008.
COMPOEX Tool: Model Library
BAE SystemsDr. Craig Lawrence
URL for more detail
This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review.©2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the OpenVCE.net public web site and online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.
Model LibraryPMESII Category Model Components Model Paradigm Modeled functions
Political
Regional influences National government Government institutions Local government Military organization Criminal Network Non-Gov’t Orgs
Generic agent-based models of interacting actors (individuals and institutions) that compete for power and sense the virtual world state
Each component is a network of actors with political, social, economic and military lines of influence.
Po-S
oc A
ctor
s Social
Population segment attitude Value functions or Bayesian
Aggregate attitudes based on local conditions and media influences
Economic National Macroeconomy Mesoeconomy
Systems dynamics Systems dynamics
National aggregate GDP Interacting economic sector elements
Infrastructure
Electrical Power Telecommunications Water service Sanitation service Health Care services Education services Manufacturing Agriculture Construction Food produce-distribute Transport Networks
Systems dynamics Systems dynamics Systems dynamics Systems dynamics Systems dynamics Systems dynamics Systems dynamics Systems dynamics System Dynamics System Dynamics Linear Programming
Infrastructure models represent performance and capacity, also may feed meso-economy models with production and consumption Nodal distribution networks
Information
Media sources Media channels
Time-discrete Time discrete
Media message production Message access, flow, impact
Virtu
al W
orld
Mod
els
Military Security by Rule of Law Military Deployment Military Engagement Insurgent Targeting
System Dynamics System Dynamics System Dynamics Bayesian net model
Police-Judicial-Prison Security-Civil impacts Basic Lanchester attrition Pol-Civil-Infrastructure. targeting
Model Library Catalog,
organized by the PMESII domains,
containing pre-built models at different levels of granularity for integration
within composed
models
Source, Waltz, Ed, “Situation Analysis and Collaborative Planning for Complex Operations” in Proc.13th International Command and Control Research Symposium, Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, June 17-19, 2008.
COMPOEX Modeling Tools
BAE SystemsDr. Craig Lawrence
URL for more detail
This information has been approved for Unlimited Distribution and has been previously published following DISTAR review.©2009, Materials are the copyright of the individual contributors and organizations they belong to. Use on the OpenVCE.net public web site and online facilities for open access is approved. Other permitted use of the materials is not implied.
Model-Building Tools
COMPOEX allows the composition of the major categories of simulation models) that represent:
• Non-physical human systems (political and social domains, and the structure of power and competitions for power)
• Physical systems (including economic systems of production-consumption, infrastructure, information flows, etc.).
• Typical model-building tools include those to the right
Source, Waltz, Ed, “Situation Analysis and Collaborative Planning for Complex Operations” in Proc.13th International Command and Control Research Symposium, Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense, June 17-19, 2008.
Sandbox: Conceptual Model-building
PSTK: Power Struggle agent model-building
Vensim™: System Dynamics Model-Building
Netica™ Bayes Net Model-building