Complex Societal IssuesDr. Dorien DeTombe (MSc. Ph.D.)

InternationalResearch Society on Methodology of Societal Complexity

P.O. Box. 3286, 1001 AB AmsterdamThe Netherlands, EuropeT: +31 20 6927526E: detombe@complexitycourse.orgW: www. complexitycourse.org

Global Safety

outline

global safetyaspects of complex societal problems in general

handling complex societal problems:

the methodology COMPRAM: dealing with complexity

global safety threatened bycausesnatural threats:global : virus (birds) flu HIV/AIDS

local : hurricanes flood avalanches earthquakes tsunami man made threats: global:terrorism climate change internet / stock exchangeCO2 local:war traffic congestion pollution agricultural industry (BSE)nucleair power plant

natural threats global : virus (birds) flu HIV/AIDS

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) human disease provoked by animals 2003natural threats: global

natural threats: global : virus HIV/AIDS

local natural disasters

hurricanes flood avalanches earthquakes tsunami

virus fowl plaque

natural threats: localchicken farms fowl plague virus

local natural disaster hurricaneKatrina New Orleans USA 2005

local natural disaster flood

floods in The Netherlands: below sea level and rivers

flood the Netherlands Europe 16th century

floodGermany, Europe, 1995

flood in The Netherlands Europe

avalanches in tourists areaslocal natural disaster avalanches

local natural disaster earthquake

local natural disaster earthquakeBAM Iran 2003

local natural disaster tsunami

local natural disaster tsunami

local natural disaster tsunami December 2004

man made threats global:

terrorism

climate change

CO2

internet

stock exchange

9/11/2001 attack world trade center New York USAman made threats: global: terrorism

man made threats: global: terrorismMadrid 03/11 2004

man made threats: global:stock exchange

CO2 Emission ReductionsKyoto Protocolman made threats: global

man made threats local: war

traffic congestion

pollution

agricultural industry (BSE)

nucleair power plants

warman made threats: local

societal disruptionman made threats: local

man made threats: local traffic congestion

man made threats: local pollution

man made threats: localfirework factory explosion in center of townTwente, The Netherlands, May 2000

foot and mouth disease

man made threats: local agricultural industry

man made threats: localnucleair power plants

these threats are complex societal problems

complex societal problem differs much from each other

however

can be analyzed, handled and evaluated in the same way

along the lines of the methodology of societal complexity

Definition of Complex Societal Problems DeTombe 2005 (1)

a complex societal problem is a real life problem, which has a large however often different impact on different groups in the society. The problem has often an impact on all the levels of the society, on micro, meso and macro level.

Often it seems that the problem suddenly pops-up. The problem is dynamic, it changes during its development. The future development of the problem is uncertain.

It is often difficult to become aware of the problem and difficult to put it on the political agenda. It is difficult to get grip on the problem and to handle the problem. Only changes are possible, no solutions.

Definition of Complex Societal Problems DeTombe 2005 (2)The problem has a knowledge, a power and an emotional component.The problem consist of many phenomena which are complicated intertwined with each other. Often there is a lack of knowledge, the data are incomplete, uncertain or in contradiction with each other. The problem is interdisciplinary and it takes theories from different fields to explain what is happening.

There are many parties involved. Each party has a different view on the problem, a different definition of the problem, and has different goal and desires. The parties often have different solutions for the problem. The different parties involved have different power over the problem.

The problem often provokes much emotion in society.

recognized by the OECD for

handling societal complexity JULY 2006

handling complex societal problems:

the methodology COMPRAM: dealing with complexitymulti disciplinesmany actorsanalyzing the situationmaking decisionsevaluation

phases of the problem handling process from awareness to evaluation interventions

defining the problem

awareness mental idea agenda team hypotheses conc.model__1.1__ __1.2__ __1.3__ _1.4___ _1.5__ __1.6__ changing the problem

emp. model handling space scenario intervention implementation evaluation_2.1___ _2.2___ _2.3___ __2.4__ __2.5__ __2.6__

defining the problem

awareness mental idea agenda team hypotheses conc.model__1.1__ __1.2__ __1.3__ _1.4___ _1.5__ __1.6__ ===================changing the problem

emp. model handling space scenario intervention implementation evaluation_2.1___ _2.2___ _2.3___ __2.4__ __2.5__ __2.6__========================================COMPRAM methodology:========and phases of the problem handling process

The first sub-cycle of the problem handling process: defining the problem

phase 1.1 aware forming a (vague) mental ideaphase 1.2hearing, thinking, reading, talking and asking questionsphase 1.3 agenda and deciding to handle the problemphase 1.4team and analyze the problemphase 1.5 gathering data, exchange knowledgeand forming hypothesesphase 1.6 formulating the conceptual model

The second sub-cycle: changing the problem

phase 2.1constructing the empirical model and the desired goalphase 2.2defining the handling spacephase 2.3constructing and evaluating scenariosphase 2.4suggesting interventionsphase 2.5implementing interventionsphase 2.6evaluating interventions

COMPRAM methodology: steps

step1 team of experts model the issue knowlegde

step 2 actors model the issue power

step 3 experts + actors find interventions

step 4 societal reactions emotion

step 5 interventions implemented

step 6 interventions evaluated

Complex problem handling methodology DeTombe

What threatens global safety categorized by here by causesAnd the effect they have on the society: local or globalwe will be focusing in this workshop mainly on complex societal problems caused by a natural causes and has a local effect not a compete overview , just some examples

Some example of complex societal problemAlthough it is called a natural disaster, the effects are cultural,All Men made disasters:We as human being share the world with the nature, also on vulnerable places like deltas floods, River Rhine, Saint Lawrence river, yansequian ?

on regions of two aarschollen? :earthquakes: japan.turkey, caleforniaVulcanos pompeii

Hurrican Katrina, september 2005 usa

Katrina hurricane, new orleans September 2005Floods: we straitened the rivers so much that the water runs down too fast, and we build houses in the Netherlands which is a delta anyway in the foreland . Forelands are suppose to be flooded.

Floods , here an example of the Netherlands, of which 30% of our land is below see level. That although we are handling the flood problem seriously because we are threatened by the rivers and the sea. These problem is handled over and over again.As you see 500 years later on this picturestill we have to handle the flood problemavalanches:if we did not have tourist areas in the mountains and cutting down the tree, there where either no avalanches or those who where there did no harm at all.

Earthquake BAM and Japan Kobe 1995 pictureTsunami : harbor wave happens also in Japan, is also a earthquake but now below see level.

36 images of mount fuji hokusai Tsunami of 2 December 2004 in ocean pacific which had an effect on Indonesia, and Thailand and India Sri Lanka and minor effect on Africa, Malawi?

Equity capital Hedge fundsRAF( rote armee fraktion - red army group) Germany 70tiesBask land Northern SpainThe netherlands 70ties the moluks ( people from ambon the netherlands)Private equity capital hedge fundsUSA already ratified? No, just like India and TurkeyAll these complex societal problem differs much from each otherYet they can be analyzed, handled and evaluated in the same way. How to handle these kind of problems belongs to the field of societal complexity.[1] The Final consensus report is published in May 2006. http://www.oecd.org/LongAbstract/0,2546,en_2649_34269_37163752_119666_1_1_1,00.htmlI like to talk with you this afternoon about the field of societal complexity, that focuses on handling complex societal problems . I like to discuss with you some aspects of complex societal problems and how to handle them. Handling complex societal problem can be done based on the ideas of the methodology COMPRAM, which I developed some years ago especially to analyze, handle guide and evaluate complex societal problems .Maak een cirkel met de fasenLots of the atentions goes to phase 2.3 scenarios and 2.4 intervention real life and universitiesFar less attention goes to the definition of the problem danger of handling the wrong problem or only a part of the problemCompram methodology handles all phases of the problem handling processNow we are already in phase 1.4 forming a team based on the idea which field are involved in the problem

Always policy makers: we are in the middel of the problem handlinG process never at the start

The whole process takes 6-12 months