competitiveness & sustainability in a globalized world vitor... · source: companhia nacional...
TRANSCRIPT
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C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
4/20/2015
V i t o r H u g o B r a n d a l i z e
C o b b - V a n t r e s s
Competitiveness & Sustainability in a Globalized World
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2 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Our Story: Then
"Our people are the heart of our company."
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Cobb Distribution
Pedigree
GGP
GP
Parents
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Cobb Business
Cobb
North America
Cobb
South America
Cobb
Europe Cobb
Asia
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Feeding the World
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Feeding a Growing World
http://www.farming4rfuture.ca/en/about-us/learn-more/
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Meat and Eggs Consumption (Per Capita)
7,000,000,000 people in 2010 43 Kg per capita
8,000,000,000 people in 2030
50 Kg per capita
Paul Aho, 2011
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Feeding a Growing World
It’s estimated, by 2050, the world will need 70% more food than produced today.
Estimated
FOOD REQUIRED
(2050)
FOOD REQUIRED
(2013)
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Global Protein Consumption
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11 Fonte: FAO elaboração: ICONE
Population Growth Map (2005-2050)
Threats and Opportunities
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In the last fourty years, Brazil has become from an
importing Country to the second largest exporter of
agricultural products in the world!
12
Brazil, the giant (Agribusiness) ! Exame Magazine, 01/10/2014
C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
The sector represent:
* 23% of gross domestic product
* 27% of jobs, and;
* 44% of Brazilian Exports
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13 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Products Production Export World trade
(Participation)
Orange Juice 1º 1º 83%
Chicken Meat 3º 1º 41%
Sugar 1º 1º 41%
Soya 2º 1º 39%
Beef Meat 2º 2º 29%
Coffee 1º 1º 23%
Pork Meat 4º 4º 11%
Ethanol 2º 1º n.d.
Brazil Agribusiness
Source: CONAB, 2012, ABIOVE, 2011 and USDA, 2012
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Why Brazil is one of the big player (Food Suppliers) in the world?
Because Brazil has, land and water available, perfect weather and people with ability to work in the field!
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• Brazilian agricultural activity
occupies 27.3% of the territory
• 61% or 520 million hectares of
the country are still covered by
native vegetation
Scenario
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16
Greece Ucraine Bosnia Croacia Macedonia Iceland Yugoslavia Norway Finland Switzerland Byelorussian
Austria Hungary Romania Holland Lituania Italy Poland Estonian
Czechoslovakia
France
Ireland
Belgium
Albania
Portugal
Spain Bulgaria
England
German
Letonia
Denmark
Sweden
Brazil's agricultural area (520 million ha) Total area of 32 European Countries
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17 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
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Water Available
12% of water available (World)
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Virtual consumption estimated of water for various products (L/kg producto)
Source: Hoekstra y Hung, 2003, Chapagain and Hoekstra, 2003, Zimmer and Renault,
2003 and Oki et al., 2003 Environmental Impact of Meat Production (wikipedia, 2012)
Products Average (Different authors)
Beef 16726
Pork 5469
Cheese 5288
Broiler 3809
Eggs 3519
Rice 2552
Soya 2517
Wheat 1437
Corn 1020
Milk 738
Potatoes 133
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Corn – Crop Calendar
BRAZIL JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
CORN 1st Crop Plantation
Harvest
CORN 2nd Crop Plantation
Harvest
ARGENTINA JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
CORN Plantation
Harvest
UNITED STATES JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
CORN Plantation
Harvest
Source: AMIS – Agricultural Market Information System (May 13)
Source: AMIS – Agricultural Market Information System (May 13)
Source: AMIS – Agricultural Market Information System (May 13)
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21
Corn 1st Crop
Source: Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento – CONAB (Jun 13)
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Corn 2nd Crop
Source: Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento – CONAB (Jun 13)
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23 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Corn
North
Northeast
Central West
Southeast
South
- Production (Thousand / Short Tons) - Production (% by region) - Yield (Bushels / ha)
Source: Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento – CONAB (Jun 13)
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24
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-02-10-2015.pdf
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Soybean– Production by region
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Soybean – Crop Calendar
BRAZIL JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
SOYBEAN Plantation
Harvest
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Plantation
Harvest
ARGENTINA
SOYBEAN
UNITED STATES JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
SOYBEAN Plantation
Harvest
Source: AMIS – Agricultural Market Information System (May 13)
Source: AMIS – Agricultural Market Information System (May 13)
Source: AMIS – Agricultural Market Information System (May 13)
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27
North
Northeast
Central West
Southeast
South
- Production (Thousand / Short Tons) - Production (% by region) - Yield (Bushels / ha)
Soybean
Source: Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento – CONAB (Jun 13)
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28 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c . http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/wasde/wasde-02-10-2015.pdf
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C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
The Global Kitchen
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30 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Foo
d S
urp
lus • United
States
• Brazil
• Argentina Fo
od
Def
icit
• Africa
• Middle East
• Europe
Pop
ula
tio
n C
ente
rs
• India
• China
Global Food Supply
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Resources
Developed Poultry Industry
U.S. & Brazil
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C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Poultry
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Beef 6.0 kg of feed 365 days (Feedlot)
Pork 3.0 kg of feed 180 days
Eggs 2.0 kg of feed
Broiler 1.8 Kg of feed 42 days (2,8 Kg Live)
Beef 0.0 Kg of grain Grass
33
We believe that poultry will be the fastest growing land-based protein. Why????
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34 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Poultry
Feed conversion rate
Genetic advances
Life cycle
Universally accepted
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Meat and Eggs in 2030 (Tons)
Meat 2011 2030
Beef 56 62
Pork 101 120
Chicken 74 120
Turkey 5 10
Eggs 68 88
Total 304 400 Paul Aho, 2011
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36 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Meat Production (Million / Tons)
Beef Pork Broiler Lamb Others Total Human Population
2010 66.2 102.2 96.9 14.4 5.6 285.4 6,908
2020 75.4 115.1 124.1 17.1 6.1 337.9 7,674
Increment
(%) 13.9 12.6 28.1 18.7 8.9 18.4 11.1
Adapted from OCDE-FAO, Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019
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Chicken Meat Production (World) (1990-2030)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Paul Aho, 2011
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38 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Chicken Production (1990 & 2010 - Million Tons)
1990 2010 Increment
Brazil 2.3 12.3 10.0
World 35 80 45
Paul Aho, 2011
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39 Source: USDA, ABEF
The largest poultry meat producers
23%
18%
15% 4% 3%
37%
EUA China Brasil México Índia Outros USA
USA
Brazil
China
56% of World Production
Protein Consumption (World)
Others
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Chicken Meat Production - Brazil (Million Tons.)
12,312
12,863
12,645
12,308
12,865
13,656
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Production 11033 11021 12312 12863 12645 12308 12691
Exportation 3646 3634 3820 3943 3917 3891 3995
% Exportation 33.0 33.0 31.0 30.7 31.0 31.6 31.4
Brazilian Poultry Production and Exportation (1000 ton)
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42 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Comments: * Projection
Production Volume
- In 2013, the volume of breeders placed decreased about 0.90% compared
to 2012, and the DOC production grew in Brazil in 2013 (2.50%).
- In 2014, the volume of breeders placed grew 6.90% compared to 2013, and
the DOC production grew in Brazil in 2014 (1.40%)
- In 2015, the volume of breeders placed must grow 3.45% compared to
2014, and we expect to grow the DOC production in Brazil in 2015 (2.00%)
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Breeder Placement (x 1,000)
49,75 46,50 46,1 49,3 51,0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
DOC Placement (x 1,000)
6,231,854 5,986,504 6,138,944 6,226,280 6,351,000
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43
Adapted from Apinco, Conab, Cobb and Secex (Estimation from MB Agro, 2012) and
Aveworld, 2012
Year Production Export Import Domestic
Consumption
Consumption
(Per capita)
2002 7429 1625 0.6 5804 32.9
2012 12645 3917 2.2 8728 43.8
2020 15740 5170 10570 51.4
Brazilian Broiler Production Production and Consumption
(1000 ton)
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44 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Export ( % of Total World Production)
5% 1990 10% 2010 14% 2030
Paul Aho, 2011
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45
History of Brazilian Poultry Industry
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46
Two years after the Two
Two years after discovery of Brazil (In 1502), Gonçalo Coello, brought the
first breeder to Brazil.
UBABEF, 2011 – The saga of the Brazilian Poultry Industry
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Decade Important events
1950 - Project ETA 42 – Brazil – USA – pure breed implementation
1960 - Integration production model implemented in the Southern region of Brazil - Long term Government investment
1970 - Development of poultry industry and increase of Brazilian poultry consumption
1980 - Start of poultry whole chicken export to Middle East and broiler cuts to Japan - Economical crisis reduced the increment of internal chicken consumption - Return first PhDs from outside and start of Graduate Programs in Animal Production
1990 - Increase technical production and animal performance – reduction of production cost - Export to Europe
2000 Main broiler exporter in the world
2010 - 2015 Consolidation – BrFoods (Sadia + Perdigao), JBS (Doux + Seara + others)
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48 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Production and Economic Aspects
4.5 million people involved in the broiler business
1.5% of Growth Domestic Product
3th larger broiler producer, close to China
7st larger egg producer
Largest broiler exporter
Exports to more than 150 countries
31% of the total country production is exported
33.2 million tons broiler/breeder feed and 5.1million tons layers (56.6% of total animal feed production)
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C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Brazilian Breeder and Broiler Production
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50
Farm place and protection - Breeders
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C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Broiler
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Farm place and protection
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C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Industry Consolidation
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Top DOC Producers
C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
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55 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Top DOC Producers
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56 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Breakdown of Brazilian Companies
Weekly Slaughter BRF
JBS
Cooperatives
Others
21%
28%
JBS Broilers / week:
26 million
BRF Broilers / week:
35 million
9%
42%
Coops Broilers / week:
11 million
Others Broilers / week:
53 million
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57 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Where the Brazilian Poultry Industry is Located?
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58 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Brazil: Pullet Cost
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
9.50
Jan/14Feb/14Mar/14Apr/14May/14Jun/14Jul/14Aug/14Sep/14Oct/14Nov/14Dec/14
Feed Ingred Cost (1.5 d)
Brasil=7.18 Prev=7.79 USA=8.71 Tp25%=8.21
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59 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Brazil: Pullet Developer
2545
2595
2645
2695
2745
2795
2845
2895
Jan/14Feb/14Mar/14Apr/14May/14Jun/14Jul/14Aug/14Sep/14Oct/14Nov/14Dec/14
Calories/Kg. Feed (1.11 a)
Brasil=2,775 Prev=2,744 USA=2,843 Tp25%=2,761
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Brazil: Combined Breeders Feed Nutrient Profile
2627
2677
2727
2777
2827
2877
2927
Jan/14Feb/14Mar/14Apr/14May/14Jun/14Jul/14Aug/14Sep/14Oct/14Nov/14Dec/14
Calories/Kg. Feed (1.19 a)
Brasil=2,832 Prev=2,845 USA=2,907 Tp25%=2,833
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61 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Brazil: Breeder
77.00
79.00
81.00
83.00
85.00
87.00
89.00
Jan/14Feb/14Mar/14Apr/14May/14Jun/14Jul/14Aug/14Sep/14Oct/14Nov/14Dec/14
% Adj Hatchability (1.16 d.1)
Brasil=82.88 Prev=83.91 USA=83.29 Tp25%=84.75
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62 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Brazil: Breeder
123.0
128.0
133.0
138.0
143.0
148.0
153.0
158.0
163.0
Jan/14Feb/14Mar/14Apr/14May/14Jun/14Jul/14Aug/14Sep/14Oct/14Nov/14Dec/14
Chicks/Hen per 65 Wks (1.29 a.1)
Brasil=151.8 Prev=143.0 USA=134.6 Tp25%=148.0
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Brazil: Growout
1.75
1.95
2.15
2.35
2.55
2.75
2.95
Jan/14Feb/14Mar/14Apr/14May/14Jun/14Jul/14Aug/14Sep/14Oct/14Nov/14Dec/14
Bird Weight (6.1 m)
Brasil=2.53 Prev=2.43 USA=2.85 Tp25%=2.75
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64 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Brazil: Growout
168.00
178.00
188.00
198.00
208.00
218.00
228.00
238.00
Jan/14 Feb/14 Mar/14 Apr/14 May/14 Jun/14 Jul/14 Aug/14 Sep/14 Oct/14 Nov/14 Dec/14
Live Production Cost (6.1 a.1)
Brasil=199.35 Prev=197.41 USA=227.16 Tp25%=209.91
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Brazil: Growout
5074
5274
5474
5674
5874
6074
6274
Jan/14 Feb/14 Mar/14 Apr/14 May/14 Jun/14 Jul/14 Aug/14 Sep/14 Oct/14 Nov/14 Dec/14
Actual Calorie Conversion (6.10 b.4)
Brasil=5,691 Prev=5,648 USA=5,992 Tp25%=6,008
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66 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Brazil: Growout
5074
5274
5474
5674
5874
6074
6274
Jan/14 Feb/14 Mar/14 Apr/14 May/14 Jun/14 Jul/14 Aug/14 Sep/14 Oct/14 Nov/14 Dec/14
Actual Calorie Conversion (6.10 b.4)
Brasil=5,691 Prev=5,648 USA=5,992 Tp25%=6,008
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67 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Brazil: Broiler Processing
84.0086.0088.0090.0092.0094.0096.0098.00
100.00102.00104.00
Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14 Apr 14May14
Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14
Brasil=95.68 95.24 96.36 97.37 98.77 97.87 94.79 98.28 99.87 98.26 97.60 96.22 95.68
Prev=95.13 94.89 92.63 90.61 93.94 91.90 94.65 98.13 94.82 96.25 96.23 95.13
USA=98.55 97.74 97.44 98.01 98.22 98.26 98.13 98.42 98.35 98.33 98.21 98.21 98.55
Tp25%=102.26 101.33 101.14 101.87 101.54 101.49 100.99 101.43 102.03 101.64 101.74 101.98 102.26
% Line Efficiency (2.4 a.1)
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Brazil: Broiler Processing
68.00
70.00
72.00
74.00
76.00
78.00
80.00
Jan/14 Feb/14 Mar/14 Apr/14 May/14 Jun/14 Jul/14 Aug/14 Sep/14 Oct/14 Nov/14 Dec/14
WOG Yield (3.1 e.2)
Brasil=75.02 Prev=72.89 USA=78.29 Tp25%=77.45
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69 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Challenges that Brazil will need to overcome
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Countries considered: • South Africa • Argentina • Austrália • Brazil • Canada • Chile • China • Colombia • South Korea • Spain • India • Mexico • Poland • Russia • Turkey
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Results
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73 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
Brazil is the 12th in the ranking of 14 countries in cost of labor due to low productivity, but it is the 4th in availability of manpower.
It lost three positions comparing to 2012 due to the lower growth of labor force.
AVAILABILITY AND COST OF LABOR
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
667 869 943 1.029 1.118 1.259 1.379 1.567
Brazil: Salaries and charges (Processing Plant) (Increased 18,5% per year)
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INFRASTRUCTURE AND LOGISTICS Brazil is ranked last in the subfactor Transport Infrastructure, and in the intermediary third in the subfactors Energy and Telecommunications Infrastructure and Customs and Operators. In comparison with 2012, Brazil lost a position and was overtaken by India, due to the worsening in the ranking of the subfactors Energy and Telecommunications Infrastructure and Customs and Operators.
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LOGISTICS (Challenges) • Highways in bad conditions
• Farms with difficult access during rain season
• Grain transportation mainly by trucks
• Long distances from farms to feed mills and
ports
• Lack of trucks to transport grains
• Corn as a new exportation product
• Infrastructure investments didn’t follow
production increment
• Increase in freight cost
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77 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
TAXES
Brazil is the 14th country in the ranking. Regarding the four subsectors, only in total Tax Revenues (as the percentage of PIB) Brazil is in the intermediary third. In comparison with 2012, Brazil remained in the penultimate position, ahead of Argentina.
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78 C o p y r i g h t C o b b - V a n t r e s s , I n c .
EDUCATION
Brazil was ranked 9th in 11 countries, which means that it is in the lower third.
In comparison with 2012, Brazil remained in the antepenultimate position, but due to the entry of Turkey, it went from the 8th to the 9th position.
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Thank you