competitive effects of means-tested school vouchers
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Competitive Effects of Means-Tested School Vouchers. David Figlio , Northwestern and NBER Cassandra Hart, Northwestern December 2009. Introduction. School choice options have become increasingly prevalent in recent years - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Competitive Effects of Means-Tested School Vouchers
David Figlio, Northwestern and NBERCassandra Hart, Northwestern
December 2009
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Introduction• School choice options have become increasingly
prevalent in recent years• Considerable attention paid to potential competitive
effects of choice, both positive (efficiency) and negative (cream-skimming)
• Challenging to gauge competitive effects because of interrelationship between private school supply and public school performance
• Prior literature: cross-sectional studies of private school penetration in US and international; Milwaukee vouchers; Florida school grades; Sweden voucher program introduction; Chile voucher cross-section
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This paper
• Study introduction of large new school voucher program; use introduction of this program as source of plausibly exogenous variation that increased demand for private school options after 2001
• Look at quantity and variety of nearby private school options in year prior to program announcement, which could generate variation in access to the program
• Florida is large and varied in its pre-program private school supply
• Identifying off of a policy change; use student data from 99-00 through 06-07
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How vouchers might affect public schools
• Competition effect• Composition effect• Resource effect
• First year of program was before any students left the public schools – but were applying
• Work in progress: still trying to tease out three effects in the “mobility” years of the program
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Florida’s Corporate Tax Credit Scholarship Program
• Funded by fully tax creditable corporate contributions to one of three Scholarship Funding Organizations, each with geographic range; total contributions capped by Legislature
• Began with 20,000+ students, now at 27,000+ students• Students below 185% of poverty line and attending
public school in prior year (or entering grades K/1) eligible; renewal requires income below 200% of poverty line
• Initial voucher was $3,500; now, it’s $3,950-$4,100 (around 90% of average “rack rate” religious school tuition/fees in Florida)
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Private school landscape in Florida
• 2000 Census 5% microdata sample: 11.4% of Florida students 6-17 attended private schools; 5.4% of income-eligible students attended private schools
• Large regional variation in private school penetration at MSA level
• Considerable within-MSA variation as well (wait a few slides)
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Regional variation in private school penetration in 2000 Census
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Data
• (Standardized) student test scores, basic demographics from 1999-2000 through 2006-07 from Florida Education Data Warehouse– Developmental scale scores employed, grades 3-10– Exclude students with disabilities (eligible for other
voucher program, McKay Scholarships)
• 9.8M student-year observations; 2.8M students• Private school universe from Florida Dept of Education– Public and private addresses geocoded using ARCGis– Private competitors measured by grade span served
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Empirical approach
• School and time fixed effect models (clustered SE)• Dependent variable: standardized student DSS test
scores, controlling for prior-year test scores when available
• Controls for student characteristics and grade• Policy variable: private school competition (measured
in 2000) x post-policy• “Post-policy” occurs once program is announced• Other models look year-by-year after policy is
announced
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Competition measures
• Physical distance in miles to nearest private school competitor (measured negative)
• Number of private competitors within 5 miles• Number of types of private competitors within 5 miles
– Types (self-identified by schools): non-religious; non-denominational; Catholic; Protestant; Evangelical; Baptist; Islamic; Jewish; “Christian”; other religious
• Herfindahl index of competitor types (1-Herfindahl)• Robust to other radii of competition• Study sample: schools with competitor within 5 miles
(basically the whole state)
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Competition measures #1
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Competition measures #2
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Competition measures #3
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Competition measures #4
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Within-MSA variation
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Within-MSA variation
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Within-MSA variation
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First-year estimates of voucher effects
Competition measure Math estimated effect Reading estimated effect
Distance 0.017***(0.002)
0.015***(0.002)
Density 0.003***(0.000)
0.003***(0.000)
Diversity 0.011***(0.001)
0.011***(0.001)
Concentration 0.069***(0.008)
0.070***(0.007)
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Adding leads of policy variableCompetition measure
Math: first year
Math: lead Reading: first year
Reading: lead
Distance 0.012***(0.003)
-0.006+(0.003)
0.012***(0.002)
-0.004+(0.002)
Density 0.002***(0.000)
-0.001***(0.000)
0.002***(0.000)
-0.000(0.000)
Diversity 0.006***(0.002)
-0.007***(0.002)
0.009***(0.001)
-0.003**(0.001)
Concentration 0.045**(0.015)
-0.033*(0.015)
0.045***(0.012)
-0.034**(0.012)
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Differences by program eligibilityCompetition measure
Math: ineligibles
Math: difference for eligibles
Reading: ineligibles
Reading: difference for eligibles
Distance 0.014***(0.002)
0.008**(0.003)
0.012***(0.002)
0.010***(0.003)
Density 0.003***(0.000)
-0.001*(0.000)
0.003***(0.000)
-0.001**(0.000)
Diversity 0.012***(0.001)
-0.002*(0.001)
0.013***(0.001)
-0.003**(0.001)
Concentration 0.060***(0.009)
0.022*(0.011)
0.060***(0.008)
0.030**(0.010)
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Effects same for poor vs very poorCompetition measure
Math: reduced price lunch
Math: difference for free lunch
Reading: reduced price lunch
Reading: difference for free lunch
Distance 0.023***(0.003)
-0.002(0.003)
0.019***(0.003)
0.001(0.003)
Density 0.003***(0.000)
0.000(0.000)
0.003***(0.000)
-0.000(0.000)
Diversity 0.010***(0.001)
0.001(0.001)
0.012***(0.001)
0.000(0.001)
Concentration 0.088***(0.009)
-0.012(0.010)
0.083***(0.008)
-0.004(0.011)
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Differences by context (reading; distance measure of competition)
Contextual measure
Average class size in school
2000 school grade District has open enrollment
Competition x post-policy
0.032***(0.001)
0.016***(0.003)
0.008***(0.002)
Interaction with class size
-0.001(0.000)
Interaction with "B" grade
0.005(0.006)
Interaction with "C" grade
-0.003(0.004)
Interaction with "D" grade
0.017(0.011)
Interaction with "F" grade
0.222**(0.072)
Interaction with open enrollment
0.014***(0.004)
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Over-time changes in policy effectsComp.measure (pre-policy)
Lead of program(2000-01)
First year(2001-02)
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Distance -0.008+(0.005)
0.010*(0.004)
0.008+(0.004)
0.014***(0.004)
0.023***(0.004)
0.028***(0.004)
0.023***(0.004)
Density -0.002***(0.000)
0.002***(0.000)
0.001***(0.000)
0.002***(0.000)
0.004***(0.000)
0.004***(0.000)
0.004***(0.000)
Diversity -0.008***(0.002)
0.004*(0.002)
0.003(0.002)
0.008***(0.002)
0.013***(0.002)
0.018***(0.002)
0.016***(0.002)
Concen-tration
-0.040+(0.021)
0.036+(0.019)
0.026(0.018)
0.063***(0.018)
0.104***(0.019)
0.131***(0.019)
0.116***(0.019)
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Bigger differences in “mobility” years
• Competition effect?• Resource effect?• Composition effect?
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Evidence of negative selection
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Evidence of negative selection
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Where do students fall in their prior school’s distribution?
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Where do students fall in their prior school’s distribution?
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Distributions by race/ethnicity
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Distributions by race/ethnicity
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Summing up
• Preliminary conclusions• Limitations/generalizability