comparison of pps and qpe rainfall estimates for summer 2013 heavy precipitation events
DESCRIPTION
Comparison of PPS and QPE Rainfall Estimates for Summer 2013 Heavy Precipitation Events. Mitchell Gaines National Weather Service Mount Holly, NJ. Purpose . - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Comparison of PPS and QPE Rainfall Estimates for Summer 2013
Heavy Precipitation Events
Mitchell Gaines National Weather Service
Mount Holly, NJ
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
Purpose
To evaluate the PPS and QPE Algorithms and processes of rainfall estimation with relation to ground truth precipitation measurements for several heavy rainfall events from this past Summer over the Philadelphia region.
Photo: Pennsville, NJ Jul 28,2013Source: NJ.com
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
Rainfall Records Broken
- Wettest June and July on record at Philadelphia International Airport.
- 8.03 inches in about six hours (daily rainfall record) at Philadelphia on July 28th
- Wettest June on record in Wilmington, DE, and Atlantic City, NJ
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
Legacy PPS vs. Dual-Pol QPE
PPS- From base reflectivity (Z) Digital Hybrid Scan- Single Z-R relation used at any time (choice of coefficients)- Gage bias adjustment available- Suffers from bright band, hail contamination, beam blockageQPE- From Z, ZDR, CC, KDP, MLDA, HCA Digital Precip Rate- Three relations: R(Z), R(Z,ZDR), R(KDP) plus adjustments for
frozen hydro-meteors- No gage bias adjustment- Dual-pol input should mitigate many PPS limitations
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
WFO Mount Holly, NJ County Warning Area
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
KDIX
KDOX
KDIX/KDOX Coverage to 150 km
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
Methodology
Identify heavy rainfall events over the Philadelphia region this summer which led to flash flooding. (6/3/13, 6/7/13, 6/10/13, 6/18/13, 7/1/13, 7/13/13, 7/23/13, 7/28/13)
Use Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor System (MMRS) http://nmq.ou.edu/legacy2012.html- Compare rain gauge data to radar estimates from both the PPS
and QPE for that particular point. - Exclude data less than 20km or more than 150 km from the
radar.- Excluded zero or trace values, gauge or radar.
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
Methodology (Cont’d)
Use of DIX and DOX WSR 88D radars to apply estimation methods.
Variables measured to determine preference- RMSE, Correlation Coefficient, Mean Bias - Graphical scatter plots
- Focus on July 28th event ( 03z to 03z timeframe with scatterplots)
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
July 28th Heavy Rainfall
- Localized heavy rainfall event
- 8.03 inches of rain in about six hours at Philadelphia International, less than one inch at Northeast Philadelphia. Dual-pol (QPE) rainfall estimate image
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
Synoptic Overview, July 28
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
PPS DIX Radar 7/28
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
QPE DIX Radar 7/28
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
PPS DOX 7/28
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
QPE DOX 7/28
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
Overall Results
6/7 (Andrea) DIX Mean Bias G/R Correlation Coeff RMSE (in)
QPE 1.31 .57 .89
PPS 1.61 .57 1.10
6/10 DIX Mean Bias G/R Correlation Coeff RMSE (in)
QPE 1.00 .77 .48
PPS 1.45 .76 .58
6/18 DIX Mean Bias G/R Correlation Coeff RMSE (in)
QPE .74 .91 .35
PPS .98 .86 .34
6/3 DIX Mean Bias G/R Correlation Coeff RMSE (in)
QPE .91 .80 .2
PPS 1.06 .78 .21
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
Overall Results
7/23-24 DIX Mean Bias G/R Correlation Coeff RMSE (in)
QPE .73 .80 .52
PPS 1.13 .79 .35
7/28-29 DIX Mean Bias G/R Correlation Coeff RMSE (in)
QPE .98 .94 .35
PPS 1.37 .93 .66
7/12 Mean Bias G/R Correlation Coeff RMSE (in)
QPE .89 .88 .34
PPS 1.17 .87 .34
7/1 (12Z) Mean Bias G/R Correlation Coeff RMSE (in)
QPE .82 .87 .36
PPS 1.27 .87 .32
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
Average Results
AVG DIX Mean Bias G/R Correlation Coeff RMSE(in)
QPE .93 .81 .44
PPS 1.26 .80 .49
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
Conclusions
- Lower mean bias with QPE
- Similar CC values
- Lower RMSE values with QPE, all but 7/23.
- DOX results featured higher Dual-Pol totals while Legacy was a better fit in several cases.
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
Conclusions
QPE is preferred for rainfall amounts over 2 inches in heavy rainfall events. - Much better at “capturing” higher amounts
of QPF. - Seen in “curve” throughout many of the
scatterplots - Use of melting layer more of a role in cold
season - Zimmerman Presentation (NWS, Wakefield)
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WFO Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ
Special thanks to the
-NROW Conference Steering Committee
-The University of Albany
- National Weather Service Mount Holly, NJ
- SOO Al Cope
Questions