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Communities and the Commission “Redrawing the Maps: Redistricting, Race, and Representation in the Next Decade” Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos January 28, 2012

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Page 1: Communities and the Commission “Redrawing the Maps: Redistricting, Race, and Representation in the Next Decade” Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos January 28,

Communities and the Commission

“Redrawing the Maps: Redistricting, Race, and Representation in the Next Decade”

Nicholas O. StephanopoulosJanuary 28, 2012

Page 2: Communities and the Commission “Redrawing the Maps: Redistricting, Race, and Representation in the Next Decade” Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos January 28,

California’s Community-of-Interest Criterion

Applies only to geographic communitieso “The geographic integrity of any . . . community of interest shall

be respected . . . .”o “A community of interest is a contiguous population . . . .”

Defines communities in objective termso “A community of interest is a . . . population which shares

common social and economic interests . . . .”o “Examples of such shared interests are those common to an

urban area, a rural area, an industrial area, or an agricultural area, and those common to areas in which the people share similar living standards, use the same transportation facilities, [or] have similar work opportunities . . . .”

Excludes political considerationso “Communities of interest shall not include relationships with

political parties, incumbents, or political candidates.”

Page 3: Communities and the Commission “Redrawing the Maps: Redistricting, Race, and Representation in the Next Decade” Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos January 28,

Spatial Diversity Diagrams

High Spatial Diversity; Low Community Congruence

Medium Spatial Diversity; Medium Community Congruence

Low Spatial Diversity; High Community Congruence

Page 4: Communities and the Commission “Redrawing the Maps: Redistricting, Race, and Representation in the Next Decade” Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos January 28,

Drivers of California Residential Patterns

SES S

tatus /

Hispan

ic

Urban

/ Suburb

an

Asian-A

merican

Exurb

an Sp

rawl

African

-Ameri

can Age0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Fiscal Views Social / Cultural Views

Gaming Views0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

American Community Survey Analysis Popular Initiative Analysis

Page 5: Communities and the Commission “Redrawing the Maps: Redistricting, Race, and Representation in the Next Decade” Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos January 28,

California Plans’ Spatial Diversity Averages

American Community Survey Analysis Popular Initiative Analysis

Assembly Senate Congress0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

OldNew

Assembly Senate Congress0.54

0.56

0.58

0.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

OldNew

Page 6: Communities and the Commission “Redrawing the Maps: Redistricting, Race, and Representation in the Next Decade” Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos January 28,

California Plans’ Spatial Diversity Outliers

American Community Survey Analysis Popular Initiative Analysis

Assembly Senate Congress0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

OldNew

Assembly Senate Congress0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

OldNew

Page 7: Communities and the Commission “Redrawing the Maps: Redistricting, Race, and Representation in the Next Decade” Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos January 28,

California Versus Its Peers (Congress; ACS Data)

New York

Virginia

Vermont (A-L)

Wisconsin

Maine

Illinois

Wyoming (A-L)

Nebraska

MinnesotaArkansas

West Virginia

Pennsylvania

Kansas

New HampshireKentucky

North Dakota (A-L)Montana (A-L)

South Dakota (A-L)

Tennessee

Washington

Mississippi

Maryland

Delaware (A-L)

Michigan

Missouri

Georgia

Indiana

North CarolinaIdaho

Oklahoma

Arizona

California (Old)

Alaska (A-L)

Oregon

South Carolina

Colorado

New Jersey

Ohio

Iowa

AlabamaUtah

Massachusetts

Florida

Louisiana

New MexicoConnecticut

Rhode IslandNevada

Texas

Hawaii

.5.6

.7.8

.9A

ctua

l Spa

tial D

iver

sity

Ave

rage

.5 .6 .7 .8 .9Predicted Spatial Diversity Average

Page 8: Communities and the Commission “Redrawing the Maps: Redistricting, Race, and Representation in the Next Decade” Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos January 28,

Improvement Example 1 (Congress; Socio-Economic Status)

Page 9: Communities and the Commission “Redrawing the Maps: Redistricting, Race, and Representation in the Next Decade” Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos January 28,

Improvement Example 2 (House; Asian-American Population)

Page 10: Communities and the Commission “Redrawing the Maps: Redistricting, Race, and Representation in the Next Decade” Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos January 28,

No Improvement Example 1 (Senate; Socio-Economic Status)

Page 11: Communities and the Commission “Redrawing the Maps: Redistricting, Race, and Representation in the Next Decade” Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos January 28,

No Improvement Example 2 (Congress; African-American Population)