Communicating Changes in the Arctic Communicating Changes in the Arctic Environment Environment

Nancy N. SoreideNOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA

J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, Helen Wiggins and and J. Calder

IPY Oslo Science Conference 2010, June 8-12, 2010

Communicating Changes in Arctic Environment

• The international Arctic Sea Ice Outlook – A community-wide summary of the expected September Arctic sea

ice minimum.

• The Arctic Report Card – A concise, scientifically credible and accessible source of

information on recent changes in the Arctic.

• Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global Impacts– Summarizes important recent Arctic science results for a broader

broader audience, beyond the science literature.

Sea Ice OutlookA community-wide summary of expected September Arctic sea ice minimum.

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/

• Reports issued monthly throughout summer.

• Synthesize community-wide estimates

• Scientific rationale of the range of estimates of expected minimum of sea ice

• Not formal predictions for Arctic sea ice extent

1996

1979-2000

2009

• All Outlook projected values for September 2009 were less than the observed value

• But most were within the range of uncertainty

Sea Ice Outlook 2008Showed predictability of Sept sea ice based on Spring data

Predict. minima:mean=4.43σ=0.21

'June'outlook

Ice extent - start from 27. June 2008

September

'July'outlook

Ice extent - start from 7. August 2008Predict. minima:mean=4.43σ=0.15

Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO)A New Sea Ice Outlook Product

• Reports issued weekly on sea ice conditions

• Designed for Alaska Native subsistence hunters, coastal communities, and others interested in sea ice and walrus

Arctic Report Card Tracks recent environmental changes

Updated annually, Peer-reviewed

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/

AtmosphereHigher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere contributing to changes

in the atmospheric circulation in the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes

AtmosphereLarge scale wind patterns impacted by loss of summer sea ice

Sea Ice September extent in 2009 was the third lowest in satellite record (1979)

and >25% below 1979-2000 average

Sea IceMulti-year sea ice is being replaced by first year sea ice

GreenlandDespite an abnormally cold winter, record-setting summer temperatures

lead to continued ice sheet loss

Cumulative annual area changes for 34 of the widest Greenland ice sheet marine-terminating outlets.

GreenlandIce sheet loss continues

Biology, Ocean and LandShow many indications of warming

LandIncreased runoff in Siberia, less snow in N. America

OceanWarming and freshening of upper ocean linked to new ice-free areas

BiologyHigh Arctic species impacted by loss of sea ice

References

1 Wang, M., and J.E. Overland (2009): A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07502, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037820.

2 Overland, J.E., and M. Wang (2010): Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1–9.

3Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane (2009): Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

4Strey, S.T., W. Chapman, and J. Walsh (2009): Effects Of An Extreme Arctic Sea Ice Minimum On the Northern Hemisphere Atmosphere During Late Autumn and Early Winter:, Eos Trans. Eos Trans. AGU, 90(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C41A-0421.

5 Schweiger, A.J., Lindsay, R.W., Vavrus, S., and J.A. Francis (2008): Relationships between Arctic sea ice and clouds during autumn. J. Climate, 21, 4799–4810.

6 Serreze, M.C., Barrett, A.P., Stroeve, J.C., Kindig, D.N., and M.M. Holland (2009): The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification. The Cryosphere, 3, 11–19.

7 Holland, M.M., C.M. Bitz, and B. Tremblay (2006): Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23503,doi:10.1029/2006GL028024.

8 Budikova, D. (2009): Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: A review. Global Planet. Change, 68(3), 149–163.

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/

Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global ImpactsSummarizes important recent Arctic science results

for a broader, more general audience

Heat

Impacts

Scientifically credible, annually-updated website designed for managers, scientists and citizens Peer-reviewed by topical experts of the Climate Experts Group (AMAP) of the Arctic Council.

Arctic Report CardArctic Report Card22

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/

A community-wide summary of the expected September Arctic sea ice minimum. Reports are released monthly throughout the summer. Mew in 2010: Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO).

International Arctic Sea Ice OutlookInternational Arctic Sea Ice Outlook11 http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/

Summarizes important recent Arctic science results for a broader broader audience

The Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global ImpactsThe Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global Impacts22

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/

1 Supported in part through the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)2 2 Supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office through the Arctic Research Program