colombia en una encrucijada latam energy convention 2015 campetrol 27 mayo 2015 trusted commercial...
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Colombia en una encrucijadaLATAM Energy Convention 2015
Campetrol
27 Mayo 2015
Trusted commercial intelligence
www.woodmac.com
Ana-Maria Lafuente
Trusted commercial intelligence
www.woodmac.com
2
Agenda
1. Pronostico de reservas y producción
2. Perfil corporativo
3. Comparaciones fiscales
4. Riesgo por país
Trusted commercial intelligence
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3
Sin nuevos descubrimientos, producción de líquidos declina
Producción de líquidos de activos actualmente comerciales
Source: Wood Mackenzie
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
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06
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07
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08
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14
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15
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22
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23
20
24
20
25
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pro
du
cc
ión
de
líq
uid
os
('0
00
b/d
)
Trusted commercial intelligence
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4
Éxito en exploración es imperativo para remplazar reservas
Volúmenes anuales descubiertos vs. producción cumulativa anual
Source: Wood Mackenzie
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Discovered reserves (mmboe) Annual Production (mmboe)
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5
Panorama corporativo es fragmentado, dominado por dos compañías clave
Reservas comerciales remanentes por compañía
Source: Wood Mackenzie
55%
14%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2% 3%1%1%
1%1%
1%10% Ecopetrol
Pacific Rubiales
Repsol
Chevron
Occidental
SINOCHEM
Gran Tierra
Equion
Hocol
Amerisur
CEPSA
Perenco
Mansarovar
Others*As of January 2015
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6
Reducciones de capex por compañías en Colombia mas que el promedio global
2015 vs 2014 cambios globalmente en capex (%) E&D upstream
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Major NOC Large-Cap Mid/Small-Cap Colombia-focused-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
y-o-y change in upstream E&D capex (%)
Trusted commercial intelligence
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7
Términos fiscales onshore Colombia comparados a sus pares
Medidas financieras ilustrativas de un campo estándar en tierra de 20 mmbbl
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Peru Brazil Conc Argentina Colombia Venezuela Ecuador0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
1200%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
IRR (post tax) Gov't take %
IRR
(P
os
t T
ax
)
Go
v't
Ta
ke
Trusted commercial intelligence
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8
Comparación de términos fiscales con posibilidades de México
Medidas financieras ilustrativas de un campo estándar en tierra de 5 mmbbl
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9
Actores grandes en Colombia tienen recursos sin comercializar
Compañías con mayores áreas en Colombia (por interés)
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Ec
op
etr
ol
An
ad
ark
o
Pa
cif
ic R
ub
iale
s
Re
ps
ol
Sh
ell
BH
P B
illit
on
Ex
xo
nM
ob
il
CE
PS
A
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Ne
t A
cre
ag
e (
km
²)
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10
Alto interés, altas expectativas offshore
LakeMaracaibo
VENEZUELA
PANAMA
COLOMBIA
PacificOcean
CaribbeanSea
BOGOTA
And
es
SinuBasin
COLOMBIAVENEZUELA
Wes
tern
Cor
dille
ra
GuajiraBasin
Aruba Basin
BorbonBasin
72°0'W
72°0'W
74°0'W
74°0'W
76°0'W
76°0'W
78°0'W
78°0'W
80°0'W
80°0'W
14°0
'N
14°0
'N
12°0
'N
12°0
'N
10°0
'N
10°0
'N
8°0'
N
8°0'
N
6°0'
N
6°0'
N
4°0'
N
4°0'
N
0 100 20050km
Source: Wood Mackenzie
BRAZIL
COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA
ECUADOR
PERU
Pacific Ocean
Caribbean Sea
Offshore Block Participation
Anadarko* (100%)
Anadarko* (50%), Ecopetrol (50%)
Ecopetrol* (100%)
Equion Energia* (40.6%), Ecopetrol (32%), Petrobras (27.4%)
ONGC* (100%)
ONGC* (50%), Ecopetrol (50%)
Petrobras* (40%), Ecopetrol (30%), Repsol (20%), Statoil (10%)
Repsol* (30%), Ecopetrol (50%), Statoil (20%)
Repsol* (33.34%), ExxonMobil (33.33%), Statoil (33.33%)
Shell* (100%)
Shell* (50%), Ecopetrol (50%)
Shell* (70%), BG (30%)
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11
Terminos fiscals deepwater Colombia deepwater son competitivos con sus pares
Medidas financieras ilustrativas de un campo estándar deepwater de 200 mmbbl
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Trinidad Peru Mozambique Colombia US GoM Brazil Conc Brazil PSC Venezuela0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
IRR (post tax) Gov't take %
IRR
(p
os
t ta
x)
Go
v't
Ta
ke
Trusted commercial intelligence
www.woodmac.com
12
Asset Risk Index (ARI) – Colombia adelante de todos
2015 2020
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Esperamos mejoramiento en toda la región a través del periodo evaluado
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13
Contacts
Ana-Maria Lafuente (Houston)T +1 713 470 1839E [email protected]
Wood Mackenzie Analyst – Latin America
Americas +1 713 470 1700
Asia Pacific + 65 6518 0888
Europe +44 131 243 4477
Wood Mackenzie Client Helpdesk
Trusted commercial intelligence
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14
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared for Campetrol by Wood Mackenzie Limited. The report is intended solely for the benefit of Campetrol and its contents and conclusions are confidential and may not be disclosed to any other persons or companies without Wood Mackenzie’s prior written permission.
The information upon which this report is based comes from our own experience, knowledge and databases. The opinions expressed in this report are those of Wood Mackenzie. They have been arrived at following careful consideration and enquiry but we do not guarantee their fairness, completeness or accuracy. The opinions, as of this date, are subject to change. We do not accept any liability for your reliance upon them.
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