New developments in transition studies

beyond visions and innovation

Derk LoorbachDelft, 23-05-2011

Derk LoorbachDelft, 23-05-2011

Transitions

Transition Governance

Transitionizing consumption

Social-ecological systems

New agenda

• Complex, long-term and uncertain– no quick fixes or only technological solutions

• Embedded in societal structures– optimization through existing solutions insufficient

• Many different actors involved– contested and ‘ill-structured’

• Difficult to ‘manage’– Examples: energy, mobility, agriculture, education, health care, water

management, housing etc.

Unsustainability lock-in requires transitions

Persistent problems of sustainability

Transitions

fundamental change of structure, culture and fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in a societal (sub)systempractices in a societal (sub)system

– culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, collective set of values, norms, perspectives (shared perspectives (shared orientation), paradigms orientation), paradigms

– structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure, infrastructure, institutions, rules, regulations, collective institutions, rules, regulations, collective routinesroutines

– practices:practices: behaviour, operation, implementationbehaviour, operation, implementation

Shared discourse and language for multi-actor Shared discourse and language for multi-actor learning and innovation processeslearning and innovation processes

Consumption: a persistent problem?

• Unsustainable consumption practices are problematic

• Consumption creates demand, demand structures consumption

• Consumption practices occur at different levels (individuals, groups, societies)

• ‘unsustainable consumption’ is ill-structured: what is the problem?

transition in consumption systems?

Transition levelsMacro-level: landscapeautonomous trends, paradigms, slow changes

Meso-level: regimeDominant structure, culture and practices

Micro-level: niches innovative ideas, projects, technologies, niche actorsBased on Geels and Kemp, 2001

Multiple Phases

Predevelopment

Stabilization

time

Societal development

Acceleration

Take-off

From: Rotmans et al, 2000

Transition phases

Sustainable society?

health care

energywaste

waterconstruction

mobility finance

predevelopment

take-off

acceleration

stabilisation

Based on Rotmans et al, 2001

Where is consumption?

• Transition research so far predominantly focuses on supply side and sectors

• Actors (let alone consumers) are often not explicitly addressed

• However, transitions presuppose major shifts in (consumer) practices

are we seeing a pattern shift towards acceleration in consumer behavior?

Transition governance principles (predev.)

• long-term long-term thinking as the basis for short term policythinking as the basis for short term policy

• thinking in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), thinking in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-different levels (multi-level)level)

• learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)

• orient governance towards system innovation orient governance towards system innovation besides system improvementbesides system improvement

• keeping options open, exploring multiple pathwayskeeping options open, exploring multiple pathways

• selective participation focusing on frontrunnersselective participation focusing on frontrunners

Governance framework

Strategic(culture, worldviews, norms and values)

Tactical(institutions, networks, structures)

Operational(practices, innovations,niches)

Influencing learning

and reflection(transition

monitoring)

Influencing changes in structures(transition-

network and –agenda)

Influencing changes in culture and discourse

(transitionarena)

Influencing innovation dynamics

(transitionexperiments)

society

Transition arenaRegular policy arena

- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented

- Long term- Frontrunners - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching

Transition arenas

Dutch Energytransition

• Initiated by Ministry of Economic Affairs– Grown from 5 to over 1000 involved actors between 2001

and 2010

• Long-term vision: a clean, affordable and safe energy-suppply

• 7 transition platforms– Built environment, mobility, green electricity, green

resources, new gas, chain efficiency and greenhouse as energy source

• Innovation agenda with budget of over 400 MEuro– Multiple pathways (25+) and hundereds of experiments

Structure

Impact?

• Agenda adopted by regime board– Transition platform established by ministries

• Experiments started– And concrete regulations influenced

• Narrative/discourse spreading– Accelerated by financial crisis

• Energy transition cancelled at Ministry level– But taken over at regional/business/community

level

Recent experiences

• Transition governance increasingly applied regionally/in urban context

• Citizens/consumers more explicitly part of the problem/challenge

• So far however no attempts to create large scale behavioral change with transition approach

focus primarily on envisioning, agenda-building and experimenting

Urban Transition ManagementRotterdam

• Increasing speed, coherence, ambition and engagement of urban innovation processes

• ‘Transitionizing’ Existing Policies– Use of the concept of transitions to conceptualize,

analyze and identify on-going changes towards sustainability in different domains

– Stimulation of envisioning and goal formulation on the long-term

– (re)structuring transition scenario’s and pathways– Up-scaling and initiating projects and experiments– Reflection and evaluation of progress of transitions

and (required) changes in governance

CityPorts area

• CityPorts area redevelopment as transition challenge– Long-term and highly complex and uncertain– Very high sustainability ambition– Need for institutional and behavioral change– Experimental (policy) approach– Public-private challenge

Trying to guide and accelerate organic systemic changes

5 strategies1. Re-inventing delta technology

2. Volume & Value

3. Crossing borders

4. Floating gentrification

5. Sustainable mobility

Long term: perspective 2040

Mid term: course 2025

Short term: action 2015

CityPorts

One of the images: Floating City

(Design: www.deltasync.nl)

…the transition experiment

Societal resilience and transition

• Context: Pact op Zuid– 1 billion Euro investment in battling social problems – Reframing program as transition program

• Transition arena experiment in deprived neighbourhood (wijkarena)– Local citizens, entrepreneurs, organisations

• Close cooperation policy-science in transition team– ‘transitionizing’ policy through coproduction

• Now up-scaling in ‘Veerkracht’ (Resilience)

Dutch Research Institute For Transitions

Core transitional challenge

• Community empowerment– Developing self-organisational capacity– Paradigm shift towards self-awareness– Articulating community needs

• Policy transition– Participation in societal process– Toward integrative cooperation– Developing process governance capacity

Tijd

Pact op Zuid

City harbors Program-

directors

Self-organisation: Supply driven, Integral,

Process oriented Innovative,/sustainable

Co-production

Fragmented Competition Individualism Distrust Short-term

GGW

Gideon

Policy new stylenwe stijl

City marines

SONS Bureau frontline

Field-academy

Activation Human centered concrete solutions

Empowering Experimenting Learning

Mono-actorGroup

portrets

Participation visions

Norm op Zuid

Roffa 5314

Artroute

Social and policy transition

Rotterdam sustainability transition

• Connected PortCity: flows of people, energy, resources, finances, knowledge reconnect city and port in a symbiotic way– Port transition: green chemistry, bio and

renewable energyport, cradle-to-cradle industry, waterconstruction

– City transition: toward a biotic, self-sustaining and socially resilient and diverse city

– Cityports area as the ‘heart’

InContext (FP7)

• Application of transition approach in local communities focusing on sustainable behavior

• Collective ‘framing’ of outer context and socio-technical structures that condition behavior

• Specific and explicit attention to individual ‘inner contexts’ (e.g. perspectives, values) and the differences

Is it possible to ‘transitionize’ behavior/consumption?

Behavioral/consumption transition?

• Dominant behavioral patterns, structures and culture in a neighborhood (inner and outer)?

• Identifying persistent problems locally, regionally and internationally

• Historical origins, external pressures/changes and alternative practices/niches?

• Shift towards sustainable behavioral patterns, culture and structures (individual and collective)

• Insight into how individuals matter

... is a co-creation tool for sustainable behaviour by local communities and

builds upon the theoretical literature and insights of transition management,

backcasting and literature on inner/outer contexts of behaviour and learning.

... differs from other ‘traditional’ transition arenas by its integration of insights

from backcasting and internal context of human behaviour as well as by its

focus on the individual level.

.. should result into processes of reflection on individual and group level

allowing for new strategies to emerge on how individual/groups needs are

met and also into experiments with innovative practices as alternatives to

established ones

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The community arena

36

The community arenaKey activities Key output

0. Pre-preparation A. Case orientation B. Transition team formation

A. Initial case description for each pilotB. Transition team

1. Preparation & Exploration

A. Process designB. System analysis C. Actor analysis (long-list and shortlist of relevant actors) + interviews

A. Community Arena process planB. Reframed challengeC. Actor identification + insight inner context behaviour

2. Problem structuring & Envisioning

A. Transition Arena formationB. Problem structuring process + meeting

C. Selection of key priorities D. Participatory vision process + meeting

A. Frontrunner networkB. Individual and shared problem perceptionsC. Guiding sustainability principles D. Individual and shared visions

3. Backcasting, Agenda Building & Target Setting

A. Backcasting meeting and interviewsB. Formulation agenda and specific actionsC. Defining transition paths + meeting

A. Backcasting analysisB. Community action agendaC. Transition paths

4. Experimenting & Implementing

A. Dissemination of arena, visions and agenda B. Coalition forming & broadening the networkC. Conduct transition experiments

A. Embedded resultsB. Change agents networkC. Experiment portfolio

5. Monitoring & Evaluation

A. Monitoring and evaluation of method and content (process) + meetingB. Monitoring and evaluation of individual level (inner context) + meeting and interviews

A. Adaptation methodological framework (during process), and lessons learned for local and EU-level governanceB. Insight in drivers and barriers for sustainable behaviour

Hypotheses

• Build on present sustainable behavioral niches• Explicit attention to structures will raise

awareness and provide action perspective• Collective reflection might stimulate collective

action (e.g. collective purchasing, local food production, sustainable mobility)

• Inclusion of different worldviews and lifestyles might help to ‘normalize’ sustainable behavior in neighborhoods

Impact, sustainability, possibility, desirability,…?

TM: evolving theory and practice

Monitoring,

evaluating and

adapting

Developing sustainability images, coalitions and joint transition-agendas

Problem structuring, envisioning and

organizing transition-arenas

Mobilizing actors and transition-

experiments

TM 1.0Creating space and

convergenceArenas,

experimentsDiscourse and

culture

Monitoring,

evaluating and

adapting

Developing sustainability images, coalitions and joint transition-agendas

Problem structuring, envisioning and

organizing transition-arenas

Mobilizing actors and transition-

experiments

TM 2.0Focus on

breakthroughsInstitutions for

transitionUpscaling and

structural change

Transition governance principles (acceleration)

• Coordination accelerating transition dynamics

• Guiding build-up towards sustainability• ‘Controlled’ break-down• Safe-guarding diversity and flexibility• Dealing wit/anticipating resistance and

barriers• Leading role for business, citizens, networks• Activistic idealism and strategic gaming

TM 2.011

From• Frontrunners

• Searching/learning/experi-menting

• Predevelopment• Creating space• Deepening/broadening• Developing discours/language• Initiating/starting-up/building-

up• Knowledge development

To• First followers (of the

mainstream)• Institutionalisation

• Take-off/acceleration• Making use of space• Scaling-up/structural change• Action oriented• Embedding/breaking-down

• Diffusion

TM 2.011

From To

• Transitionanalysis• Arenas• Visions• Scenarios • Agendas/pathways

• Experiments • Monitoring/

evaluation

• Tippingpoint-/phase-analysis• Transitioncoalitions• Public/political debate• Pathway-analyses• Development plans/business

cases/legal innovation• Destabilising

actions/interventions• Quantitative t-mon/reflexive

pattern monitoring

What is TM?

• Framing• Learning for• Experimenting for• Mobilising • Empowering• Institutionalising

Thank you for your attention

For more information and publications:loorbach@fsw.eur.nlwww.drift.eur.nlwww.ksinetwork.orgwww.twitter.com/drk75