Collapse and Existential Risk

Haydn Belfield

Centre for the Study of Existential Risk

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Modelling Societal Collapse Workshop February 2018 – with Prof. Jared Diamond

• Can we model and predict collapse?

• No: ‘Wild’ systems are high in ‘interference’ and ‘noise’

• Yes: similar factors, enough case-studies

• How to avoid cherry-picking

• Endogenous vs exogenous

• Decentralisation vs collapse

• Historical vs contemporary

Avin, S., Wintle. B., Weitzdörfer, J., Ó hÉigeartaigh, S., Sutherland, W., Rees, M. (2018). Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks. Futures.

Avin, S., Wintle. B., Weitzdörfer, J., Ó hÉigeartaigh, S., Sutherland, W., Rees, M. (2018). Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks. Futures.

Avin, S., Wintle. B., Weitzdörfer, J., Ó hÉigeartaigh, S., Sutherland, W., Rees, M. (2018). Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks. Futures.

Does Collapse Matter?

• Is survival likely?

• Is recovery likely?

• Is a fast recovery likely?

• Are multiple recoveries likely?

Why Collapse Matters in the Long-Run

Why Collapse Matters in the Long-Run