cogita, disce, apta 25-oct-15 opr: aojk-edg unclassified 1 special warfare education group...

Cogita, Disce, AptaCogita, Disce, Apta

Apr 21, 2023OPR: AOJK-EDGUNCLASSIFIED1

Special Warfare Education Group (Airborne)

Pakistan: Disputed Boundaries in KashmirThe overall classification of this briefing is: UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED



AGENDA:

Introduction

History of Pak-India conflict

Geography of Pakistan

Pakistani Politics in regards to India

Military budget in Pakistan versus India

Pakistan’s Economy

Social Stigmas of India and Pakistan conflict

Water Rights and Infrastructure

Media and the conflict

Significance to US National Security Strategy ( and regional implications)

Pakistan Kashmir Conflict



Kashmir is a region in the north of Pakistan and India that has been in conflict for some time. The war in Afghanistan and the larger global conflict against terrorism has overshadowed this conflict and kept it largely out of media attention for some time now. The withdraw of US troops from Afghanistan is beginning to raise concerns to the involved parties and the rest of the world again.

The dispute over the Kashmir border between Pakistan and India is a leading cause of regional instability in Pakistan, which directly affects US regional interests and negatively impacts broader US security interests as outlined in the USNSS.




Chronology/History


1947Partition of India creates

Pakistan

1948Muhammed Ali Jinnah assassinated;

1st War with India over Kashmir

1956Constitution proclaims

Pakistan an Islamic Rep.

1958 General Ayyub Khan takes over

19652nd War with India over

Kashmir

1971East Pakistan secedes – Civil War.

India supports E. Pakistan.

1972Simla peace agreement w. India

creates new Kashmir border

1980US pledges military assistance to

Pak as Russia invades Afghanistan

1998Pakistan conducts nuclear

tests (after India)

1999Pak forces clash w/ Indian

military vic. Kargil

2001 Pakistan supports US in GWOT

Dec 2001-Ind/Pak mass troops

Along border

APR 2005Bus services resume between PAK and India after 60 years

May, 2002Pakistan test fires 3 med range

missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads

2003Ind/Pak declare a cease

fire

2011 March - The prime ministers of India and Pakistan meet to watch a cricket match



Geography

Of

Pakistan

•Tribal Areas

•Khyber-Pakh

•Balochistan

•Kashmir





Afghanistan

India

Iran

TajUzb

Geography

Of

Pakistan

•Tribal Areas

•Khyber-Pakh

•Balochistan

•Kashmir

Turkmenistan



Rivers of Pakistan



Pakistani military strategy for a possible war with India

War on the Siachen Glacier

Future issues faced by the PAK MIL in Kashmir

-Containment of VEO spread into Kashmir

-Spill over of extremism into India




Economic




Political

11 May 2013 Elections

•First transition from/to elected government in Pakistan’s history

• New government to take control in June

•Violent Lead-Up to Elections (Pakistani Taliban)

• Taliban claims elections are anti-Islamic

•New (Returning) Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif

• Historically, pursues peace in Kashmir

• Remains committed to peaceful Kashmir solution IAW UN Resolution




Political

11 May 2013 Elections (Cont’d)

•Pakistan Muslim League – N (PML-N) gains power

• Conservative, capitalist, pro-agriculture

• Strongly opposes religious extremism

• Historically, pursued/enhanced nuclear expansion in Pakistan

• Promotes strong continued relations with China

•Kashmir dispute to remain among top priorities with new Gov’t

• Sharif supports Kashmiri right to self-determination

• Alleged state-sponsored suppression and human rights violations in India-controlled Kashmir




Political

Pakistan Relations with India

•2004 Cease-Fire currently maintained

• Prime Minister (Elect) Sharif to maintain peaceful relations

• India to hold general elections in 2014

• New Prime Minister could mean renewed conflict or peace progression

Pakistan Relations with China

•China continually provides economic, military, and technical aid

•Close strategic allies

•China supports Pakistan’s claims to Kashmir

*Pakistan-China Relations continue to cause strain on Pakistan-India Relations*




Conflict as it shapes issues with power, water, agriculture:

Indus Waters Treaty 1960

•Three Western Rivers

-Pakistan

•Three Eastern Rivers

-India

Permanent Indus Commission

•Treaty has never been revoked

Tarbela Dam

•Special Services Group SSG

•Tarbela Ghazi Base




Karakoram Highway

-Khunjerab Pass




Conflict in the Media

China Frame/Stance:

-Interest in expansion

India Frame/Stance:

-Control over River & Tributaries

-Has power to pursue Kashmir

Pakistan Frame/Stance:

-wants Kashmir

-hesitant to pursue

Kashmir- Neutral

-Wants Peace & Independence




Religious differences and prejudices complicate the conflict:

-Shia versus Sunni in Pakistan

-Muslim versus Hindu in Kashmir

-Muslim Majority in Kashmir on both sides of the border

-Conflict drives perception of India to Pakistanis;

Perception of India drives further conflict




Regional Implications

•China – Border and road to port considerations

•Afghanistan – Control of the tribal areas

•Central-Asia – spill over of conflict and extremism

•Nuclear Arsenal

“Pakistan is approaching a perfect storm of threats, including rising extremism, a failing economy, chronic underdevelopment, and an intensifying war, resulting in unprecedented political, economic, and social turmoil.”

-Anthony Cordesoman, qtd in “Frenemies: The US-Pakistan Relation is No Love Match,” Time




US National Strategic Implications

•China – Competing superpowers

•Afghanistan – ongoing conflict there

•Central-Asia – spill over of conflict

•India and Pakistan – both countries are allies

•Nuclear Deterrence




The Way Ahead?

“Treat Pakistan as a subject – not as an object – of U.S. Government policy.”

-INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ADVISORY BOARD Report on Pakistan and U.S. Security Strategy, 9 OCT 2012

“While the ultimate responsibility of negotiating a solution is with the involved parties, it is also the right time for the United States to pursue creative, persistent, and discreet high-level diplomacy to help move the peace process forward.”-M. Farooq Kathwari“How the Kashmir Dispute Affects Security in South Asia” Council on Foreign Relations




QUESTIONS

cogita, disce, apta 25-oct-15 opr: aojk-edg unclassified 1 special warfare education group...

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