Coach change – Huge impact factor in football betting

Leagues considered:• English Premier League• German Bundesliga• Spanish LaLiga• Italian Serie A• France ligue 1

Coach change is very often the result of consistent negative form of the team or just bad chemistry between players and coach.

Performance indicator of the coach change:

1.Table standing movement

2.Average point per match (min 0 - max 3 )

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Changing the manager – Premier league

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LaLiga - Spain

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Bundesliga – German

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Seria A – Italy

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Ligue 1 - France

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Changing the manager – football analysis

Year considered: 2014/2015 season changes on coach postMetrics considered:1. Points per game (PPG) 30 days before manager appointed2. Points per game (PPG) of first 30 days new coach is in the club3. Points per game (PPG) of first 60 days new coach is in the club, to

underline/ deny the trend

By comparing the metrics values for each of the league and in total we will generalize the results and gain knowledge.

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Base data – coach changes (www.operabet.com)Team Manager Appoitment League

QPR Chris Ramsey 2015-02-13 Premier LeagueNewcastle Utd. John Carver 2015-01-26 Premier LeagueSunderland AFC Dick Advocaat 2015-03-17 Premier LeagueAston Villa Tim Sherwood 2015-02-16 Premier LeagueWest Brom Tony Pulis 2015-01-01 Premier LeagueCrystal Palace Alan Pardew 2015-01-03 Premier LeagueVfB Stuttgart Huub Stevens 2014-11-25 1.BundesligaHannover 96 Michael Frontzeck 2015-04-20 1.BundesligaHamburger SV Bruno Labbadia 2015-04-15 1.BundesligaHertha BSC Pál Dárdai 2015-02-05 1.Bundesliga1.FSV Mainz 05 Martin Schmidt 2015-02-17 1.BundesligaWerder Bremen Viktor Skripnik 2014-10-26 1.BundesligaFC Schalke 04 Roberto Di Matteo 2014-10-07 1.BundesligaCórdoba CF José Antonio Romero 2015-03-16 La LigaDep. La Coruña Víctor Sánchez 2015-04-09 La LigaUD Almería Sergi Barjuán 2015-04-06 La LigaLevante UD Lucas Alcaraz 2014-10-22 La LigaReal Sociedad David Moyes 2014-11-10 La LigaAC Cesena Domenico Di Carlo 2014-12-08 Serie AAtalanta Edoardo Reja 2015-03-04 Serie AChievo Rolando Maran 2014-10-19 Serie AInter Roberto Mancini 2014-11-14 Serie A

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Changing the coach – key figures

Before coach change, average PPG was 0.604.

Within the first 30 days of new coach, this figure was more than doubled and achieved an impressive level: 1.214 (+101%)

Taking the first 60 days of new coach into account did not change the results drastically (compared to the first 30 days), so after first month trend was rather stabilized: 1.30 (+115%)

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WRAP-UP of knowledge gained

• It appears after a new coach comes, it is fine to believe the team IMMEDIATELY

• Even better is to believe when team is playing at home

• The best strategy for more risk avers bettors is to wait for first 3 matches, how the coach perform.

• In Spanish La Liga the teams are not doing well playing away from home even after 2 months.

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