CO2: Friend or Foe? PPPL Colloquium April 7, 2010 by William Happer Claim: CO2 increases will cause catastrophic global warming. Fact: The alleged catastrophic warming from CO2 is due to large positive feedback from water vapor and clouds. The feedback is probably small or negative. The stretch modes have too high a frequency to contribute much to the greenhouse warming. The main warming comes from bending and rotation (H 2 0 has a permanent dipole moment) 2349 cm -1 frequency too high for greenhouse warming 666 cm -1 (Satans number) greenhouse warming 1388 cm -1 no changing dipole moment, no absorption or emission Only the bending mode contributes to warming. CO2 has no permanent dipole moment, so pure rotation does not absorb ir Much of the infrared radiation from the earth to space comes from water vapor, clouds and CO2 high in the troposphere, and even the stratosphere IR Radiation to Space from Various Parts of the Earth. Clouds at Visible and IR (e.g. 10 micron) Wavelengths Clouds can heat or cool much more than water vapor or CO2 Atmospheric window Clouds have a huge effect! Claim: The temperature of the earth is mainly determined by CO2. Fact: In the past, the temperature of the earth was only weakly correlated with atmospheric CO2 levels. Fact: Temperature changes seem to cause CO2 changes, not vice versa. Vostok Ice Core Data I IPCC 1990 From H. H. Lamb, first Director of CRU in East Anglia IPCC 2001 From M. Mann, the celebrated hockey stick! Greenland settlements began about 986. The last Scandinavians were gone by the late 1400s as the climate continued to cool. Claim: The temperature of the earth has risen at an alarming rate in the last century. Fact 1: Some of the claimed Temperature rise is natural Fact 2: Some of the temperature rise is bogus Fact 3: Whats left is due to CO2 a. b. Climategate CRU record from merging surface temperature data sets from across the world. Raw data not available, lost or destroyed. US data (public record) shows 1930s about as warm as the last decade. Max/Min sensor near John Martin Reservoir, CO (Davey 2005) Tucson, Arizona in a parking lot on pavement. The urban heat island problem: Heat trapping structures tend to surround temperature-monitoring stations over time. s Claim: At 390 ppm we are already above the optimal level of atmospheric CO2 What is the optimal level? the 280 ppm pre-industrial level? the 1000 ppm used in greenhouses? the 2000 ppm of the eocene? Example of proxy measurements of past C0 2 levels: 11 B/ 10 B = 4 P. N. Pearson and M. R. Palmer, Nature, Vol. 406, p. 695 (2000) Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years Enhanced agricultural yields from more CO2 Claim: We can already see the world coming to an end because of CO2 Fact: None of the claims are true sea level continues its historical rise no increase in storms no increase in droughts no trend in sea ice Arizona Precipitation Record Shows No Trend In Periodic Droughts Source: Climate Assessment For The Southwest (University of Arizona) 2006 Why do the nations so furiously rage? A few of many reasons: Secular religion Any change is bad Inadequate time to study science Government need for new tax revenue And finally: , - A. S. Pushkin, Dubrovsky, (1832 )