co-sen, co-gov hickman analytics for consumer energy alliance (feb. 2014)

8/12/2019 CO-Sen, CO-Gov Hickman Analytics for Consumer Energy Alliance (Feb. 2014)

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Copyright 2014 February 17 - 20, 2014 400 InterviewsColorado HAI3226 Margin of Error: +/- 4.9%

Hello, my name is __________ from HAI, a national research firm.

[IF LANDLINE]We're conducting a survey in Colorado to get people's opinions on important issues. This number was selected at randomand according to the research procedure, I would like to speak to the [ALTERNATE: YOUNGEST/OLDEST][ALTERNATE: MAN/WOMAN]at thisaddress who is registered to vote.[IF CELL PHONE]We're conducting a survey of cell phone users in Colorado to get people's opinions on important issues. Since you areon a cell phone, I can call you back if you are driving or doing anything else that requires your full attention. Can you talk safely andprivately now? [IF YES, CONTINUE. IF NO, SCHEDULE CALLBACK]RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS

QB.Are you officially registered to vote in Colorado? YES: Democrat ...................... 27%YES: Republican ................... 39YES: Independent ................. 24YES: Other ............................ 10No/(Dont know) ---------> TERMINATE

QC.At the present time, are you officially registered to vote in that county inColorado? [IF YES] Regardless of how you might feel about the parties, or how youintend to vote this year, are you officially registered as a Democrat, a Republican, anIndependent, or in some other way?

Definitely vote ........................ 80%Probably vote ........................ 20All other responses------> TERMINATE

Q1.When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as a Democrat, anIndependent or a Republican?

ASK IF DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN

Would you call yourself a strong [DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN]or a not very strong[DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN]?

Strong Democrat ................... 19%Weak Democrat ..................... 8Independent .......................... 32Weak Republican .................. 12Strong Republican ................. 24

VOL: (Green Party) ......................... -VOL: (Other/Don't know) ................ 6

TOTAL DEMOCRAT ............. 27%TOTAL INDEPENDENT ........ 32TOTAL REPUBLICAN ........... 36

RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS

Q2.Now I'd like to ask your impressions of some people in public life. As I read each name, tell me whether your impression of thatperson is very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don't recognize a name, just say so.Here's the first one: [READ ITEM]Have you heard of him? [IF YES]Is your impression of that person very favorable, somewhat favorable,somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?ROTATE

FAVORABLE

(Mixed)UNFAVORABLE (Cant

rate)Neverheard

RECOGNITION TOTAL

Very Some Some Very Effective Total Fav Unfav

Mark Udall ........................................................... 14% 33 2 13 13 12 12 75% 88% 46% 27

Barack Obama ................................................... 23% 22 1 9 42 3 - 97% 100% 44% 52

Ken Buck ............................................................. 7% 13 2 13 10 14 41 45% 59% 20% 23

Q3.Mark Udall is running for another term in the U.S. Senate this year. At this point,would you most likely vote for Udall to serve another term in the U.S. Senate, orwould you most likely vote to replace him with a Republican? [IF CHOICE]Do youstrongly or only somewhat support [RE-ELECTING UDALL/REPLACING UDALL WITH AREPUBLICAN]?

Likely DefiniteUDALL: Strongly .................... 22% 25%UDALL: Somewhat ................ 14 12REPUBLICAN: Somewhat .... 11 9REPUBLICAN: Strongly ........ 30 32

VOL: (Depends) .............................. 9 10VOL: (Dont know) .......................... 14 11

TOTAL UDALL ...................... 36% 37%TOTAL REPUBLICAN ........... 41 41

Q4.In particular, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today, the candidates are[ROTATE:]

Mark Udall, the Democrat, AND Ken Buck, the Republican,

for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK]Who would you lean towardsupporting if the election were held today?

Likely DefiniteUdall ....................................... 44% 45%(Lean Udall) ........................... 2 1Buck ....................................... 40 40(Lean Buck) ............................ 2 3

VOL: (Undecided) ........................... 12 11

TOTAL UDALL ....................... 46% 46%TOTAL BUCK ........................ 42 43


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Q5.In the election for Governor later this year, the candidates are [ROTATE:] John Hickenlooper, the Democrat, AND Tom Tancredo, the Republican

If the election were held today, for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED, ASK]Whowould you lean toward supporting if the election were held today?

Likely DefiniteHickenlooper ......................... 49% 47%(Lean Hickenlooper) .............. 2 2Tancredo ............................... 39 40(Lean Tancredo). .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 2 2

VOL: (Undecided) ........................... 9 9

TOTAL HICKENLOOPER ..... 51% 49%TOTAL TANCREDO ............. 40 42

Now for a few questions on other issues.

ROTATE ORDER OF ASKING Q6 and Q7/Q8Q6.Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or stronglyoppose oil and natural gas extraction that uses hydraulic fracturing, sometimesknown as fracking?

SUPPORT: Strongly.............. 35%SUPPORT: Somewhat .......... 25OPPOSE: Somewhat ............ 13OPPOSE: Strongly ................ 16

VOL: (Don't know) .......................... 12

TOTAL SUPPORT ................ 60%TOTAL OPPOSE .................. 28

Q7.Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or stronglyoppose the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline across Montana, SouthDakota, and Nebraska to bring oil from Canada and the Northern U.S. to refineries inTexas?

SUPPORT: Strongly............... 40%SUPPORT: Somewhat ........... 26OPPOSE: Somewhat ............. 10OPPOSE: Strongly ................. 13

VOL: (Don't know) ........................... 11

TOTAL SUPPORT ................. 66%TOTAL OPPOSE ................... 23

ASK IF SUPPORT KEYSTONE [N = 264, MoE = 6.0%]Q8.For this question, assume that President Obama denies the permit to constructthe Keystone XL pipeline. Would Obama denying the permit to construct theKeystone XL pipeline make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhatless likely, or much less likely to vote for Mark Udall for U.S. Senate?

MORE LIKELY: Much ........... 8%MORE LIKELY: Somewhat ... 12LESS LIKELY: Somewhat ..... 15LESS LIKELY: Much ............. 37

VOL: (No difference) ...................... 19VOL: (Don't know) .......................... 10

TOTAL MORE LIKELY.......... 19%TOTAL LESS LIKELY ........... 52

RESUME ASKING ALL RESPONDENTS

Q9.Looking ahead, how important are energy issues, including the Keystone XLpipeline, in terms of how you will vote in this years election? Are they veryimportant, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all indetermining how you will vote?

Very important ....................... 41%Somewhat important ............. 43Not very important ................. 9Not important at all ................ 6

VOL: (Depends) ............................. 1VOL: (Don't know) .......................... 1

TOTAL IMPORTANT ............ 84%TOTAL NOT IMPORTANT .... 15

Now I would like to ask you a few final questions for s tatistical purposes only.D100.Sex. Male....................................... 50%

Female .................................. 50

D101.What is your age? 18-24 ..................................... 8%25-29 ..................................... 730-34 ..................................... 935-39 ..................................... 940-44 ..................................... 845-49 ..................................... 1050-54 ..................................... 655-59 ..................................... 860-64 ..................................... 965+ ........................................ 24

VOL: (Refused) .............................. 2

D105.When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as liberal,somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative or conservative?

Liberal ................................... 18%Somewhat liberal ................... 13Moderate ............................... 18Somewhat conservative ........ 21Conservative ......................... 27

VOL: (Dont know) .......................... 4

TOTAL LIBERAL ................... 31%TOTAL CONSERVATIVE ..... 48

D510.Do you have a landline telephone? Yes ........................................ 68%No .......................................... 31

VOL: (Don't know/Not sure) ........... 1


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D511.Do you have a mobile telephone? Yes .................................................... 87%No ...................................................... 12

VOL: (Don't know/Not sure) ....................... 1

D512.Would you say you mainly use your landline telephone, mainly use your mobilephone, or do you use both equally?

Landline only .................................... 13%Landline mostly ................................ 13Both .................................................. 22Cell mostly........................................ 20Cell only ........................................... 32

VOL: (Don't know) ..................................... *

TOTAL LANDLINE ........................... 26%TOTAL CELL.................................... 52

D300.And just to make sure we have a representative sample of voters, could you pleasetell me your race? [IF NECESSARY]Well, most people consider themselves black or white?

Black ................................................. 3%White ................................................. 79

VOL: (Other) ............................................... 13VOL: (Dont know/Refused) ....................... 5

D301.Do you consider yourself a Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish-speaking American? Yes .................................................... 12%No ...................................................... 84

VOL: (Don't know/Refused)........................ 4

Thank you for taking the time to complete this interview.


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TOTAL 400 46% 27 25 20 20% 23 55 -2 88% 59% 75% 45%

Definite voters 319 49% 30 19 18 21% 26 51 -6 92% 62% 81% 49%

REGIONDenver County 56 63% 16 20 46 9% 36 53 -27 89% 62% 80% 47%

Denver Metro 117 44% 27 26 17 20% 20 60 1 84% 54% 74% 40%

Denver Total 173 50% 24 24 26 17% 25 58 -8 85% 56% 76% 42%Colorado Springs/Pueblo 110 40% 32 26 8 24% 19 55 5 89% 59% 74% 45%

Northeast 53 51% 23 26 28 26% 36 38 -11 90% 81% 74% 62%

West 64 45% 30 23 15 20% 13 62 7 89% 48% 77% 38%

RACEWhite 295 49% 27 22 21 20% 25 54 -5 90% 58% 78% 46%

Other 104 40% 25 32 14 22% 18 57 4 79% 62% 68% 43%

PARTY IDENTIFICATIONDemocrat 108 69% 5 26 64 11% 41 47 -30 87% 68% 74% 53%

Others 148 43% 28 26 15 13% 17 67 -5 87% 44% 74% 33%

Republican 143 33% 42 23 -9 35% 15 49 20 89% 68% 77% 51%

SEX

Male 198 38% 35 24 2

22% 22 54 0

89% 64% 76% 46%Female 202 55% 18 26 37 19% 24 56 -4 86% 54% 74% 44%

AGE

18-39 131 36% 20 40 16 17% 26 56 -9 75% 65% 60% 44%

40-59 131 52% 24 21 28 19% 18 61 0 92% 54% 79% 39%

60+ 138 51% 36 14 15 25% 24 49 1 95% 58% 86% 51%

IDEOLOGY

Liberal 122 71% 6 23 65 7% 37 54 -30 86% 57% 77% 46%

Other 86 41% 20 33 21 11% 22 64 -11 88% 47% 67% 36%

Conservative 192 33% 43 22 -11 33% 14 52 19 88% 66% 78% 48%

POPULARITY/RATE

UDALL:Rate favorably 185 100% 0 0 100 17% 34 47 -17 100% 61% 100% 53%

UDALL: Rate not favorably 116 0% 93 0 -93 34% 17 46 18 100% 67% 100% 54%

BUCK: Can rate 180 55% 33 11 22 45% 51 0 -5 92% 100% 89% 100%

BUCK: Cannot rate 220 40% 22 36 18 0% 0 100 0 84% 26% 64% 0%

Can rate both 161 61% 37 0 24 44% 52 0 -7 100% 100% 100% 100%

RE-ELECTUdall 144 71% 5 23 65 9% 37 53 -28 89% 61% 77% 47%

Republican 163 26% 53 20 -27 33% 15 52 18 89% 62% 80% 48%

Depends/Don't know 92 43% 14 36 30 16% 15 65 1 83% 52% 64% 35%

SENATE VOTEUdall 184 68% 5 25 63 8% 36 55 -28 87% 57% 75% 45%

Buck 169 24% 52 22 -28 37% 11 49 26 89% 65% 78% 51%

Don't know 47 43% 24 32 19 9% 13 76 -4 87% 45% 68% 24%

HYDRAULIC FRACTURING

Support 240 38% 38 22 0 25% 19 54 6 91% 63% 78% 46%Oppose 113 63% 10 25 52 12% 34 53 -23 83% 58% 75% 47%

Don't know 47 51% 11 36 40 17% 15 67 2 79% 41% 64% 33%

KEYSTONESupport 264 41% 34 23 7 25% 19 54 7 90% 61% 77% 46%

Oppose 92 61% 16 23 45 9% 38 53 -29 84% 54% 77% 47%

Don't know 43 51% 8 37 43 15% 16 68 -1 82% 57% 63% 32%

EFFECT ON VOTEMore likely to vote Udall 51 56% 11 33 44 19% 20 60 -1 80% 57% 67% 40%

Less likely to vote Udall 137 35% 47 18 -11 29% 18 51 11 92% 63% 82% 49%

No difference/Don't know 76 40% 25 26 15 22% 18 54 4 92% 61% 74% 46%

ENERGY ISSUES

Very important 163 42% 32 24 10

26% 20 53 6

85% 59% 76% 47%Not very important 236 49% 23 25 26 17% 25 57 -8 89% 59% 75% 43%

Mark Udall Ken Buck

Total Total CR/ Net Net

Total Fav Unfav NH Fav

Total Total CR/

Personal popularity of U.S. Senate candidates

Mark Ken

Udall Buck

Total recognition Effective recognition

Fav

Mark Ken

Udall BuckFav Unfav NH


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TOTAL 400 36% 41 23 -5 46% 42 12 4

Definite voters 319 37% 41 22 -4 46% 43 11 4

REGIONDenver County 56 48% 18 34 31 78% 18 4 60

Denver Metro 117 40% 41 19 -1 46% 41 14 5

Denver Total 173 43% 34 24 9 56% 33 10 23Colorado Springs/Pueblo 110 27% 52 21 -25 38% 51 11 -13

Northeast 53 32% 41 27 -9 37% 45 18 -7

West 64 37% 41 22 -4 40% 49 11 -9

RACEWhite 295 36% 43 21 -7 44% 45 11 -1

Other 104 35% 35 30 1 52% 35 13 18

PARTY IDENTIFICATIONDemocrat 108 81% 6 13 75 95% 5 0 91

Others 148 33% 34 34 -1 44% 32 24 12

Republican 143 6% 74 20 -68 11% 81 8 -70

SEX

Male 198 27% 50 24 -23

35% 53 12 -18

Female 202 45% 32 22 13 57% 31 12 26

AGE

18-39 131 36% 38 25 -2 51% 38 11 13

40-59 131 36% 37 27 -1 45% 42 14 3

60+ 138 36% 47 18 -11 43% 46 10 -3

IDEOLOGY

Liberal 122 70% 12 18 58 82% 10 7 72

Other 86 34% 27 39 8 55% 19 26 36

Conservative 192 15% 65 20 -50 19% 73 8 -54

POPULARITY/RATE

UDALL:Rate favorably 185 55% 23 22 32 68% 22 11 46

UDALL: Rate not favorably 116 8% 76 17 -68 10% 79 10 -69

BUCK: Can rate 180 38% 44 18 -6 46% 47 6 -1

BUCK: Cannot rate 220 35% 38 27 -4 46% 38 16 8Can rate both 161 39% 44 18 -5 46% 48 6 -2

RE-ELECTUdall 144 100% 0 0 100 93% 5 2 88

Republican 163 0% 100 0 -100 8% 83 10 -75

Depends/Don't know 92 0% 0 100 0 40% 29 31 11

SENATE VOTEUdall 184 73% 7 20 66 100% 0 0 100

Buck 169 4% 80 16 -76 0% 100 0 -100

Don't know 47 5% 34 62 -29 0% 0 100 0


Support 240 21% 56 22 -35 30% 60 10 -30Oppose 113 59% 17 23 42 72% 16 13 56

Don't know 47 55% 19 26 36 68% 17 15 51

KEYSTONESupport 264 23% 55 22 -32 30% 57 13 -28

Oppose 92 63% 15 23 48 77% 12 10 65

Don't know 43 58% 9 33 49 79% 13 8 65

EFFECT ON VOTEMore likely to vote Udall 51 39% 44 18 -5 55% 40 5 14

Less likely to vote Udall 137 11% 73 16 -62 15% 74 11 -59

No difference/Don't know 76 34% 31 34 3 40% 40 20 0

ENERGY ISSUES

Very important 163 31% 54 14 -23

39% 54 7 -14

Not very important 236 39% 32 29 8 51% 34 15 17

Udall Buck DK Udall

U.S. Senate vote preference

Q4. Current vote

Net

Q3. Re-elect Udall

Dep Net

Re-electTotal Re-elect Replace /DK


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TOTAL 400 60% 28 12 32 66% 23 11 43 264 19% 52 29 -

Definite voters 319 60% 29 11 31 65% 27 9 38 206 16% 57 27 -

REGION

Denver County 56 43% 40 17 3 47% 36 17 12 27 28% 44 28 -

Denver Metro 117 63% 27 10 36 65% 25 10 39 76 18% 52 29 -

Denver Total 173 57% 31 12 25 59% 29 12 30 102 21% 50 29 -

Colorado Springs/Pueblo 110 63% 25 12 38 77% 16 7 61 85 14% 66 20 -Northeast 53 63% 27 9 36 71% 19 10 51 37 21% 39 40 -

West 64 62% 27 12 35 62% 23 15 39 39 25% 37 38 -

RACE

White 295 62% 28 10 33 68% 21 11 47 202 18% 54 28 -

Other 104 55% 28 17 27 59% 29 11 30 62 24% 45 31 -

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Democrat 108 38% 48 14 -10 39% 43 18 -4 42 36% 22 42

Others 148 54% 30 16 24 65% 24 12 41 96 16% 50 34 -

Republican 143 83% 12 5 71 88% 7 5 81 126 16% 63 21 -

SEX

Male 198 74% 22 4 51 74% 21 5 52 146 18% 56 26 -

Female 202 47% 34 19 12 59% 25 16 33 118 21% 46 33 -

AGE

18-39 131 58% 31 11 27 63% 26 11 37 82 24% 50 25 -

40-59 131 55% 35 10 20 66% 24 10 41 86 18% 54 28 -

60+ 138 66% 19 15 47 70% 19 11 50 96 16% 51 33 -

IDEOLOGY

Liberal 122 35% 53 12 -18 44% 39 17 5 54 32% 35 33

Other 86 52% 29 19 23 57% 29 14 28 49 12% 44 44 -

Conservative 192 80% 12 8 67 84% 10 6 74 161 17% 60 23 -

POPULARITY/RATE

UDALL:Rate favorably 185 49% 38 13 10 58% 30 12 28 107 26% 45 29 -

UDALL: Rate not favorably 116 83% 12 5 72 83% 13 4 70 96 6% 67 27 -

BUCK: Can rate 180 61% 30 9 32 68% 24 8 44 122 17% 54 29 -

BUCK: Cannot rate 220 59% 27 14 32 64% 22 13 42 142 22% 49 29 -

Can rate both 161 63% 29 8 34 69% 24 7 45 111 16% 56 28 -

RE-ELECT

Udall 144 36% 47 18 -11 42% 40 17 2 61 32% 25 43

Republican 163 82% 12 6 70 89% 8 2 81 146 15% 68 16 -

Depends/Don't know 92 58% 29 13 30 62% 23 16 39 57 16% 38 46 -

SENATE VOTE

Udall 184 39% 44 17 -5 43% 39 18 4 79 35% 26 39

Buck 169 85% 10 5 74 90% 7 3 83 152 14% 66 20 -

Don't know 47 54% 31 15 23 72% 20 8 51 33 8% 46 46 -


Support 240 100% 0 0 100 84% 9 7 75 202 20% 55 25 -

Oppose 113 0% 100 0 -100 32% 56 12 -24 36 23% 46 31 -

Don't know 47 0% 0 100 0 55% 16 29 39 26 12% 30 58 -

KEYSTONE

Support 264 77% 14 10 63 100% 0 0 100 264 19% 52 29 -

Oppose 92 23% 69 8 -45 0% 100 0 -100 0 0% 0 0

Don't know 43 36% 32 32 4 0% 0 100 0 0 0% 0 0

EFFECT ON VOTE

More likely to vote Udall 51 78% 16 6 61 100% 0 0 100 51 100% 0 0 1

Less likely to vote Udall 137 82% 12 6 70 100% 0 0 100 137 0% 100 0 -1

No difference/Don't know 76 66% 14 19 52 100% 0 0 100 76 0% 0 100

ENERGY ISSUES

Very important 163 66% 26 8 39 67% 24 9 43 110 18% 63 20 -

Not very important 236 56% 30 14 26 65% 22 12 43 155 20% 44 36 -

More Less NoneNet

Support Oppose DK

Q7. Keystone pipelineQ6. Hydraulic fracturing

N

M

Q8. Effect on Udall vote if stoppe

Keystone pipeline and hydraulic fracturing

Total likely likely /DKSupport

Net

Total Support Oppose DK Support

co-sen, co-gov hickman analytics for consumer energy alliance (feb. 2014)

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