cmcc – centro euro-mediterraneo per i cambiamenti climatici italian ministry for the environment,...
TRANSCRIPT
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
ea
The ADRICOSM-STAR The ADRICOSM-STAR Project:Project:
ADRICOSM INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN AND ADRICOSM INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN AND COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM:COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM:
MONTENEGRO COASTAL AREA AND BOJANA MONTENEGRO COASTAL AREA AND BOJANA RIVER CATCHMENTRIVER CATCHMENT
Euro-Mediterranean Center for Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change and INGVClimate Change and INGV
Bologna, ItalyBologna, Italy
04/10/2304/10/23
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
ea
ADRICOSM-STAR Participants
04/10/2304/10/23
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
ea
The ADRICOSM-STAR areaThe ADRICOSM-STAR area
Second largest maxima in coastal
Chlorophyll in the whole Adriatic Sea
Very complex surface and underground
water system(karstic)
Climate change coastalimpact may be large
04/10/2304/10/23
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
ea
The problems of interestThe problems of interest Assess the environmental quality of the Montenegro Assess the environmental quality of the Montenegro
coastal area and the Bojana river today and in the future coastal area and the Bojana river today and in the future scenariosscenarios
Study the local water cycle over Montenegro in order to Study the local water cycle over Montenegro in order to assess the impact of global change on the coastal area, assess the impact of global change on the coastal area, the Bojana river sediment transport, the water quality in the Bojana river sediment transport, the water quality in the river and the coastal zone. the river and the coastal zone.
Develop and implement a coastal area, river and urban Develop and implement a coastal area, river and urban waters integrated management system that considers waters integrated management system that considers state-of-the-art observational and modelling state-of-the-art observational and modelling components.components.
04/10/2304/10/23
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
ea
ADRICOSM-STAR integrated ADRICOSM-STAR integrated monitoring and modelling approachmonitoring and modelling approach
MultidisciplinaryMulti-platformObserving system(atmospheric, river and oceanographic stations, satellitemonitoring)
Numerical models of atmosphere, marine
and river hydrodynamcs,
underground waterscoupled to water
quality and sediment transport models
Climate change scenario simulations
coupled to regional/local models
High quality input data to policy makers for the environmental assessment of surface, underground, marine and urban waters
04/10/2304/10/23
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
ea
Observational Module: resultsObservational Module: results
New hydrological and water quality station in Fraskanjel(Bojana river)
04/10/2304/10/23
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
ea Large scale oceanographic surveys in Montenegro coastal waters and Bokakotorska Bay
Observational Module: resultsObservational Module: results
04/10/2304/10/23
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
ea
The ADRICOSM-STAR new coastal integrated The ADRICOSM-STAR new coastal integrated observational and modelling approachobservational and modelling approach
Monitoring, forecasting and
Climate scenario impacts
Coastal areaUrban waters RiverUndergroun
dWaters
Atmospheric and climate models
04/10/2304/10/23
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
ea
Bojana river modellingBojana river modelling
Buna Daici modelled and measured flows
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Time
Q (m
³/s)
Calibrated model (daily average)
Calibrated model (monthly average)
Buna Daici Measured (monthly average)
Calibrated model of the river flow
Jan. 2003 Dec. 200304/10/2304/10/23
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
ea
Oceanographic modellingOceanographic modellingUpgrades of the large scale Adriatic forecasting at 2 km resolution, daily forecasts
04/10/2304/10/23
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
ea
150m res150m res
50m res50m res
100m res100m res
50m res50m res
Montenegro coastal strip model nested into theAdriatic model
Oceanographic modellingOceanographic modelling
04/10/2304/10/23
Bojana river suspended sedimentsBojana river suspended sedimentsSimulation (1 month in May 2008)Simulation (1 month in May 2008)
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
ea
Atmospheric modelling:Atmospheric modelling:downscaling of CMCC-IPCC scenariosdownscaling of CMCC-IPCC scenarios
04/10/2304/10/23
Downscaling model area for atmosphere
Input from CMCC global model
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
ea
Scenario A1B (intermediate greenhouse gases)Scenario A1B (intermediate greenhouse gases)
0C
04/10/2304/10/23
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
eaPrecipitation and wind difference Precipitation and wind difference
scenarioscenario(2015-2020) (2015-2020) – today – today (2003-2008)(2003-2008)
Precipitation Wind magnitude
04/10/2304/10/23
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
eaMarine temperatures and currents:Marine temperatures and currents:
scenarioscenario(2015-2020) (2015-2020) today today (2003-2008)(2003-2008)
Surface Current (m/s) and Temperature (°C) 2003-2008
Surface Current (m/s) and Temperature (°C) 2015-2020
04/10/2304/10/23
CM
CC
– C
entr
o eu
ro-M
edit
erra
neo
per
i Cam
biam
enti
Cli
mat
ici
Ital
ian
Min
istr
y fo
r th
e E
nvir
onm
ent,
Lan
d an
d S
ea
Final remarksFinal remarks ADRICOSM-STAR is successfully achieving ADRICOSM-STAR is successfully achieving
the project goalsthe project goals Results show the emergence of climate Results show the emergence of climate
change signals in the Montenegro coastal change signals in the Montenegro coastal area for the period 2015-2020area for the period 2015-2020
Innovative integrated modelling has been Innovative integrated modelling has been demonstrated, needs to be continueddemonstrated, needs to be continued
ADRICOSM-STAR high quality data promise ADRICOSM-STAR high quality data promise to be an important input for environmental to be an important input for environmental policy makerspolicy makers
04/10/2304/10/23