cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and mediterranean hpes · why do we need a cloud-resolving...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Cloud-resolvingensemble simulationsandMediterranean HPEs
Benoît Vié1
Olivier Nuissier1
Véronique Ducrocq1
1Météo-France - CNRM
10 June 2010
![Page 2: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS?
Z500
925 hPa windθ′
w
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24h accumulated precipitation, 12 UTC 2 Nov.2008, AROME forecast and observations
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D1
![Page 3: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS?
◮ Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostaticNWP models produce very realisticforecasts
◮ Realistic 6= Real
◮ Runoff forecasts are very sensitive tothe rainfall forecasts, especially forsmall and steep mountainouswatersheds
◮ EPSs are one method to evaluate the
forecast uncertainty
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24h accumulated precipitation, 12 UTC 2 Nov.2008, AROME forecast and observations
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D1
![Page 4: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS?
◮ Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostaticNWP models produce very realisticforecasts
◮ Realistic 6= Real
◮ Runoff forecasts are very sensitive tothe rainfall forecasts, especially forsmall and steep mountainouswatersheds
◮ EPSs are one method to evaluate the
forecast uncertainty
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24h accumulated precipitation, 12 UTC 2 Nov.2008, AROME forecast and observations
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D1
![Page 5: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS?
◮ Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostaticNWP models produce very realisticforecasts
◮ Realistic 6= Real
◮ Runoff forecasts are very sensitive tothe rainfall forecasts, especially forsmall and steep mountainouswatersheds
◮ EPSs are one method to evaluate the
forecast uncertainty
10
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30
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75
100
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250
300
400
24h accumulated precipitation, 12 UTC 2 Nov.2008, AROME forecast and observations
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D1
![Page 6: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS?
◮ Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostaticNWP models produce very realisticforecasts
◮ Realistic 6= Real
◮ Runoff forecasts are very sensitive tothe rainfall forecasts, especially forsmall and steep mountainouswatersheds
◮ EPSs are one method to evaluate the
forecast uncertainty
10
15
20
25
30
40
55
75
100
150
250
300
400
24h accumulated precipitation, 12 UTC 2 Nov.2008, AROME forecast and observations
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D1
![Page 7: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
The AROME model
◮ 2.5 km horizontal grid spacing
◮ 41 vertical levels
◮ 3D-VAR data assimilation scheme
◮ Bulk microphysics parameterization,6 prognostic water variables: watervapour, cloud water, rainwater,primary ice, graupel and snow(Pinty and Jabouille, 1998, Caniaux,1994)
WMED
FRANCE
NWMED
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D2
![Page 8: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
AROME forecasts and uncertainty12 UTC06 UTC00 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC
ALADIN
AROME
(10 km)
(2.5 km)
ALADIN & AROME data assimilation cycle
24-h forecasts
LBCs ICs
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D3
![Page 9: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
AROME forecasts and uncertainty12 UTC06 UTC00 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC
ALADIN
AROME
(10 km)
(2.5 km)
ALADIN & AROME data assimilation cycle
24-h forecasts
LBCs ICs
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D3
![Page 10: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
AROME forecasts and uncertainty12 UTC06 UTC00 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC
ALADIN
AROME
(10 km)
(2.5 km)
ALADIN & AROME data assimilation cycle
24-h forecasts
LBCs ICs
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D3
![Page 11: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The Ensemble experiments
AROME-PEARP◮ Each AROME assimilation cycle uses LBCs from one
PEARP (global, short range ensemble) member
AROME-PERTOBS◮ Unique LBCs from the deterministic large scale forecast◮ Each AROME assimilation cycle uses randomly perturbed
observations
◮ The AROME-PEARP ensemble samples the uncertaintyon synoptic-scale LBCs and initial conditions
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D4
![Page 12: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
The Ensemble experiments
AROME-PEARP◮ Each AROME assimilation cycle uses LBCs from one
PEARP (global, short range ensemble) member
AROME-PERTOBS◮ Unique LBCs from the deterministic large scale forecast◮ Each AROME assimilation cycle uses randomly perturbed
observations
◮ The ensemble data assimilation technique is known tosample the analysis error quite well (Berre et al., 2006)
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D4
![Page 13: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
The Ensemble experiments
AROME-PEARP◮ Each AROME assimilation cycle uses LBCs from one
PEARP (global, short range ensemble) member
AROME-PERTOBS◮ Unique LBCs from the deterministic large scale forecast◮ Each AROME assimilation cycle uses randomly perturbed
observations
AROME-COMB◮ LBCs from one PEARP member◮ Assimilation of randomly perturbed observations
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D4
![Page 14: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Evaluation periods
31 (18) days◮ 6 October 2008 -> 5 November 2008 (31 days)◮ 15 October 2008 -> 1 November 2008 (18 days)
◮ 20 October 2008 ◮ 1-2 November 2008
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D5
![Page 15: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Example on a case study: 1-2 Nov. 2008
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AROME-COMB
24h accumulatedprecipitation,12 UTC 2 Nov. 2008
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D6
![Page 16: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Precipitation: ROC and reliability diagram
Relative Operating Characteristics◮ Probability Of Detection against False Alarm Rate◮ The upper the curve is, the better the resolution of the
ensemble is
Reliability diagram◮ Observed frequency
againstforecast probability
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4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D7
![Page 17: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Precipitation: Ensemble spread
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4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D8
![Page 18: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Ensemble spread for 925hPa wind speed
Rank histograms: a U-shaped histogram shows ensemble underdispersion
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RMSE vs. Ensemble spread
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D9
![Page 19: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Conclusions
Impact of uncertainty on LBCs and ICs◮ ICs: short forecast ranges◮ LBCs: grows with lead time, rapidly overcomes the
uncertainty on ICs◮ ICs and LBCs: depends on the atmospheric state
Ensemble evaluation◮ Promising precipitation scores◮ Underdispersive ensembles, especially for low-level
parameters to which the HPEs are very sensitive.
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D10
![Page 20: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Conclusions
Impact of uncertainty on LBCs and ICs◮ ICs: short forecast ranges◮ LBCs: grows with lead time, rapidly overcomes the
uncertainty on ICs◮ ICs and LBCs: depends on the atmospheric state
Ensemble evaluation◮ Promising precipitation scores◮ Underdispersive ensembles, especially for low-level
parameters to which the HPEs are very sensitive.
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D10
![Page 21: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Prospects
LBCs◮ How to select a few relevant forecasts from a global EPS?
ICs: perturbed observations method◮ What happens where few observations are available?
What else?◮ Model errors have to be investigated.◮ Other ensemble generation techniques (ETKF...)◮ Huge computing time and data volumes!◮ HyMeX SOP (Sept-Oct 2012, NW Med. Target Area):
a testbed for our cloud resolving EPS
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D11
![Page 22: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Prospects
LBCs◮ How to select a few relevant forecasts from a global EPS?
ICs: perturbed observations method◮ What happens where few observations are available?
What else?◮ Model errors have to be investigated.◮ Other ensemble generation techniques (ETKF...)◮ Huge computing time and data volumes!◮ HyMeX SOP (Sept-Oct 2012, NW Med. Target Area):
a testbed for our cloud resolving EPS
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D11
![Page 23: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Prospects
LBCs◮ How to select a few relevant forecasts from a global EPS?
ICs: perturbed observations method◮ What happens where few observations are available?
What else?◮ Model errors have to be investigated.◮ Other ensemble generation techniques (ETKF...)◮ Huge computing time and data volumes!◮ HyMeX SOP (Sept-Oct 2012, NW Med. Target Area):
a testbed for our cloud resolving EPS
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D11
![Page 24: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
- The END -
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The AROME-PEARP experiment
(x11) (x11) (x11)
12 UTC06 UTC00 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC
PEARP
ALADIN
AROME
(23 km)
(10 km)
(2.5 km)
(x11)
(x11)
AROME & ALADIN Data Assimilation Cycle
24-h forecasts
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D13
![Page 26: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
The AROME-PERTOBS experiment
12 UTC06 UTC00 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC
ALADIN
AROME
(10 km)
(2.5 km)
AROME(2.5 km)
&
(x10)
ALADIN & AROME data assimilation cycle
24-h forecasts
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D14
![Page 27: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Example on a case study: 1-2 Nov. 2008
AROME-PEARP AROME-PERTOBS AROME-COMB
h03 h06 h09 h12 h15 h18 h21 h24
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FREQ
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4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D15
![Page 28: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Example on a case study: 1-2 Nov. 2008
AROME-PEARP AROME-PERTOBS AROME-COMB
h03 h06 h09 h12 h15 h18 h21 h24
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4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D15
![Page 29: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Example on a case study: 1-2 Nov. 2008
AROME-PEARP AROME-PERTOBS AROME-COMB
h03 h06 h09 h12 h15 h18 h21 h24
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4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D15
![Page 30: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Example on a case study: 1-2 Nov. 2008
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AROME-PEARP
24h accumulatedprecipitation,12 UTC 2 Nov. 2008
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D16
![Page 31: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Example on a case study: 1-2 Nov. 2008
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AROME-PERTOBS
24h accumulatedprecipitation,12 UTC 2 Nov. 2008
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D17
![Page 32: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Example on a case study: 1-2 Nov. 2008
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AROME-COMB
24h accumulatedprecipitation,12 UTC 2 Nov. 2008
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D18
![Page 33: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Case study: 20 Oct. 2008
AROME-PEARP AROME-PERTOBS AROME-COMB
h03 h06 h09 h12 h15 h18 h21 h24
0.0
0.5
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P1P2P3P4P5P6P7P8P9P10Obs.
Forecast range (h)
Pre
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tatio
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(mm
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FREQ
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RR24≥ 50 mm probability
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D19
![Page 34: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Case study: 20 Oct. 2008
AROME-PEARP AROME-PERTOBS AROME-COMB
h03 h06 h09 h12 h15 h18 h21 h24
0.0
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P1P2P3P4P5P6P7P8P9P10Obs.
Forecast range (h)
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n m
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(mm
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FREQ
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RR24≥ 50 mm probability
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D19
![Page 35: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Case study: 20 Oct. 2008
AROME-PEARP AROME-PERTOBS AROME-COMB
h03 h06 h09 h12 h15 h18 h21 h24
0.0
0.5
1.0
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2.0 P0
P1P2P3P4P5P6P7P8P9P10Obs.
Forecast range (h)
Pre
cipi
tatio
n m
ean
(mm
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FREQ
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RR24≥ 50 mm probability
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D19
![Page 36: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Case study: 20 Oct. 2008
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AROME-PEARP
24h accumulatedprecipitation,12 UTC 2 Nov. 2008
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D20
![Page 37: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Case study: 20 Oct. 2008
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AROME-PERTOBS
24h accumulatedprecipitation,12 UTC 2 Nov. 2008
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D21
![Page 38: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations and Mediterranean HPEs · Why do we need a cloud-resolving EPS? Cloud-resolving, non-hydrostatic NWP models produce very realistic forecasts Realistic](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042002/5e6def2301bb762b17379f6f/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Case study: 20 Oct. 2008
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AROME-COMB
24h accumulatedprecipitation,12 UTC 2 Nov. 2008
4th HyMeX Workshop, 10 June 2010, Bologna, Italy | B V, O N, V D22