cloud charts - cmt association background • founded updata in 1991 in the uk • developed by...
TRANSCRIPT
David Linton MFTAChief Executive Officer, Updata
Cloud ChartsIdentifying trend changes in global markets
MTA – Annual Symposium 2011
Updata Inc.27th Floor, 1325 Avenue of the AmericasNew York, NY 10019
• Construction – Understanding• Using with other techniques• Multiple Time Frames• What the ‘clouds’ tell us now
Cloud Charts
My Background
• Founded Updata in 1991 in the UK• Developed by experienced TAs• Cloud Charts Book published 2010• Teach Ichimoku Module at UK STA• IFTA Paper on Optimization of Stoplosses
Market Professionals in over 40 countries rely on Updata Professional
Against: Bloomberg, CQG, eSignal, Metastock, Tradestation, Trading Technologies
ConstructionKey Elements
Cloud Chart History1750s – Munehisa Homma - Candlesticks1880s – Charles Dow – Dow theory1930s – Goichi Hosoda – Ichimoku development1940s – Edwards and Magee 1960s – Hosoda publishes book on Ichimoku1980s – IFTA – East meets West (SoCal 1984)1990s – Hidenobu Sasaki publishes book2000s – IFTA Conference Madrid – Rick Bensignor
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo - Definitions• translates from Japanese into English as "one look.“• a glance at equilibrium prices• analyses the mid-points of historical highs and lows• are trend following indicators• can be used in a way similar to moving averages• allows for wider support and resistance zones• decreases the risk of trading false breakouts• conveys a great deal of information
on trend existence, direction, support and resistance
Cloud elements - Japanese
Chart 1-2
Cloud elements - English
Chart 8-1
Cloud Chart Construction1. Turning Line (conversion line) – 9 bar midpoint
2. Standard Line (base line) – 26 bar midpoint
3. Cloud Span A (Span 1) – midpoints of lines 1&2, shifted forward 26 bars
4. Cloud Span B (Span 2) – 52 bar midpoint, shifted forward 26 bars
5. Lagging Line (lagging span) – price shifted back 26 bars
9 – 26 - 52
Line Construction
Chart 8-3
Lines 1&2 v Moving Averages
Chart 8-6
Cloud Span A
Chart 8-7
Cloud Span B
Chart 8-8
Cloud Spans v Moving Averages
Chart 8-9
Lagging Line
Chart 8-12
Lagging Line and Cloud Span B
Chart 8-13
Interpreting Cloud Charts
Chart 9-1
Price interacting with Cloud
Chart 9-3
Bullish and Bearish Zones
Chart 9-4
Trend change
Chart 9-5
Cloud Thickness
Chart 9-8
Lagging Line and the Cloud
Chart 9-11
Lagging Line and Whipsaws
Chart 9-12
Later but Safer
Chart 9-14
Dealing with temporary breaches
Chart 9-15
Turning and Standard Lines
Chart 9-20
Clouds are a Roadmap
Chart 9-22
Cloud Charts in Sideways markets
Chart 9-23
Why do Cloud Charts work?
Figure 9-1
Using Clouds with other
Techniques
Candles and Clouds
Chart 6-9 *
With Oscillators – Sideways Markets
With Oscillators – Trending Markets
P&F Trend changes often agree
P&F Price Targets often concur
Price and Time projection
Chart 11-7
Clouds and Fibonacci Retracements
Cloud Chart of Gold P&F
Use small intra-day box sizes
Clouds on Seasonality
Clouds with CandleVolume
Clouds of Relative Strength Charts
Can you Optimise 9, 26 and 52?
Chart 13-2
Extending the Cloud
Chart 13-5
Cloud Width
Chart 13-8
Distance from Lagging Line
Chart 13-17
Cloud (LL) Bullish Percent
Chart 15-7
Cloud BPC price and lagging line
Chart 15-8
Scanning for cloud crosses
Appendix 1
Multiple Time Frames
Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend or Downtrend?
Chart 10-3
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Figure 10-2
What’s your Time Horizon?
Figure 10-3
Changing time frames
Chart 11-8
Intra-day charts
Chart 11-9
S&P 500 - Medium & Long Term
And Short Term
Have you Back-tested it?
Chart 14-2
Using a Signal Delay
Chart 14-5 *
Optimising for the shorter term
Chart 14-9
Taking the longer term into account
Chart 14-10
Signal delay and weekly cloud filter
Chart 14-11
Backtest Results Cloud CrossesMarch 2010
S&P 500 stocks – 5 years index down 7.5%
Using a signal delay 0-5 days33% profit overall – 60% of stocks profitable
Taking the weekly trend into account + signal delay79% profit overall – 86% of stocks profitable
So what do the Clouds
tell us now?
US Stockmarket Ultra Long Term
78 Quarters = 19½ years
S&P 500 Index – Very Long Term
S&P 500 Index – Long Term
S&P 500 - Medium & Long Term
S&P 500 Index - Short Term
S&P500 Index – Ultra Short Term
Use with P&F Price Targets
Nasdaq – Long Term
Brazil - Bovespa
BSE – Sensex (India)
Oil – Medium & Long Term
Oil medium term pullback
Oil – Short Term Picture
US Nat Gas
Gold – Long Term
Gold – Medium Term
Gold Short Term
Silver – Short & Medium Term
Copper – Medium Term
US Dollar – Long Term
Eurodollar – Medium Term
US Bond Yield trend ending?
And the 10 Year?
S&P 500 Index – Weekly Crosses
Bullish Crosses - Bottoms Bearish Crosses - Tops
David Linton MFTAChief Executive Officer, Updata
Good Luck!The Clouds should help you be luckier
Updata Inc.27th Floor, 1325 Avenue of the AmericasNew York, NY 10019