closing livestock yield gaps in the developing world: imperatives for people and the planet

Closing livestock yield gapsin the developing world:

Imperatives for people and the planet

Global Food Security Consortium Spring Symposium: Closing the Yield Gap

Ames, Iowa, 29–30 April 2014

Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI

Key messages

1 Unprecedented demand for food, especially animal-source food, in developing countries will continue to rise

2 No standardized method exists for assessing livestockyield gaps, but however defined, the gaps are significant

3 Our failed attempts to bridge the livestock yield gapsin developing countries ignored smallholder realities

4 Most milk, meat and eggs in developing countries come from smallholders and are produced and consumed in the same country

5 Big transitions in the world’s smallholder livestock systems present big opportunities to address both technical and institutional issues, benefiting both people and planet

1 Unprecedented demand for food, especially animal-source food, in developing countrieswill continue to rise

By 2050 we will need huge amountsof cereals, dairy and meat

1bn tonnes morecereals to 2050

1bn tonnesdairy each year

460m tonnesmeat each year

4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock

FAO 2013

% change in global demand for livestock products: 2000–2030

milk beef mutton pork poultry meat

eggs0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

FAO 2011

%

Change in global and regional demand for food: Livestock and other commodities

developed developing SSA SA

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

cerealsroot/tubermeatdairy

% c

hang

e 20

05/0

7 to

205

0

Modified from Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012

Gains in meat consumption in developingcountries are outpacing those of developed

1980 1990 2002 2015 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

developingdeveloped

Mill

ion

met

ric t

onne

s

FAO 2006

Consumption of livestock productsto 2050

• Globally:An overall increase in per capita daily consumptionof livestock products of 37% compared to 2000

• Commodities differ:– A 2% decrease in global per capita meat consumption

– A 61% increase in global per capita milk consumption

• Regions differ:– In 2000, Africa and Middle East consumed (in total calorie

consumption) 60% fewer livestock foods than the EC

– In 2050, this will be reversed: highest livestock consumption will be in Africa & Middle East, lowest in the EC

Herrero et al. 2014

2 No standardized method exists for assessing livestock yield gaps, but however defined, the gaps are significant

The ‘gaps’ in livestock yield gap assessments

• Unlike the crop sector, no single, standardizedapproach exists for assessing livestock yield gaps

• Everyone asks the same questions, e.g.:– Where are the greatest yield gaps:

which regions, systems, commodities?– What technical interventions are

most likely to help close these gaps?

• But everyone compares different things, e.g.:– What to compare:

Amount of product? Asset value? Monetary value? – And at what scale:

Between developed and developing countries?Developing countries only? Within countries or systems?

Approaches to assessing livestock yield gaps differ

• BMGF Compares yield potentialsbetween developing anddeveloped regionsand converts these tomonetary values

• ILRI Compares production fromdifferent livestock

genotypesand production systems

• WUR Uses production ecologicalconcepts like systems usedto assess crop yield gaps

Using monetary values to asses gaps

• Comparing livestockyields in developing countrieswith best-in-class in USA/W Europegives a gap of $300 billion

• Comparing livestock yields in developing countries with similar environments in Australia/South America gives a gap of $120 billion

• Comparing the value of interventions indicates that animal genetics, followedby health, provide the most significant potential gains for SS Africa and South Asia

BMGF

Using production from different genotypesand production systems to assess gaps

Good health/re-

prod.

Good health/poor

reprod.

Poor health/good

reprod.

Poor health/poor

reprod.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

poor nutritionimproved nutrition

Ann

ualiz

ed m

ilk o

ff-t

ake

(litr

es)

D = interactiveD

A

AA

A

B = reproduction only

C = health only

B C

Effects of different management strategies on theincrease in value of annualized milk off-take

Using productivity data combinedwith modelling to assess gaps

Genetics Feed Health Rep/management0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

% in

crea

se d

ue t

o in

terv

entio

n

Gains from dairy technology interventions: Value of change in milk yields only

Genetics Feed Health Rep/management0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

% in

crea

se d

ue t

o in

terv

entio

n

Using productivity data combinedwith modelling to assess gaps

Gains from dairy technology interventions: Value of change in milk yields and herd growth

Using technical, market and institutionalinterventions to assess gaps

0153045

GeneticsHealthFeed

% p

ote

ntia

l ga

in f

rom

in

terv

en

tion

s

S.Asia

dairy

E.Afri

ca d

airy

W.A

frica

beef

W.A

frica

s.ru

min

ants

S'n A

frica

sm

all rum

inants

0153045

Mkt accessInput delivery

% p

ote

ntia

l ga

in f

rom

in-

terv

en

tion

s

Using production ecological concepts to assess gaps

Van Ittersum and Rabbinge 1997, Van de Ven et al. 2003With thanks to Simon Oosting and Aart van der Linden

of the Animal and Plant Production Systems groups of Wageningen University

Regardless of the approach used,livestock yield gaps are significant

• Significant gaps exist• Opportunities to address

livestock yield gaps: – Technology:

Health, genetics, feed– Non-technical:

Market access,input delivery

• Need to target – By commodity– By system

Develo

ped

Africa

Near E

ast

L Am

erica

South

Asia

E/SE A

sia0

50

100

150

200

2005/072050

Mea

t m

illio

n m

etric

to

nnes

per

yea

r

Develo

ped

Africa

Near E

ast

L Am

erica

South

Asia

E/SE A

sia0

100

200

300

2005/072050

Milk

mill

ion

met

ric

tonn

es p

er y

ear

Greatest in Africa and South Asia

Differences in consumption:Global meat and milk gaps to close

World Bank, FAO,ILRI, AU-IBAR 2014

3 Our failed attempts to bridge the livestockyield gaps in developing countriesignored smallholder realities

Why past attempts to closelivestock yield gaps failed

We failed to take sufficient account of the realities of the users −the world’s small-scalelivestock producers:

• Environment• Climate• Feeds available• Endemic diseases• Local market context• State of infrastructure• Institutions

Exotic genotypes were introducedinto harsh production environments

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Harsh Poor Good

Mil

k yi

eld

(l)

Production environment

Indigenous

X-bred

Exotic

FAILED!

Animals are the products of their genes, their environments and their gene-environment interactions

P = G + E + GE

P is the phenotype The animal we see, its production etc.

G is the genotype The genetic make up of the animal

E is the environment All factors (ambient conditions, health,nutrition, husbandry) except the genesof the animal

GE is the interaction Between the genes and the environment

Animals are also influenced bymarkets, institutions and policies

P = G + E + GE



E is the environment All factors (ambient conditions, health, nutrition, husbandry) except the genesof the animal


MarketsInstitutions

Policies

Animals are also influenced bymarkets, institutions and policies

P = G + E + GE



E is the environment All factors (ambient conditions, health, nutrition, husbandry) except the genesof the animal


Monogastric production systems arealready in rapid transition to industrial

2000 2050 2000 2050 2000 20500%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

smallholderindustrial

Europe Latin America Africa/Middle EastHerrero et al. 2014

Over 30% of African monogastric

production will still be smallholder in 2050

Most food of the world is producedon small mixed crop-and-livestock farms

Developing-country mixed crop-livestock systems, most of them smallholders, supplythe large proportionof livestock products

These mixed farming systemsproduce much of our meat and milk

• Mixed systems are an important sourceof ruminant meat in 2000 and 2050– Europe: 42% mixed temperate– Latin America: 48% mixed humid– Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid

• Mixed systems are an equally important source of milk– Over 50% of milk comes from crop-

livestock farms, regardless of the region– The big increases in milk production

to 2050 will continue to be in mixed systems, esp. in Africa and Middle East

Small-scale mixed crop-livestockfarmers are (surprisingly) competitive

East African dairy• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers• Small- and large-scale Kenyan dairy producers have same

levels of efficiency and profits

Vietnam pig industry• 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 animals • Pig producers with 1−2 sows have lower unit costs

than those with more than 4 sows• Industrial pig production could grow to meet

no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years • Smallholders will continue to provide most of the pork

IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012

5 Big transitions in the world’s smallholder livestock systems present big opportunities to address both technical and institutional issues to benefit both people and the planet

We can, and should, respond holisticallyto the rising demand for livestock foods

Increase production to benefit poor people and the planet

• People: Equity– more product for the market = more income– more benefits for women, who make up 2/3

of the 1 billion poor reliant on livestock

• People: Health and nutrition– more available and affordable

animal-source foods– more balanced diets– risk-based food safety policies

• Planet: Environment– greater efficiency– fewer animals– smaller footprint– reduced GHGs

Trajectories of growth for the livestock sectorStrong growthIntensifying and increasingly market oriented often transforming smallholder systems

Fragile growthWhere remoteness, marginal land resources or agro climatic vulnerability restrict intensification

High growthwith externalitiesIntensified livestock systems with diverse challenges including the environment and human health

Trajectory

‘Strong growth’

Sector

Ruminant meat and milk, esp. in SSA, India− Pork in some regions

Issues

− Sustainable productivity - Market access and food safety− Zoonotic outbreaks

Opportunities

Novel approaches spanning sustainable productivity, markets, institutional and policy issues, risk analyses

‘Fragile growth’ Some smallholder and pastoral systems; little part in the production response

− Multiple endemic diseases− Zoonoses− Source of disease− Movement controls

Mostly public sector interventions, mitigating vulnerability, improving resilience

‘High growth with externalities’

Mostly monogastric− China for all sectors

− Environmental - Drug resistance− Climate impacts on new vector and pathogen dynamics− Disease scares

Modalities of operation with private sector largely established.Managing environment and health risks and consumer demand

Distinguishing opportunities

Strong growth in developing-countrylivestock sectors are opportunities

• Of the world’s almost 1 billion smallholder livestock producers, it’s expected that:﹣One-third will find alternate livelihoods﹣One-third may or may not remain part of

the transformation of the livestock sector﹣One-third will succeed at market-oriented livestock livelihoods

• The on-going transitions in smallholder livestock systems thatwill take place in coming decades present opportunities to close yield gaps not only of commodity levels but also of environment, equity and health benefits

MarketsInstitutions

Policies

Animal health★Vaccines★Diagnostics

★Delivery systems

Markets & institutions★New business arrangements

★Good access to markets

Health & nutrition★Risk- not rule-based regulations

★Controlled zoonoses★Balanced diets

Environment★High feed efficiency★Wide use of crop

residues

Feed★Viable feed markets

★Improved feeds/feed strategies★Judicious biomass use

Genetics★Improved local

breeds★Breeds well-matched

to environments

Annual losses from selected diseasesANIMAL HEALTH

BMGFEndopara

sites

PPRCBPP

Ectopara

sites

CCPPFM

DTry

ps

Shoat pox

Newcastl

e

Bruce

llosis

Bovine TBLS

DRVF

ECFBVD

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

South AsiaAfrica

Billi

on $

lost

yea

rly

AfricaSouth Asia

The cost• Emerging animal disease outbreaks in the last decade: $200bn• Zoonoses (1998–2009): $6.7bn/yr

More indicators• Global animal health = multi-billion-dollar industry• Global human health market = $1,000 billion• Global animal health market

(livestock + pet + other) = $20 billion• Global livestock health market = $13 billion• Africa and South Asia = $0.5 billion• Market shares = drugs 63%, vaccines 25%, feeds 15%• Africa = +15.7% year-on-year growth, India 8 %

Significant costs in developing countriesANIMAL HEALTH

Research-based livestock successesANIMAL HEALTH

• Research solutions for animal diseases:﹣Vaccines (East Coast fever)﹣Diagnostics

• In Uganda, where pork consumption is skyrocketing, and Vietnam, where pork is the preferred meat, projects are enhancing the smallholder pig value chain and helping these countries ensure the safety of their pork products.

Vaccines save lives of animals that bothincrease food security and reduce poverty

ILVAC – a global vaccine initiativeANIMAL HEALTH

OpportunitiesFEEDS

• Produce more and better quality– Crop varieties with improved

residue quality/quantity– Forages

• Better use available feed– Via processing (chopping)– Feed mixtures (rations)

• Import feed into the system– From areas of surplus to deficit– Concentrates

• Potential environmental ‘win-win’

Research-based livestock successesFEEDS

• 70% of production cost – FEED

• 70% of feed – CROP RESIDUES

• Potential huge demand for grain for MONOGASTRICS

• Opportunities:– Improved crop residue

quantity and quality– Improved use of crop residues

with other feed resources– Balancing trade offs in biomass use– Use of sorghum and other alternates

to maize for monogastrics

Matching genotype and environmentBREEDS

Tools based on newly discovered bacterial molecular defence systems that use proteins to destroy pathogen DNA by slicing it up open new biological and medical frontiers, allowing quick, efficient and precise gene editing in any cell or species.

These tools allow targeted, single-base changes to a genome.

With them, we can greatly improve traits of interest using existing within-species variation for rapid, high-precision cross-breeding.

Matching genotype and environmentBREEDS

These molecular systems will help us produce animalshighly suited to a variety of environmental challenges,such as disease, drought, poor feed:

In the past, making an animal with multiple genetic changes usually required creating separate animals with single changes and then crossbreeding them to produce offspring with multiple changes. The new tools allow multiple genetic changes to be made in one step, by putting multiple guide RNAs into the cell.

‘It just completely changes the landscape.’. . .

The pace of new discoveries and applications is dizzying.‘All of this has basically happened in a year…’

− A powerful new way to edit DNA, New York Times, 3 Mar 2014

Research-based livestock successesBREEDS

• Rather than importing exotic breeds to address livestock yield gaps in developing countries, which often is

﹣costly and﹣complex

• Opportunities exist to better use indigenous genetic resources:

﹣By combining traits incross-bred animals

﹣By better matchinggenotypes with environments

• Examples include red Maasai sheep and cross-bred dairy cows in E Africa

Food safety for foodMARKETS

• 90% of animal products are produced and consumed in the same region

• Over 70% of livestock productsare sold ‘informally’

• There are major opportunities toensure that milk, meat and eggs aresafe for consumption (e.g. viarisk assessments and risk- ratherthan rule-based regulations)

• ‘Intensifying’ livestock production systems bring people and animals closer together, increasing the threat of zoonotic disease outbreaks and spread

• Research evidence forsmallholder dairying included:

﹣Risk analysis ofinformal milk marketing

﹣Employment and incomebenefits for the poor

• Business/market developmentlinks poor livestock producersand feed suppliers to moresophisticated input/output systems

﹣A dairy ‘hub’ approachhas been widely adopted

Research-based livestock successesMARKETS

Conclusions

• The big increases in demand for, consumption and production of livestock commodities are all happening in developing countries

• In developing countries, livestock commodities come mainly from smallholders, a trend expected to continue for decades

• Addressing livestock yield gaps holistically −and attending to the realities of resource-scarce production − has potential to:– Support the world’s smallholders in achieving

global food and nutritional security– Reduce world poverty and increase equity– Cut the environmental footprint of animal-source foods

Key messages

1 Unprecedented demand for food, esp. animal-source food,in developing countries will continue to rise

2 No standardized method exists for assessing livestockyield gaps, but however defined, the gaps are significant

3 Our failed attempts to bridge the livestock yield gapsin developing countries ignored smallholder realities


5 Big transitions in the world’s smallholder livestock systems present big opportunities to address both technical and institutional issues, benefiting both people and planet

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