climatic impact assessment models of the upper thames ......presentation outline ... −climate...
TRANSCRIPT
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Climatic Impact Assessment Models of the Upper Thames River Basin
The University of Western Ontario
P. Prodanovic and S. P. Simonovic
CFCAS Project Meeting, October 26, 2006, London, Ontario
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Presentation Outline
• Inverse approach
• Hydrologic models (Event, Continuous)
• Example of hydrologic model use
• Need for combined models
• Outlines of Event, Continuous, and Combined model reports
• Project book outline
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WeatherGenerator
GlobalCirculation
Model
LocalClimate
Data
Hydrologic Model
Locationof interest
Critical Events
User
Scenarios
Guidelines
System Dynamics Model
InflowState
Auxiliary Constant
Outflow
Inverse Models
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Use of Event Model @ Byron
Peak Flow Hazard Situation
460 cms Water overtops banksat the forks
990 cms Top of dykes at London
1080 cms Property flooding begins
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200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1 10 100 1000
Flow
@ S
t. M
arys
(cm
s)
Gumbel Return Period (yrs)
Hist B11 B21
150
300
450
600
750
900
1 10 100 1000
Flow
@ E
alin
g (c
ms)
Gumbel Return Period (yrs)
Hist B11 B21
400
800
1200
1600
2000
1 10 100 1000
Flow
@ B
yron
(cm
s)
Gumbel Return Period (yrs)
Hist B11 B21
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1 10 100 1000
Flow
@ S
t. M
arys
(cm
s)
LP3 Return Period (yrs)
Hist B11 B21
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
1 10 100 1000Fl
ow @
Eal
ing
(cm
s)LP3 Return Period (yrs)
Hist B11 B21
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
1 10 100 1000
Flow
@ B
yron
(cm
s)
LP3 Return Period (yrs)
Hist B11 B21
Event Model
Results
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Current Hydrologic Models
• What the impacts are (increased flood frequency, more property flooding, droughts, etc.)
• What should be done (evaluate current safety/design levels, rehabilitate infrastructure, educate, etc.)
• How to select and implement new guidelines???
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Combined Model
• Test impact of different management options/guidelines as they evolve over time
• Guide a selection of particular set of policies
• Show interaction between social and physical domains
• Can be used to gain insight into driving forces of change and help users learn
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Combined Model Schematic
PotentialEvapotranspiration
Canopy andSurface Storage
FloodDamage
Population andBusiness Sectors
UrbanLand
ConcentrationTime Of
DirectRunoff
GroundwaterStorage
DroughtLevel
PrecipitationTemperature
InfiltrationCapacity
MaximumSurfaceStorage
Soil Storage
Percolation
GW Recharge
Excess
Water Use
Baseflow
Vegetation
Infiltration
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Combined Model Scenarios
ClimateScenarios Scenarios
Socioeconomic
Scenario
Base
InfWat
RedWat
RedWatLimLand
SwitchToSW
Base
InfWat
RedWat
RedWatLimLand
SwitchToSW
B11
Base
InfWat
RedWat
RedWatLimLand
SwitchToSW
Hist
B21
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Event/Continuous Model Report
• Introduction− Problem of Climate Change− Climate Change Research− Outline of the Report
• Inverse Approach to Climate Change− Methodology− Event Hydrologic Model− Weather Generator Model− Inverse HydroClimatic Link
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Event/Continuous Model Report
• Upper Thames Case Study Watershed− Watershed Description− Climate Scenario Modelling− Weather Generator Modelling− Hydrologic Modelling− Regional Analysis
• Results and Discussions− Hazard Identifications− Inverse Flood/Drought Risk Relationship
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Event/Continuous Model Report
− Use of the Inverse Approach− Summary of Results− Recommendations for new Management
Guidelines
• Conclusions
• References
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Combined Model Report
• Introduction− The Problem of Climate Change− Climate Change Research− Integrated Water Resources Management
• Systems Thinking Approach• System Dynamics Simulation
− Organization of the Report
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Combined Model Report
• Methodology− Inverse Approach to Climate Change− Weather Generator Modelling− Continuous Hydrologic Modelling− System Dynamics Modelling
• Definition of Concept of Feedback
− Integrated Water Resources Modelling− Hydrologic and SocioEconomic Outputs
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Combined Model Report
• Upper Thames River Basin Study− Watershed Description− Climatic Impact Analysis
• Climate Scenarios• SocioEconomic Scenarios
− Integrated Water Resources Model• Continuous Hydrologic Model• System Dynamics Model• Coupling of Hydrologic and System
Dynamics Models
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Combined Model Report
• Results and Discussions− Climate Scenario Outputs− SocioEconomic Outputs
• Floods• Droughts• Urban Sectors• Rural Sectors• Land and Water Use
− Summary− Recommendations for new Management
Guidelines
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Combined Model Report
• Conclusions
• References
• Appendix− Flood and Drought Frequency Analysis− Results (~300 pages)− Model Code (~300 pages)
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Project book outline
Assessment of Water Resources Risk and Vulnerability to Changing Climatic Conditions
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Front matter
• Project Information
• Project Team
• Executive Summary
• Table of Contents
• List of Figure, List of Tables
• Appendices, CD ROM
• Remarks by the editors
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Introduction
• Modelling climate change
• Impacts of climatic change on the management of water resources systems
• Scale issues
• Downscalling methods
• Alternative approaches
• Inverse method
• Practical implications
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Introduction cont'd
• Integration of socioeconomicclimatic feedbacks for water resources management
• Introduction of the Upper Thames River basin and water management problems
• Outline of the rest of the report
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Inverse approach to modelling impacts of climatic change
• Identification of critical hydrologic exposures
• Hydrologic modelling – transformation of critical hydrologic exposures into corresponding critical meteorological conditions
• Weather generator – simulation of critical meteorologic conditions under present and future climate scenarios
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Inverse approach to modelling impacts of climatic change cont'd
• Assessment of frequency of critical meteorological events causing specific water resources risks from the weather generator outputs
• System dynamics modelling of socioeconomicclimatic feedbacks
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Water resources management in the Upper Thames River basin
• Description of the basin
• Water resources management issues
• Vulnerabilities of the Upper Thames River basin to climatic change
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Aspects of vulnerability to droughts and floods in the Upper Thames River basin
• Stakeholder engagement
• Perspective on droughts
• Perspective on floods
• Case study design – identification of vulnerable areas of the watershed
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Hydrologic modelling of the Upper Thames River basin
• Flow and precipitation regimes in the Upper Thames River basin
• Hydrologic model selection− Event model− Continuous model
• Selection of calibration and verification data for hydrologic modelling− Event hydrologic modelling− Continuous hydrologic modelling
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Hydrologic modelling of the Upper Thames River basin cont'd
• Hydrologic model of the Upper Thames River basin− Event model− Continuous model
• Calibration, verification and sensitivity analysis of hydrologic models
• Generation of synthetic design storms for the Upper Thames River basin
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Development and application of a KNN weather generating model for the Upper Thames River basin
• The KNN algorithm
• Strategic resampling
• Model applications
• Model improvements and Karen's work
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Analyses of climatic change impacts of the Upper Thames River basin management
• Flood risk analysis− Flood damage estimation in the Upper
Thames River basin− Results of Linda's work
• Drought risk analysis− Results of Linda's work
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System dynamics model of socioeconomicclimatic feedbacks in the Upper Thames River basin
• Model development
• System description (model sectors)
• Identification of feedback mechanisms
• Model data
• Simulation scenarios
• Results (including CD ROM)
• Discussion of model results
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Guidelines for management of the Upper Thames River basin under climatic change
• Results of Linda's work
• Main conclusions from the system dynamics simulations− Scenarios− Conclusions
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Questions?