Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on agriculture in

Asian monsoon region (CAAM)

Project leader: Prof. Masaru Mizoguchi

Department of Global Agricultural ScienceThe University of Tokyo 1

The First International Workshop of CAAM3-5 March 2012

What is CAAM Project?

• under the research framework of the Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) – One of 7 selected-projects– Biodiversity, Climate, Land, Water, Agriculture, Health, DIAS

• from 2011 to 2015 (by the end of March 2016)

• supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT)

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Budget in 5 years

• (2011) 63 Million JPY • (2012) 54 Million JPY • (2013) 50 Million JPY (hopefully)• (2014) 50 Million JPY (hopefully)• (2015) 50 Million JPY (hopefully)

• (Total) 　 Approx. 267 Million JPY

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Objective of this workshop

• To discuss our research implementation and collaboration in each country – by exchanging present research activities related

with CAAM project

• To make short presentation – about research activities on the related topic and

expectation for CAAM project.

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Background• Asian monsoon region

– Large population (more than 60 % in the world)– Many agricultural countries– Rapid development– Rapid change in land use

• Need for adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture– against the predicted climatic changes– Control of GHG from agricultural fields

• Problem– Lack of agro-meteorological and climatological data-bases

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Research plan

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Project aims

• To improve the reliability of future climate prediction

• To develop the information platform – which will be useful to design adaptation and

mitigation strategies in agriculture – against the predicted climatic changes in Asian

monsoon region

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Research targets• Development of agro-meteorological and

climatological data-bases • Evaluation of land surface conditions on climate • Elucidation of the effects of climatic changes on

major crops • Development of the information platform to

design adaptation and mitigation strategies of major crops against the predicted climatic changes– in Asian monsoon region

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Objectives

• Development of information system on agrometeorological and climatological data in Asian monsoon region – that can be utilized in DIAS (Data Integration and

Analysis System)

• Evaluation of land surface conditions on climate characteristic in Asian monsoon region – by utilizing climate model outputs available in DIAS

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Objectives• Elucidation of climate changes on major crops in

Asian monsoon region – by field surveys and development of evaluation

system utilizing meteorological data and crop models• Development of information platform to design

adaptation strategies of major crops – against the predicted climatic changes – to evaluate the mitigation potential – by reducing green house gasses from agricultural

sector in Asian monsoon region

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Planned benefits• Development of information platform on climate

changes, land use, and agro-meteorology, – that on the prediction of major crops against the predicted

climatic changes for designing adaptation and mitigation strategies in Asian monsoon region

• Education of young scientists in Asian developing countries who will lead researches on– adaptation and mitigation strategies against the future

climatic changes– development of regional collaboration network by them

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Planned benefits

• Development of research platform – for adaptation and mitigation policies in Asian agricultural

sector – against the future global warming in the coming post-Kyoto

Protocol period

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Members• Climate change research team 1 (CCR-1)

– Department of Geography, Tokyo Metropolitan University (GEO-TMU)

– Leader: Dr. Hiroshi G. Takahashi• Member: Ikumi Akasaka

• Climate change research team 2 (CCR-2)– Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Marine-

Earth Science and Technology (RIGC-JMSTEC)– Leader: Prof. Jun Matsumoto

• Members: Shin-ya Ogino, Nobuhiko Endo, Hisayuki Kubota, Shuichi Mori

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Members• Agricultural effect research team 1 (AER-1)

– Department of Global Agricultural Science, The University of Tokyo (GAS-UT)

– Leader: Prof. Masaru Mizoguchi• Members: Seishi Ninomiya, Kazuhiko Kobayashi

• Agricultural effect research team 2 (AER-2)– National Agricultural Research Center, National

Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARC-NARO)

– Leader: Dr. Kei Tanaka• Members: Takuji Kiura, Hiroe Yoshida

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Members• Agricultural effect research team 3 (AER-3)

– National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences– Leader: Dr. Tsuneo Kuwagata– Members: Shigeto Sudo, Yusuke Takada, Kazunori

Minamikawa

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1) Development of Agro-climatological Data-base in the Developing Countries in Asian Monsoon Region (Climate Change Research Team 1: CCR-1) (JAMSTEC)

2011-

2012

Collection and digitization of agro-meteorological and climate data

2012-

2013

Completion and opening of the agro-climate database

2014-

2015

CCR2

Scenario data of agro-climatic conditions from AER1, 2

2013-

2014

Overseas collaboratinginstitutes

2012-

2013

In-situ observation (Vietnam, Philippines)

DIAS

　 Routine obs.duration of sunshine, temperature, humidity, wind speed, rainfall

Estimated valuessolar radiation

longwave radiationpotential

evapotranspirationclimatic wetness

Comparisons

Calculation

Formulae

Special obs.solar radiationlongwave radiation

Development of station-based and gridded database

Improvement of surface water and energy budget model and calculation of agro-meteorological elements

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2) Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover (LULC) Changes on the Asian Monsoon Climate - Land-Atmosphere Interaction Study - (Climate Change Research Team 2: CCR-2) (Tokyo Metropolitan University)

2011-

2012

Long-term changes in rainfall (inter-comparison of several rainfall datasets)

Boundary condition datasets for climate simulation (soil moisture etc.)

2012-

2013

Impact of LULC changes on Asian monsoon climate using regional climate model

2014-

2015

Meteorological data from

AER2,3

2013-

2014

Inter-comparison of CMIP3/5 in terms of Land-Atmospheric interaction.

Long-term changes in Rainfall over 40 years in May

＋

ー

DIAS

Meteorological data from CCR1

＋

ー

Takahashi et al. (2010)

Takahashi (2011)

Rainfall Change due to land use change

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Presets for joint research(Thailand, Indonesia)

3) Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region Based on a Field Survey -Validation of evaluation system by field survey - (Agricultural Effect Research Team 1: AER-1) (Univ. of Tokyo)

Cropping survey and understand their characteristics

Examination of potential cultivation by crop models　　

　　Possible cultivation test for

suitable crop system

2011

2012 -

2013

2013-

2014

Development of infrastructure for Web applications use

2015

Spinach fieldrice cassava spinach

CCR-1

AER-2

Rain-fed rice field

Cassava field

Simulator for Cultivation Possibility of Rice

AER-3

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Rice cultivation possibility prediction tool

Collecting crop models & params.（ for Asian Monsoon Region ）

4) Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region Based on a Field Survey - Construction of an Assessment System Using Meteorological Data and Crop Models - (Agricultural Effect Research Team 2: AER-2) (NARO)

Rice Cultivar A

Spinach Cassava ・・・

・・・

Implementing cultivation simulators with flexibility which can exchange a crop model

Simulator execution　　　　　　↓Climate change evaluation

Results of Climate Change Research Meteorological Data +Climate Change Coef.

• Clop models• Web applications• Framework for

developing applications

Existing Results2011-

2012

2012

2013-

2014

Improvement of the framework

VerificationCorrection

Implementing web applications　→ Deploying to DIAS

2015Improvement of simulators

Rain Fed Rice Field

Rice Cultivar B

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5) Development of Information Platform to Design Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies of Major Crops against the Predicted Climatic Changes in Asian Monsoon Region(Agricultural Effect Research Team 3: AER-3) (NIAES)

2011 -2014

Collecting data of meteorology, soil, land cover and agriculture

Evaluation of soil temperature and moisture of cropland

2012 -2014

Development of information platform for adaptation and mitigation strategies

2015

2014

2011 -2014

Compilation of agro-climate change scenarios

Measurement of greenhouse gas emissions from cropland

CCR-1

AER-1, 2

Rice field

Foreign Institutes for joint research

Database for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies

CCR-2

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