climate scenarios for regional applications, selected cases of latin america abel centella
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1 ST Latin American and the Caribbean Regional Workshop Assessment for Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC) San José 27-30 June 2003. Climate Scenarios for Regional applications, selected cases of Latin America Abel Centella - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
1ST Latin American and the Caribbean Regional Workshop Assessment for Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)
San José 27-30 June 2003
Climate Scenarios for Regional applications, selected cases of Latin America
Abel Centella
Institute of Meteorology
La Habana, Cuba
Experiences from First National Communication Experiences from First National Communication process in some countries in LA regionprocess in some countries in LA region
Countries: Cuba, El Salvador, Guatemala, Panamá, Haití, Saint Kitts & Nevis, Dominican Republic, Paraguay
National Communication Process:
• V&A is one of the issues
• Lack of time for research
• Previous experiences
• Building Capacity
The Work was oriented toThe Work was oriented to
1. Develop a climate base line for each country (grided climate data)
2. Understand the climate change issue
3. The art of climate change scenario development
4. The use of climate changes scenario results
-9 2 .5 0 -9 2 .0 0 -9 1 .5 0 -9 1 .0 0 -9 0 .5 0 -9 0 .0 0 -8 9 .5 0 -8 9 .0 0 -8 8 .5 0 -8 8 .0 01 3 .5 0
1 4 .0 0
1 4 .5 0
1 5 .0 0
1 5 .5 0
1 6 .0 0
1 6 .5 0
1 7 .0 0
1 7 .5 0
1 8 .0 0
-9 2 .5 0 -9 2 .0 0 -9 1 .5 0 -9 1 .0 0 -9 0 .5 0 -9 0 .0 0 -8 9 .5 0 -8 9 .0 0 -8 8 .5 0 -8 8 .0 01 3 .5 0
1 4 .0 0
1 4 .5 0
1 5 .0 0
1 5 .5 0
1 6 .0 0
1 6 .5 0
1 7 .0 0
1 7 .5 0
1 8 .0 0
-9 2 .5 0 -9 2 .0 0 -9 1 .5 0 -9 1 .0 0 -9 0 .5 0 -9 0 .0 0 -8 9 .5 0 -8 9 .0 0 -8 8 .5 0 -8 8 .0 01 3 .5 0
1 4 .0 0
1 4 .5 0
1 5 .0 0
1 5 .5 0
1 6 .0 0
1 6 .5 0
1 7 .0 0
1 7 .5 0
1 8 .0 0
-9 2 .5 0 -9 2 .0 0 -9 1 .5 0 -9 1 .0 0 -9 0 .5 0 -9 0 .0 0 -8 9 .5 0 -8 9 .0 0 -8 8 .5 0 -8 8 .0 01 3 .5 0
1 4 .0 0
1 4 .5 0
1 5 .0 0
1 5 .5 0
1 6 .0 0
1 6 .5 0
1 7 .0 0
1 7 .5 0
1 8 .0 0
-9 2 .5 0 -9 2 .0 0 -9 1 .5 0 -9 1 .0 0 -9 0. 5 0 -9 0. 0 0 -8 9. 5 0 -8 9 .0 0 -8 8 .5 0 -8 8 .0 01 3 .5 0
1 4 .0 0
1 4 .5 0
1 5 .0 0
1 5 .5 0
1 6 .0 0
1 6 .5 0
1 7 .0 0
1 7 .5 0
1 8 .0 0
-9 2 .5 0 -9 2 .0 0 -9 1 .5 0 -9 1 .0 0 -9 0. 5 0 -9 0. 0 0 -8 9. 5 0 -8 9 .0 0 -8 8 .5 0 -8 8 .0 01 3 .5 0
1 4 .0 0
1 4 .5 0
1 5 .0 0
1 5 .5 0
1 6 .0 0
1 6 .5 0
1 7 .0 0
1 7 .5 0
1 8 .0 0
-9 2 .5 0 -9 2 .0 0 -9 1 .5 0 -9 1 .0 0 -9 0 .5 0 -9 0 .0 0 -8 9 .5 0 -8 9 .0 0 -8 8 .5 0 -8 8 .0 01 3 .5 0
1 4 .0 0
1 4 .5 0
1 5 .0 0
1 5 .5 0
1 6 .0 0
1 6 .5 0
1 7 .0 0
1 7 .5 0
1 8 .0 0
-9 2 .5 0 -9 2 .0 0 -9 1 .5 0 -9 1 .0 0 -9 0 .5 0 -9 0 .0 0 -8 9 .5 0 -8 9 .0 0 -8 8 .5 0 -8 8 .0 01 3 .5 0
1 4 .0 0
1 4 .5 0
1 5 .0 0
1 5 .5 0
1 6 .0 0
1 6 .5 0
1 7 .0 0
1 7 .5 0
1 8 .0 0
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 2 0 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 3 6 3 8
Temperatura m edia
-92 .5 0 -92 .0 0 -91 .5 0 -91 .0 0 -90 .5 0 -90 .0 0 -89 .5 0 -89 .0 0 -88 .5 0 -88 .0 013 .5 0
14 .0 0
14 .5 0
15 .0 0
15 .5 0
16 .0 0
16 .5 0
17 .0 0
17 .5 0
18 .0 0
0 5 0 10 0 15 0 20 0 25 0 30 0 35 0 40 0 50 0 60 0 70 0 80 0 90 0 1 00 0
-92 .5 0 -92 .0 0 -91 .5 0 -91 .0 0 -90 .5 0 -90 .0 0 -89 .5 0 -89 .0 0 -88 .5 0 -88 .0 013 .5 0
14 .0 0
14 .5 0
15 .0 0
15 .5 0
16 .0 0
16 .5 0
17 .0 0
17 .5 0
18 .0 0
-92 .5 0 -92 .0 0 -91 .5 0 -91 .0 0 -90 .5 0 -90 .0 0 -89 .5 0 -89 .0 0 -88 .5 0 -88 .0 013 .5 0
14 .0 0
14 .5 0
15 .0 0
15 .5 0
16 .0 0
16 .5 0
17 .0 0
17 .5 0
18 .0 0
-92 .5 0 -92 .0 0 -91 .5 0 -91 .0 0 -90 .5 0 -90 .0 0 -89 .5 0 -89 .0 0 -88 .5 0 -88 .0 013 .5 0
14 .0 0
14 .5 0
15 .0 0
15 .5 0
16 .0 0
16 .5 0
17 .0 0
17 .5 0
18 .0 0
-92 .5 0 -92 .0 0 -91 .5 0 -91 .0 0 -90 .5 0 -90 .0 0 -89 .5 0 -89 .0 0 -88 .5 0 -88 .0 013 .5 0
14 .0 0
14 .5 0
15 .0 0
15 .5 0
16 .0 0
16 .5 0
17 .0 0
17 .5 0
18 .0 0
-92 .5 0 -92 .0 0 -91 .5 0 -91 .0 0 -90 .5 0 -90 .0 0 -89 .5 0 -89 .0 0 -88 .5 0 -88 .0 013 .5 0
14 .0 0
14 .5 0
15 .0 0
15 .5 0
16 .0 0
16 .5 0
17 .0 0
17 .5 0
18 .0 0
-92 .5 0 -92 .0 0 -91 .5 0 -91 .0 0 -90 .5 0 -90 .0 0 -89 .5 0 -89 .0 0 -88 .5 0 -88 .0 013 .5 0
14 .0 0
14 .5 0
15 .0 0
15 .5 0
16 .0 0
16 .5 0
17 .0 0
17 .5 0
18 .0 0
-92 .5 0 -92 .0 0 -91 .5 0 -91 .0 0 -90 .5 0 -90 .0 0 -89 .5 0 -89 .0 0 -88 .5 0 -88 .0 013 .5 0
14 .0 0
14 .5 0
15 .0 0
15 .5 0
16 .0 0
16 .5 0
17 .0 0
17 .5 0
18 .0 0
P recipitación
M AY J U N
J U L AGO
TEMPERATURE
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
19
51
19
54
19
57
19
60
19
63
19
66
19
69
19
72
19
75
19
78
19
81
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
Ano
ma
lías
°C
CUBA
EL SALVADORGUATEMALA
PRECIPITATION
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
19
41
19
44
19
47
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
Ano
ma
lías
(mm
)
CUBA
EL SALVADORGUATEMALA
Correlations between STA in Pacific Regions and Precipitation in El Salvador with Correlations between STA in Pacific Regions and Precipitation in El Salvador with some lags (months)some lags (months)
CLIMATE SCENARIOS WERE CREATED USING MAGICC SIMPLE CLIMATE MODEL
MAGICC/SCENGENUniversity of East Anglia
UK
Simple Climate Model
Structure Representation
CO2
CH4
N2O
Emission scenariosGlobal warming & Climate sensitivity
Global warming, emission scenarios & Climate sensitivity
HADCM2 Reino Unido
UKTR Reino Unido
UKHI Reino Unido
UKLO Reino Unido
CSIRO9/M2 Australia
BMRC Australia
CSIRO9 Australia
GISSEQ Estados Unidos
GFDLLO Estados Unidos
LLNL Estados Unidos
OSU Estados Unidos
CCCEQ Canadá
ECHAM1TR Alemania
ECHAM3TR Alemania
Selecting GCM
Criteria for selection:
• Representation of current climate
• Grid resolution
• Model vintage
• Different projections
Climate projections from different GCMs combined with different GHG scenarios and Climate Sensibilities
THE UNCERTAINTY SPACE
• Emissions
• Climate sensitivity
• GCM regional outputs Which CC scenario we can select?
MCG
Vi = (2XCO2 - 1XCO2)
VMCG = Vi / TMCG
MCS
Taño,MCS = TMAGICC
VVi,año i,año = = VVMCGMCG**TTaño,MCSaño,MCS
Combining Simple and Global Climate Models
Santer (1990)
TEMPERATURE ANNUAL VARIATION
GUATEMALA
PRECIPITATION ANNUAL VARIATION
GUATEMALA
ARIDITY INDEX
GUATEMALA
SOME LESSONS
1. Develop an uncertainty analysis approach
2. Downscaling must be incorporate (e.g High Resolution Regional Model)
3. Individual (country) experiences must be integrated in future work
Unfortunally, a regional proposal for CA & the Caribbean did not classify for the AIACC Grant