ClimateRevelations

12 Simple & Important Things to Know About

Climate Change

Dan MillerManaging Director

The Roda Group

ClimatePlace.org

You may not be interested in climate change,but climate change is interested in you.

Revelation #1

Tom Friedman

Climate change is your issue

Climate change is not a new idea

Revelation #2

“On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon

the Temperature of the Ground”

By Prof. Svante ArrheniusApril 1896

1958 (55 Years Ago)...

Climate change is not a scientific controversy

Revelation #3

97% of climate scientists and every major scientific academy agreethat global warming is real,

is mostly cause by humans,and requires urgent action

Extremely Hot Summers Now Occur 50 Times More Often

Extremely Hot Summers

Carbon pollution is not like other kinds of pollution

Revelation #4

Everything You Need toKnow About CO2 Emissions

• The peak warming is proportional to the cumulative carbon emitted

• It doesn’t matter much how rapidly the carbon is emitted

• The warming you get when you stop emitting carbon is what you are stuck with for the next thousand years

• The climate recovers only slightly over the next ten thousand years

• A trillion tons cumulative carbon gives you about +2ºC global mean warming above the pre-industrial temperature.

A Trillion Tons• We have emitted about

500 GtC so far

• About 500 GtC to go to have a chance to stay below +2°C...

• BUT permafrost melt may itself add ~250 GtC by end of the century

Continuing “business as usual” emissions is not OK

Revelation #5

Extreme Drought

Drought Index: -3 to -6 = Dust BowlSource: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

Sea Level Rise

MIT Temperature Study2009 MIT Study:95% chance that“Business-as-usual”temperature increase will exceed 3.5ºC (6.3ºF) in 2095

MIT Temperature Studyand a 50% chance that temperature will exceed 5ºC (9ºF)!

• “Incompatible with an organized global community

• Likely to be beyond ‘adaption’

• Devastating to the majority of ecosystems

• High probability of not being stable– i.e., temperatures will keep going higher on their own

• Must be avoided at all costs.”

What Does +4°C (+7°F) Mean?

From Prof. Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Energy Centre, UK

But We Can Do Something!

Permafrost

Methane Release from Lake

Other Dangers:All Already Happening

• Reduction of ocean’s ability to absorb CO2 & acidification

• Collapse of forests / increased wild fires

• Spread of deserts• Mega-droughts and floods• Mass extinctions • More extreme weather • Reduction in global food

production

Future Impacts

• Wars over resources

• Abandonment of many major cities

• Massive shortages of food and water

• Collapse of economies

We are all in denial.Revelation #6

Failure of the “Risk Thermostat”We respond strongest

to threats that are: Climate Change is:

Visible Invisible

With historical precedentUnprecedented

Immediate Drawn out

With simple causality With complex causality

Caused by another “tribe” (enemy)Caused by all of us

Have direct personal impactsUnpredictable & indirect impacts

George Marshall, Climate Outreach Information Network

Denial Strategies Displaced commitment “I protect the environment in other ways”

Condemn the accuser “You have no right to challenge me”

Denial of responsibility “I am not the main cause of this problem”

Rejection of blame “I have done nothing wrong”

Ignorance “I didn’t know”

Powerlessness “I can’t make any difference”

Fabricated constraints “There are too many impediments”

After the flood “Society is corrupt”

Comfort “It’s too hard for me to change my behavior”

S. Stoll-Kleemann, et al, Global Environmental Change 11 (2001) 107}117

Other Denial Strategies

• We think of it as an environmental issue

• We deliberately maintain a level of ignorance

• We wait for someone else to act first - the “passive bystander effect”

• Societies develop strategies to avoid action– We place it outside our “norms of attention”– Define it as “far away” - global - not local;

future - not now

What to Do?

First Law of HolesIf you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.

Denis Healey

Revelation #7

What about fracking, tar sands, Arctic drilling, and “All of the

Above” energy policies?

To the surprise of almost everyone, it turns out that you cannot decrease

fossil fuel emissions by increasing them!

Revelation #8

Revelation #9

2 Years Left to Reverse the Trend

We can make it happen

Revelation #10

What Can YOU Do?

1. Believe, learn, engage

2. Reduce your carbon footprint

3. Talk to your family, friends & colleagues and get them engaged.

4. Talk to your elected leaders and demand policy changes

5. Commit to taking specific actions and make a list

Good Ways to Get Engaged

• Join 350.org

• Join CitizensClimateLobby.org

What Can Governments Do?

1. Move to 100% carbon-free electricity generation in 10~20 years (i.e., ban coal)

2. Keep tar-sands and oil shale in the ground

3. Expand research into “geo-engineering”

4. Put a price on carbon...

Clean Energy Credit• Put an increasing fee on CO2

– Enough to eventually increase gasoline by $1/gal

• Distribute 100% of the money collected to every legal resident on an equal basis

• Most people will earn more each year than they pay in higher energy costs!

• Put a Border Duty on products coming from other countries that don’t have a carbon fee

What Else Can Governments Do?

• Stop subsidizing fossil fuels

• Provide low-cost financing for clean energy

• Increase R&D spending on cleantech

• Plan for climate impacts

We must manage the unavoidableand avoid the unmanageable

Cost of acting is cheap compared to the cost of not acting

Revelation #11

An Economic Boom

• Putting a price on CO2 will drive innovation and investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency

• Will trigger an economic boom that will put the Internet revolution to shame

• Will also improve energy security and eliminate the need to fight wars over oil

Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.• We’ll keep the $500B+ we

send to the Middle East in this country, creating millions of jobs.

• From 1998 to 2007, clean energy economy jobs grew 9.1% vs. 3.7% for traditional jobs (Pew Charitable Trusts research)

• Cleantech is currently one of the few growing areas in the California economy

When it comes to action on climate change, we are going to go from impossible to inevitable

without stopping at probable

Revelation #12

But you need to make it happen soon!

For More Information

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