climate resilient horticultural crops of future
TRANSCRIPT
CLIMATE RESILIENT
HORTICULTURAL CROPS OF FUTURE
By
Dr. K.V. PeterWorld Noni Research Foundation Chennai - 600 096
E-mail : [email protected]
Mr. Vikas KumarCollege of Forestry, KAU, Thrissur
E-mail : [email protected] / Mo. No.: 9995093698
Global warming and Ocean Biodiversity
Corals play an important role in the oceanic biodiversity
Coral reefs – for food
Protection from storm surges and erosion
Additional benefits of medicinal research, tourism and
aesthetic beauty
Ocean warming threatens Antarctic wildlife – Penguins, Whales, Seals
and a host of smaller creatures within few decades
Antarctic peninsula has warmed more than 1°C since 1960
Sea ice cover dropped by 20% since 1979
Amount of salt in the top layers of water has also increased
Oxygen is likely to deplete and acidity is likely to increase
Ice cap in Tanzania declining due to global warming and deforestation
Reduction of the Arctic ice cap to its smallest size in at least a century
Instead of reflecting solar radiation, it absorbs more at sea and warms up
Mr. Ban KI – moon U. N. Secretary General - December 2007
Conclusions from Intergovernmental
Pannel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Global warming is real
Polar ice may melt
Sea level will rise
Third of our plant and animal species
could vanish
There will be famine around the world,
particularly in Africa and Central Asia
World economy in 20th century
Industrial revolution
Technology revolution
Evergreen revolution
Our modern era of globalisation
Bali and beyond: A new green economics
World economy during this century
may revolve around the
Green economics and development
Copenhagen Accord ( 7-18 December 2009)
It is an “important beginning”
It also sets a target limiting temperature increases to a maximum of 2°C,
but fails to specify GHG emission cuts that nations need to commit
themselves to in order to meet the goal
A mobilization of $100 billion in annual funding for developing
countries to meet the challenges of climate change from 2020
and also pledges $30 billion by 2012 It contains very few specific figures, commitment or timelines in the
global fight against climate change
Temperature increase by 2100 AD will be around 3°C
Wheat and rice production are likely to decline
The adverse impact of drought is more significant on foodgrains
when compared to that of floods
Area under agriculture is declining
Rate of increase in Indian foodgrains
production is declining since last one-
and - a- half decades
Attributed to frequent occurrences
of weather extremes like floods and
droughts and heat and clod waves
Temperature increase by 1°C with
uncertain rainfall trends across India
since last 100 – 150 years
Temperature and crop projections in India
1. Current scenario
2. Projections
0 1 2 3 4 5
Temperature (°C)
400
450
550C
O2 (
pp
m)
0.8 - 2.4°C
1.0 - 3.1°C
1.5 - 4.4°C
CO2 versus Temperature rise
Economics of climate change: It could cost the global economy almost
$7trillion by 2050-equal to a 20 per cent fall in growth if no action is taken
on greenhouse gas emissions. Taking action now could cost just one per
cent - $350billion of global GDP (Source: Stern report, IPCC, DoE, 2006)
National action plan on climate change in India
Climate change was a challenge that could be overcome only through global
collaborative and cooperative efforts. It focuses on eight missions, which will
be pursued as key components of the strategy for sustainable development.
1. Solar energy
2. Enhanced energy efficiency
3. Sustainable habitat
4. Conserving water
5. Sustaining the Himalayan ecosystem
6. Creating a “Green India”
7. Sustainable agriculture, and
8. Establishing a strategic knowledge platform for climate change
The Green India mission will enhance ecosystem services including carbon
sinks to be called Green India
Sustainable agriculture mission intends making agriculture more resilient to
climate change by identifying and developing new varieties of crops that are
thermal resistance and capable of withstanding extreme weather
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Climate
change
impacts
Agriculture
Forestry
Sea level
Biodiversity
Water
Infrastructure
Health
NATURAL DISASTERS
Global warming
Global cooling
Ozone depletion
UV - radiation
Weather related disasters
Earthquakes
Tsunami
(hit South of
East and West
Coasts of India
on 26th
December, 2004
and wreak
havoc)
Volcanoes Floods and droughts
Cyclones and Anticyclone
Thunderstorms, duststorms and
icestorms, lighting, cloudburst,
mudslips and land slips
Forest fire outbreaks
Heat and cold waves
CO2, Water vapour
Methane, N2O
Aerosols
(Black carbon)
Chlorofluorocarbons
Sulphate particulates
and other air pollutants
Natural and weather related disasters
Lose of wetlands
Deforestation
Effect of biotic and abiotic factors on flowering of cashew
Production requirements by 2020 to meet the balanced diet norms
prescribed by ICMR
Crops Requirement per
day in gms
Requirement in million tonnes
2000 2010 2020
Cereals and millets 420 198.7 237.4 280.99
Pulses and legumes 40 18.92 22.61 26.76
Foodgrains 460 212.62 260.01 307.75
Roots and tubers 75 35.48 42.39 50.18
Vegetables 125 91.66 109.52 129.62
Fruits 50 36.66 43.81 51.85
Milk 150 70.96 84.79 100.35
Fats and oils 22 10.41 12.44 14.72
Sugar 30 14.19 16.96 20.07
Egg 45 21.29 25.44 30.11
Meat 25 11.83 14.13 16.73
Fish 25 11.83 14.13 16.73
Population (millions) - 1004.5 1200.17 1420.54
Source: UN Long Term Populations, ICMR- Dietary requirements for a balanced diet
Impact of droughts on Indian foodgrains production
from 1950-51 to 2011-’12
Source: Foodgrain production-MoA,Govt of India, Droughts: IMD
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1950-51 1955-56 1960-61 1965-66 1970-71 1975-76 1980-81 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11
Pro
du
cti
on
(M
illi
on
to
nn
es
)
Droughts
(1965-66 and 1966-67)
Drought
(1979-80)
Drought
(1987-88)
Drought
(2002-03)
Drought
(2009-10)
Projected Indian foodgrains production from 2000-01 to 2020 - 21
180
200
220
240
260
2802
00
0-0
1
20
01
-02
20
02
-03
20
03
-04
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
20
19
-20
20
20
-01
Year
Ind
ian
fo
od
gra
in p
ro
du
cti
on
(m
illi
on
to
nn
es)
Projected Actual
2012 monsoon season
Actual and predicted monsoon rainfall (% over normal) over India from 1988 to 2012
99
99
98
105
101
97
101
100
98
92 93
99
93
102
98 99
105
87
1021
06
119
92
101 1
06
91 9
3
100
110
100 103
102
96
91
81
96
113
102
101
94
92
103
92
97
96
92
102
108
99
80
90
100
110
120
130
1988 90 92 94 96 98 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Year
Per
cen
tage
over
no
rmal
rain
fall
Actual Predicted
By and large, the monsoon rainfall prediction was correct given by the
IMD when the monsoon was normal while miserably failed in abnormal
years like 1994, 2002, 2009 and 2012 (?). It is a concern in the case of
Indian foodgrains production.
Droughts and floods in June and July 2012 during monsoon season
Rice fields in Karnataka due to lack of rain One day high rainfall
event in Hyderabad
Bagori range of Assam –
flood affected region
Tezpur in Assam –
flood affected region
Global warming will drive out sardines off Kerala coast
Global warming and world foodgrains / world’s hungry
World cereal output in 2005 lowered due to adverse hot and dry weather and
drought also hit crops in parts of the European Union
Death looms for the young in Niger and neighbouring nations
(Mauritania, Mali and Burkina Faso) due to drought and locust attack – 42%
agricultural output fell in 2004 and similar was the situation due to floods in
2007
Droughts in India during 1987, 2002 and 2009 adversely affected foodgrains
production to a considerable extent. Similar was the situation in Australia
during 2002 and 2006 in the case of wheat
Droughts in China and Thailand affected natural rubber production in 2004
causing to price increase in India
Climate change threatens to increase the number of world’s hungry by
reducing the area of land available for farming in developing countries
Farmers inspect a dry dam in Wimmera, Northwest of Melbourne
Australia drought worsens- worst drought in a century
Farmers in Australia too commit suicide
Drought buses-giving farmers a mixture of advice on water saving measures
and social counseling on how to cope with “the Big Dry”
10.12.2006
Worst heat wave since last 130 years
Temperature reached 35°C in Paris, causing heat wave
Europe’s great heat wave of 2003 – 35000 lives and £ 7 billion
economic loss
Heat waves and forest fires wreck havoc across Europe
Heat waves – Countries affected - Spain, Portugal, France and
Italy
Plant growth dropped by 30 % in Europe due to heat wave
One of the worst cold waves in 2010 during winter
Volcano eruption in Iceland– Air service affected
Effect of heat wave during 2003 in Europe
States affected Crops suffered Percentage loss How to reduce the
impact (?)
Parts of Jammu, Punjab,
Haryana, Himachal Pradesh,
Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and
North Eastern States
Damage is more in low - lying
areas where cold air settled
and remain for a longer time
on ground
Mango, Litchi,
Guava, Papaya, Ber
Kinnow, Pine apple,
Sapota, Amla,
Assam lemon, Jack
fruit, Peach
Boro rice ( Assam)
Maize in Bihar (early
sowing), Gram
Mustard
10-100% depending
upon crop and variety
within the crop (mango)
Proper selection of fruit
species /varieties, wind
breaks or shelter belts,
frequent irrigation, smoking,
covering young fruit plants
with thatches or plastic
shelter, air mixing
maintenance of maximum
depth of water in the fish
ponds and their aeration
Weather forewarningFruit size and quality
were affected in
horticultural crops
Temperate fruits such as
apple, peach, plum and
cherry gave higher yield
due to extended chilling.
Growth was arrested in
carp fish in Punjab,
Haryana and Bihar
Prawn (mortality – 10%) In
Bihar, Mirgal, Rohu and
Catla suffered high
mortality due to weather
conditions
Source: The Hindu, dated: 10-1-2004. Prepared by J.S. Samra, Gurubachan Singh and Y.S. Ramakrishna (ICAR)
Occurrence of cold wave (frost and cold spell) during
December-January, 2003 and its effects
Impact of high maximum temperature during March 2004 (Rabi) in
Himachal Pradesh
Increase in maximum m temperature in March 2004- 2.1° C to 7.9°C
Apple : Flowering was early by 15 days
Large-scale flower drop due to acute moisture stress.
Heavy rainfall during second fortnight of April accompanied by sharp fall in
temperature caused poor fruit set
Optimum temperature for fruit blossom and fruit set is 24°C while the region
experienced above 26°C for 17 days
Wheat : 8-10°C above normal in Palampur and surroundings areas during 16-23, March 2004.
Crop stage was at ear head emergence to soft dough stage.
Advance harvest by 15-20 days.
Yield loss was more than 20%
Rapeseed, Mustard
&
Linseed: Flower drop and pod infertility in late sown Brassica spp and forced maturity in normal
sown crop
Yield reduction was up to 60% in rape seed and mustard while 50% in linseed due to
flower withering and poor seed formation
Tea : About 50% reduction in green tea leaves in April when compared to 2003 and 2005.
The yield reduction was seen only after one month. Heavy losses in yield were
noticed in the case of Potato ( matures ahead), vegetable and pea
Egg : The production was less by 20.9 % in poultry egg. It was due to low intake of feed
due to high temperature
Source: Rajendra Prasad and Ranbir Rana. A study maximum temperature during March 2004 and its impact on rabi crops in Himachal Pradesh 2006. Journal of
Agrometeorology 8(1):pp.91-99
Heat Wave (2003) - Damage to Poultry
Andhra Pradesh
¤20 lakhs birds died in May & June 2003
¤ Highest in E. Godavari-7 Lakhs; W. Godavari – 5 lakhs
¤ Egg production decreased in the state by 25%
¤ Total Loss by Rs.27 Crore
Effect of heat stress in poultry
2 - 2.5° C rise in temperature is expected due to global warming
Mortality is high when birds are suddenly exposed to heat wave conditions
(38°C and above). It is common in India during summer.
Heat waves may result in Mortality, Egg size, Quality & Bird flu?
Climate change may result in low egg size with poor quality
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
19
95
-96
19
96
-97
19
97
-98
19
98
-99
19
99
-00
20
00
-01
20
01
-02
20
02
-03
20
03
-04
20
04
-05
Are
a (h
a in
lak
hs)
Autumn Winter Summer
2.76 ha
7.53 ha
0
2
4
6
8
10
1961-62 2005-06
Are
a (
ha
in
la
kh
s)
Decline in paddy lands in Kerala from 1961 - 62 to 2005 - 06
63.3% decline in paddy area
2
3
4
5
1995-9
6
1996-9
7
1997-9
8
1998-9
9
1999-0
0
2000-0
1
2001-0
2
2002-0
3
2003-0
4
2004-0
5
2005-0
6
Are
a (h
a in
lak
hs)
Total paddy area under cultivation (1995-96 to 2005-06) Season-wise paddy area under cultivation (1995-96 to 2004-05)
6.675.27
40
13.64
0
10
20
30
40
50
1975-76 Demand 2005-06 2007-08
Pro
du
cti
on
in
la
kh
to
nn
es
Rice production and its demand over Kerala
Heat threatens paddy crop in Kuttanad - grain weight is likely
to reduce if the soil is not moist due to high maximum
temperature
Global warming may push up prices of foodgrains
Growing demand for food
Unusual rains in Kuttanad in Allapuzha district and kole lands in
Thrissur district destroyed the paddy and the estimated crop loss
was around Rs, 100 corers. It led to increase in prices of paddy
within the State.
Chayote
Grain Amaranth
Mushroom
Medicinal Mushroom
Vegetables of North East
Vegetables of North East
Vegetables of North East
Vegetables of North East
Vegetables of North East
Vegetables of North East
Vegetables of North East
Vegetables of North East
PIGEON PEA
