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Page 1: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Man

aged

by

UT

Man

aged

by

UT

--Bat

tell

eB

atte

lle

for

the

Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

for

the

Dep

artm

ent o

f Ene

rgy

Pre

sen

ted

by

Pre

sen

ted

by

Joh

n B

. D

rake

Hig

h R

isk

/ H

igh

Pa

yoff

Tech

no

log

ies

Co

mp

uta

tio

na

l E

art

h S

cie

nce

s G

rou

p

Co

mp

ute

r S

cie

nce

an

d M

ath

em

ati

cs D

ivis

ion

Page 2: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Ou

tlin

e

•A

SC

AC

–B

ER

AC

Ad

vis

ory

Re

com

me

nd

ati

on

s

•It

wo

uld

be

gre

at

if …

•B

ut

firs

t a

wo

rd f

rom

ou

r sp

on

sors

Page 3: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Glo

ba

l Wa

rmin

g is

Big

ge

st C

ha

lle

ng

e

•W

AS

HIN

GT

ON

, A

ug

. 2

7 (

UP

I) -

-A

U.S

. o

ffic

ial s

ays

me

eti

ng

en

erg

y n

ee

ds

in t

he

2

1st

ce

ntu

ry w

hil

e f

igh

tin

g g

lob

al

wa

rmin

g w

ill b

e o

ne

of

the

big

ge

st

cha

lle

ng

es

hu

ma

nit

y h

as

face

d.

U.S

. D

ep

art

me

nt

of

En

erg

y U

nd

ers

ecr

eta

ry

for

Sci

en

ce R

aym

on

d O

rba

ch s

ays

m

ee

tin

g t

ha

t ch

all

en

ge

wil

l d

em

an

d

"tra

nsf

orm

ati

on

al b

rea

kth

rou

gh

s in

b

asi

c sc

ien

ce."

Page 4: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Glo

ba

l Te

mp

era

ture

incr

ea

ses

are

hu

ma

n-i

nd

uce

d

Sim

ulat

ions

car

ried

out

usin

g N

CA

R,

OR

NL,

S

imul

atio

ns c

arrie

d ou

t us

ing

NC

AR

, O

RN

L,

and

NE

RS

C c

ompu

ting

plat

form

san

d N

ER

SC

com

putin

g pl

atfo

rms

Glo

bal

ly a

vera

ged

su

rfac

e ai

r te

mp

erat

ure

Glo

bal

ly a

vera

ged

su

rfac

e ai

r te

mp

erat

ure

1.2

1.2

0.8

0.8

0.4

0.4

0.0

0.0

--0.40.4

Anomalies from 1980 Anomalies from 1980––1919 (K) 1919 (K)

1880

1880

1900

1900

1920

1920

1960

1960

1940

1940

1980

1980

2000

2000

Ob

serv

atio

ns

Ob

serv

atio

ns

Nat

ura

l fo

rcin

gs

Nat

ura

l fo

rcin

gs

All

forc

ing

sA

ll fo

rcin

gs

Page 5: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Att

rib

uti

on

of

ob

serv

ed

ch

an

ge

sH

uman

Hum

an--I

nduc

ed C

hang

es in

the

Hyd

rolo

gy o

f the

Wes

tern

In

duce

d C

hang

es in

the

Hyd

rolo

gy o

f the

Wes

tern

U

nite

d S

tate

s

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Bar

net

t et

al.

(200

8)B

arn

ett

et a

l. (2

008)

AB

ST

RA

CT

AB

ST

RA

CT

Obs

erva

tions

hav

e sh

own

that

the

Obs

erva

tions

hav

e sh

own

that

the

hydr

olog

ical

cyc

le o

f the

wes

tern

Uni

ted

hydr

olog

ical

cyc

le o

f the

wes

tern

Uni

ted

Sta

tes

chan

ged

sign

ifica

ntly

ove

r th

e la

st

Sta

tes

chan

ged

sign

ifica

ntly

ove

r th

e la

st

half

of th

e 20

th c

entu

ry. W

e pr

esen

t a

half

of th

e 20

th c

entu

ry. W

e pr

esen

t a

regi

onal

, mul

tivar

iabl

e cl

imat

e ch

ange

re

gion

al, m

ultiv

aria

ble

clim

ate

chan

ge

dete

ctio

n an

d at

trib

utio

n st

udy,

usi

ng a

hig

hde

tect

ion

and

attr

ibut

ion

stud

y, u

sing

a h

igh--

reso

lutio

n hy

drol

ogic

mod

el fo

rced

by

glob

al

reso

lutio

n hy

drol

ogic

mod

el fo

rced

by

glob

al

clim

ate

mod

els,

focu

sing

on

the

chan

ges

clim

ate

mod

els,

focu

sing

on

the

chan

ges

that

hav

e al

read

y af

fect

ed th

is p

rimar

ily a

rid

that

hav

e al

read

y af

fect

ed th

is p

rimar

ily a

rid

regi

on w

ith a

larg

e an

d gr

owin

g po

pula

tion.

re

gion

with

a la

rge

and

grow

ing

popu

latio

n.

The

res

ults

sho

w th

at u

p to

60%

of t

he

The

res

ults

sho

w th

at u

p to

60%

of t

he

clim

ate

clim

ate--

rela

ted

tren

ds o

f riv

er fl

ow, w

inte

r re

late

d tr

ends

of r

iver

flow

, win

ter

air

tem

pera

ture

, and

sno

w p

ack

betw

een

air

tem

pera

ture

, and

sno

w p

ack

betw

een

1950

and

199

9 ar

e hu

man

1950

and

199

9 ar

e hu

man

--indu

ced.

The

se

indu

ced.

The

se

resu

lts a

re r

obus

t to

pert

urba

tion

of s

tudy

re

sults

are

rob

ust t

o pe

rtur

batio

n of

stu

dy

varia

bles

and

met

hods

. The

y po

rten

d, in

va

riabl

es a

nd m

etho

ds. T

hey

port

end,

in

conj

unct

ion

with

pre

viou

s w

ork,

a c

omin

g co

njun

ctio

n w

ith p

revi

ous

wor

k, a

com

ing

cris

is in

wat

er s

uppl

y fo

r th

e w

este

rn U

nite

d cr

isis

in w

ater

sup

ply

for

the

wes

tern

Uni

ted

Sta

tes.

Sta

tes.

Page 6: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

CC

SM

4 M

od

el

De

velo

pm

en

t

Dev

elop

men

t of t

he fo

urth

ver

sion

of t

he C

CS

M; O

ne o

f the

D

evel

opm

ent o

f the

four

th v

ersi

on o

f the

CC

SM

; One

of t

he

bigg

est i

mpr

ovem

ents

is th

e si

mul

atio

n of

EN

SO

. bi

gges

t im

prov

emen

ts is

the

sim

ulat

ion

of E

NS

O.

Use

of t

he C

CS

M to

pro

duce

sho

rtU

se o

f the

CC

SM

to p

rodu

ce s

hort

--ter

m c

limat

e fo

reca

sts

to 2

030;

Hig

her

term

clim

ate

fore

cast

s to

203

0; H

ighe

r at

mos

pher

e re

solu

tion

(0.5

atm

osph

ere

reso

lutio

n (0

.5oo )

pro

duce

s be

tter

rain

fall

in S

E U

SA

. )

prod

uces

bet

ter

rain

fall

in S

E U

SA

.

Not

e im

prov

ed S

E U

SA

rai

nfal

l.N

ote

impr

oved

SE

US

A r

ainf

all.

Page 7: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Ca

rbo

n-L

an

d M

od

el

Inte

rco

mp

ari

son

Page 8: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

CA

M s

cala

ble

dyc

ore

in

teg

rati

on

an

d e

valu

ati

on

•C

ub

ed

-sp

he

re d

yco

res

in C

AM

:

–M

oti

vati

on

: m

ore

sca

lab

le d

yco

res

–U

sin

g N

CA

R's

HO

MM

E w

ith

Sp

ect

ral

Ele

me

nts

–P

roce

ss s

plit

mo

de

l wit

h f

ull

dyn

am

ics

sub

cycl

ing

–Next steps:

eva

lua

tio

n o

f A

MIP

re

sult

s, n

ew

ve

rtic

al

tre

atm

en

t, i

mp

licit

me

tho

ds

Ne

w a

nd

no

tab

le:

–D

eve

lop

ed

co

nse

rva

tive

fo

rmu

lati

on

of

spe

ctra

l

ele

me

nts

ba

sed

on

co

mp

ati

bili

ty.

Fir

st d

yco

re

in C

AM

to

lo

cally

co

nse

rve

bo

th m

ass

an

d e

ne

rgy

–D

eve

lop

ed

eff

icie

nt

hyp

er-

vis

cosi

ty t

o r

ep

lace

ele

me

nt

ba

sed

filt

eri

ng

–S

cale

d t

o 8

0K

pro

cess

ors

on

BG

/L

–C

orr

ect

ly s

imu

late

d m

ult

isca

le d

yn

am

ic t

urb

ule

nce

tra

nsi

tio

n

Sn

apsh

ot

Sn

apsh

ot

Mo

nth

ly m

ean

M

on

thly

mea

n

M. T

aylo

r (S

and

ia)

M. T

aylo

r (S

and

ia)

Page 9: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Ear

th S

yste

m G

rid C

ente

r fo

r E

nabl

ing

Tech

nolo

gies

: (E

SG

Ear

th S

yste

m G

rid C

ente

r fo

r E

nabl

ing

Tech

nolo

gies

: (E

SG

--CE

T)

CE

T)

Arc

hite

ctur

e of

the

next

gen

erat

ion

of E

SG

-CE

T

Page 10: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Th

e B

ig P

ictu

re:

CC

SM

de

velo

pm

en

t, t

he

Cli

ma

te

En

d S

tati

on

(C

ES

), a

nd

IP

CC

AR

5•

CE

S F

Y 2

00

8 a

llo

cati

on

–8

mil

lio

n C

PU

ho

urs

on

Ja

gu

ar

Cra

y X

T4

–1

mil

lio

n C

PU

ho

urs

on

IB

M B

G/L

•E

art

h S

yste

m G

rid

dis

trib

uti

ng

mo

de

l re

sult

s

Page 11: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Th

is w

ill

req

uir

e e

xtra

ord

ina

ry

com

pu

tati

on

al

cap

ab

ilit

y

D. K

eyes

, “A

Sci

ence

Bas

ed C

ase

for

Larg

eD

. Key

es, “

A S

cien

ce B

ased

Cas

e fo

r La

rge--

Sca

le

Sca

le

Sim

ulat

ion

(SC

aLeS

), S

IAM

New

s 36

(7),

200

3S

imul

atio

n (S

CaL

eS),

SIA

M N

ews

36(7

), 2

003

Est

ablis

hing

a P

etaS

cale

Col

labo

rato

ry fo

r th

e E

stab

lishi

ng a

Pet

aSca

le C

olla

bora

tory

for

the

Geo

scie

nces

, UC

AR

/JO

SS

, M

ay 2

005

Geo

scie

nces

, UC

AR

/JO

SS

, M

ay 2

005

“Eff

ecti

ve s

pee

d”

incr

ease

s“E

ffec

tive

sp

eed

” in

crea

ses

cam

e fr

om

fas

ter

har

dw

are

cam

e fr

om

fas

ter

har

dw

are

and

imp

rove

dan

d im

pro

ved

alg

ori

thm

sal

go

rith

ms

“Eff

ecti

ve s

pee

d”

incr

ease

s“E

ffec

tive

sp

eed

” in

crea

ses

cam

e fr

om

fas

ter

har

dw

are

cam

e fr

om

fas

ter

har

dw

are

and

imp

rove

dan

d im

pro

ved

alg

ori

thm

sal

go

rith

ms

00224466881010 CY

198

0C

Y 1

980

CY

199

0C

Y 1

990

CY

200

0C

Y 2

000

CY

201

0C

Y 2

010

Log effective gigaflops Log effective gigaflops

Hig

h O

rder

Hig

h O

rder

Au

toco

de

Au

toco

de

AR

K

AR

K

inte

gra

tor

inte

gra

tor

com

ple

x ch

emco

mp

lex

chem

Hig

her

H

igh

er

ord

er A

MR

ord

er A

MR

NE

RS

C R

S/6

000

NE

RS

C R

S/6

000

NE

RS

C S

P3

NE

RS

C S

P3

Cra

y 2

Cra

y 2

AM

RA

MR

Lo

w M

ach

Lo

w M

ach

Issu

eM

oti

vati

on

Co

mp

ute

fac

tor

Sp

atia

l res

olu

tio

nP

rovi

de

reg

ion

al d

etai

ls10

3 –10

5

Mo

del

co

mp

lete

nes

sA

dd

“n

ew”

scie

nce

10

2

New

par

amet

eriz

atio

ns

Up

gra

de

to “

bet

ter”

sci

ence

102

Ru

n le

ng

thL

on

g-t

erm

imp

licat

ion

s10

2

En

sem

ble

s an

d s

cen

ario

sR

ang

e o

f m

od

el v

aria

bili

ty10

1

Tota

l co

mp

ute

fact

or

1010

–1012

Page 12: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Bo

ttle

ne

cks

to p

rog

ress

in

cli

ma

te m

od

eli

ng

inv

est

me

nts

by

AS

CR

an

d B

ER

AS

CR

AS

CR

--

Fac

ilitie

s/in

fras

truc

ture

F

acili

ties/

infr

astr

uctu

re

inve

stm

ents

inve

stm

ents

BE

RB

ER

--

Bas

ic s

cien

ce/o

bser

vatio

nal/m

odel

ing

Bas

ic s

cien

ce/o

bser

vatio

nal/m

odel

ing

inve

stm

ents

inve

stm

ents

Com

puta

tiona

l sol

utio

nsC

ompu

tatio

nal s

olut

ions

Sof

twar

e so

lutio

nsS

oftw

are

solu

tions

Alg

orith

m/a

pplie

d m

ath

sol’n

sA

lgor

ithm

/app

lied

mat

h so

l’ns

Dat

a m

anag

emen

t so

lutio

nsD

ata

man

agem

ent

solu

tions

Net

wor

king

sol

utio

nsN

etw

orki

ng s

olut

ions

Col

labo

ratio

n te

chno

logy

Col

labo

ratio

n te

chno

logy

Com

puta

tiona

l req

uire

men

tsC

ompu

tatio

nal r

equi

rem

ents

Sof

twar

e ne

eds

Sof

twar

e ne

eds

Alg

orith

m n

eeds

(e.

g.,e

ffici

ency

)A

lgor

ithm

nee

ds (

e.g.

,effi

cien

cy)

Dat

a m

anag

emen

t ne

eds

Dat

a m

anag

emen

t ne

eds

Net

wor

king

nee

dsN

etw

orki

ng n

eeds

Col

labo

ratio

n te

chno

logy

nee

dsC

olla

bora

tion

tech

nolo

gy n

eeds

Inve

stm

ents

in b

asic

kno

wle

dge

Inve

stm

ents

in b

asic

kno

wle

dge

Inve

stm

ents

in o

bser

vatio

nsIn

vest

men

ts in

obs

erva

tions

Inve

stm

ents

in m

odel

ing

tech

niqu

esIn

vest

men

ts in

mod

elin

g te

chni

ques

Well balanced? Well balanced?

Ade

quat

e in

vest

men

ts h

ere

to

Ade

quat

e in

vest

men

ts h

ere

to

ensu

re p

rogr

ess?

?

ensu

re p

rogr

ess?

? ⇒ ⇒⇒⇒⇒ ⇒⇒⇒

Page 13: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Sci

en

ce O

pp

ort

un

itie

s

•D

eca

da

l p

red

icti

on

on

re

gio

na

l sc

ale

s

–A

ccu

racy

in g

lob

al

mo

de

ls

•C

lim

ate

ext

rem

es

(he

at

wa

ves,

dro

ug

ht,

flo

od

s, s

yn

op

tic

eve

nts

, e

tc.)

•C

lim

ate

va

ria

bil

ity

(lo

w f

req

ue

ncy

va

ria

bil

ity

)

•W

ate

r cy

cle

, p

art

icu

larl

y i

n t

he

tro

pic

s

–P

ote

nti

al im

pa

cts

on

bio

fue

l

–In

tera

ctio

ns

of

the

wa

ter

cycl

e o

n m

itig

ati

on

an

d a

da

pta

tio

n s

tra

teg

y

–A

mp

lifi

er

on

ca

rbo

n c

ycle

re

spo

nse

to

glo

ba

l w

arm

ing

•H

um

an

ind

uce

d im

pa

cts

on

ca

rbo

n c

ycle

–H

alf

imp

act

s a

re t

ake

n u

p b

y t

he

sys

tem

(w

ill th

at

cha

nge

)

–H

ow

will cl

ima

te c

ha

nge

aff

ect

th

e c

arb

on

cyc

le

•S

ea

le

vel

rise

–M

elt

ing

of

the

Gre

en

lan

d a

nd

An

tarc

tic

ice

sh

ee

ts

•A

bru

pt

clim

ate

ch

an

ge

Page 14: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Ra

te l

imit

ers

•D

eca

da

l p

red

icti

on

–O

cea

n a

ssim

ila

tio

n

•In

ge

stin

g o

bse

rva

tio

ns

•A

pp

lie

d m

ath

em

ati

cs

•R

ap

id e

xplo

rati

on

of

de

sig

n s

pa

ce

•C

om

pu

tati

on

all

y i

nte

nsi

ve

–E

nse

mb

les,

Re

solu

tio

n A

ssim

ilati

on

me

tho

do

log

y (

4-D

VA

R,

en

sem

ble

Ka

lma

n f

ilte

rs)

–A

tmo

sph

eri

c re

solu

tio

n

•E

xpli

cit

rep

rese

nta

tio

n o

f im

po

rta

nt

ph

en

om

en

olo

gy

(~

10

0k

m f

ea

ture

siz

e)

•N

ee

d t

o r

ev

isit

pa

ram

ete

riza

tio

n t

ech

niq

ue

s a

nd

ass

um

pti

on

s

–e

.g.,

sta

tist

ica

l e

qu

ilib

riu

m a

ssu

mp

tio

ns

qu

est

ion

ab

le

•C

ha

lle

ng

e t

o s

imu

lta

ne

ou

sly

& a

ccu

rate

ly r

ep

rese

nt

clim

ate

an

d w

ea

the

r

•C

an

’t n

ece

ssa

rily

re

ly o

n N

WP

exp

eri

en

ce f

or

vis

ion

of

pa

th f

orw

ard

Page 15: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Ra

te l

imit

ers

•C

lim

ate

Ext

rem

es

–A

bil

ity

to

ca

ptu

re h

igh

er-

ord

er

mo

me

nts

of

clim

ate

•H

ea

t w

ave

s, g

row

ing

se

aso

n,

dro

ug

ht,

flo

od

s, s

yn

op

tic

eve

nts

, e

tc

–B

ase

lin

e r

eso

luti

on

s n

ee

d t

o b

e h

igh

er

–D

em

an

ds

on

da

ta s

tora

ge

, m

an

ag

em

en

t, s

cali

ng

of

an

aly

sis

too

ls,

hu

ma

n r

eso

urc

es

–Q

ue

stio

ns

ab

ou

t re

lati

on

ship

s o

f e

xtre

me

eve

nts

to

la

rge

sca

le c

lim

ate

va

ria

bil

ity

Page 16: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Ra

te l

imit

ers

•C

lim

ate

va

ria

bil

ity

(lo

w f

req

ue

ncy

va

ria

bil

ity

)

–S

ep

ara

tin

g s

ign

al

fro

m n

ois

e (

sig

na

ls e

me

rgin

g f

rom

un

forc

ed

va

ria

bil

ity

)

•S

tati

on

ari

ty o

f cl

ima

te s

tati

stic

s

–O

bse

rva

tio

na

lly

lim

ite

d

•le

ng

th o

f in

stru

me

nte

d r

eco

rd

–Li

mit

ed

by

ba

sic

scie

nti

fic

kn

ow

led

ge

•p

roce

ss u

nd

ers

tan

din

g

–C

arb

on

cyc

le

–D

yn

am

ic v

eg

eta

tio

n c

ycle

s (s

ucc

ess

ion

)

–S

cale

in

tera

ctio

n q

ue

stio

ns

(wid

e d

yn

am

ic r

an

ge

in

tim

e/s

pa

ce s

cale

s)

Th

ink

of

mu

ltis

cale

ma

th p

rog

ram

as

op

po

rtu

nit

y

Page 17: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Ra

te l

imit

ers

•W

ate

r cy

cle

–O

bse

rva

tio

na

lly

lim

ite

d

–P

roce

ss u

nd

ers

tan

din

g;

mu

ltis

cale

pro

ble

m (

spa

ns

10

ord

ers

of

ma

gn

itu

de

)

–H

igh

er

reso

luti

on

to

mo

re r

ea

list

ica

lly

ca

ptu

re o

rog

rap

hic

str

uct

ure

s

–H

igh

er

reso

luti

on

to

ca

ptu

re f

un

da

me

nta

l p

he

no

me

no

log

ica

l s

tru

ctu

res

•tr

op

ica

l st

orm

s

•M

eso

sca

le c

on

vect

ive

co

mp

lexe

s

•E

xtra

tro

pic

al

sto

rms/

fro

nts

•S

urf

ace

typ

e (

veg

eta

tio

n a

nd

eva

po

rati

on

)

Page 18: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Ra

te l

imit

ers

•H

um

an

imp

act

s o

n c

arb

on

cyc

le

–O

bse

rva

tio

na

lly

lim

ite

d (

e.g

., b

asi

c ca

rbo

n b

ud

ge

t)

–N

ee

d f

or

ass

imil

ati

on

me

tho

do

log

ies

exp

loit

ing

ne

w d

ata

str

ea

ms

–P

roce

ss m

od

el

lim

ite

d?

•Li

nks

be

twe

en

(te

rre

stri

al

an

d o

cea

n)

eco

syst

em

s a

nd

clim

ate

–Lo

ng

tim

e s

cale

s re

qu

ire

d t

o e

xplo

re e

xpe

rim

en

tall

y

•Lo

ng

eq

uili

bra

tio

n t

ime

s (t

err

est

ria

l a

nd

oce

an

)

Page 19: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Ra

te l

imit

ers

•A

bru

pt

clim

ate

ch

an

ge

–S

ea

le

vel

cha

ng

e

•P

roce

ss m

od

el l

imit

ed

•M

elt

ing

of

Gre

en

lan

d a

nd

An

tarc

tic

Ice

Sh

ee

ts

–A

pp

lied

ma

th o

pp

ort

un

itie

s

–E

xplo

rati

on

of

mu

ltip

le e

qu

ilib

ria

of

the

Ea

rth

sys

tem

an

d i

ts c

om

po

ne

nts

•S

tab

ility

of

the

MO

C

•P

erm

afr

ost

(p

osi

tive

clim

ate

fe

ed

ba

ck v

ia m

eth

an

e b

ud

ge

t)

•U

se o

f im

plic

it m

od

els

; e

xplo

rati

on

pa

ram

ete

r co

nti

nu

ati

on

co

nce

pts

Page 20: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Mo

de

ls

•C

arb

on

cyc

le

•Fo

rcin

g t

erm

s th

at

rep

rese

nt

mu

ltis

cale

na

ture

of

pro

ble

m

–e

.g.,

wa

ter

cycl

e

•N

ee

d f

or

eva

lua

tio

n i

nfr

ast

ruct

ure

(a

cce

lera

te p

roto

typ

ing

pro

cess

)

–Te

st c

ase

s

–D

ata

fo

r e

valu

ati

on

–S

tag

ed

in

cre

ase

s in

co

mp

lexi

ty

–M

od

ula

rize

d f

un

ctio

na

lity

•T

ime

to

sta

rt w

ith

a c

lea

n p

iece

of

pa

pe

r?

–W

ell

ma

na

ge

d e

nd

-to

-en

d m

ult

i-fa

cete

d e

nte

rpri

se

•Q

ue

stio

ns

ab

ou

t re

wa

rd s

tru

ctu

re f

or

de

velo

pm

en

t a

ctiv

itie

s

Page 21: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Alg

ori

thm

s

•S

cala

ble

iso

tro

pic

dy

na

mic

al

core

s

–d

yn

am

ic l

oa

d b

ala

nci

ng

ca

pa

bil

itie

s

•A

lte

rna

tive

ve

rtic

al

dis

cre

tiza

tio

ns

•Im

pli

cit

or

larg

e t

ime

ste

p d

iscr

eti

zati

on

s

•R

ob

ust

gri

d r

em

ap

pin

g a

lgo

rith

ms

•A

ssim

ila

tio

n m

eth

od

olo

gie

s

–O

cea

n,

carb

on

cyc

le,

–a

djo

ints

, e

nse

mb

le K

alm

an

fil

ters

, …

•N

ee

d t

o a

dd

ress

mu

ltis

cale

sci

en

ce

–V

ari

ab

le r

eso

luti

on

re

fin

em

en

ts

–U

nif

orm

hig

h-r

eso

luti

on

•E

rro

r e

stim

ati

on

te

chn

iqu

es

•M

ult

isca

le d

ata

co

mp

ress

ion

(e

.g.,

wa

vele

t te

chn

iqu

es)

Page 22: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Production

Qu

ali

ty S

oft

wa

re

•H

igh

-pe

rfo

rma

nce

pa

rall

el

I/O

sta

nd

ard

•F

utu

re p

rog

ram

min

g m

od

els

–M

PI/

Op

en

MP

re

pla

cem

en

ts

–M

eth

od

olo

gie

s a

nd

to

ols

re

qu

ire

d t

o e

xplo

it h

igh

ly p

ara

lle

l a

rch

ite

ctu

res

•p

erf

orm

an

ce a

na

lysi

s to

ols

•lib

rari

es

–To

ols

fo

r re

fact

ori

ng

ap

pli

cati

on

co

de

s

–La

ng

ua

ge

im

pro

vem

en

ts

•C

om

po

ne

nti

zati

on

•S

cala

ble

an

d d

istr

ibu

ted

an

aly

sis

soft

wa

re

•M

ath

an

d a

pp

lica

tio

n f

ram

ew

ork

s

•B

en

efi

ts t

o p

art

ne

rsh

ips

in d

eve

lop

me

nt

of

soft

wa

re e

nvi

ron

me

nt

–D

OE

ne

ed

s to

exe

rcis

e m

ore

co

ntr

ol

of

the

bro

ad

er

act

ivit

y

–S

ub

sta

nti

al

inve

stm

en

t in

so

ftw

are

fo

r cu

rre

nt

an

d f

utu

re m

ach

ine

s a

pri

ori

ty

Page 23: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Faci

liti

es

•C

ap

aci

ty a

t th

e o

rde

r 1

00

0 p

roce

sso

r le

vel

is i

na

de

qu

ate

–A

vail

ab

ilit

y o

f m

ach

ine

s a

nd

all

oca

tio

n s

tra

teg

ies

•D

ata

ma

na

ge

me

nt,

mig

rati

on

an

d a

na

lysi

s

–S

uit

ab

le s

tora

ge

hie

rarc

hy,

ba

nd

wid

th,

sup

po

rt f

or

wo

rkfl

ow

an

d a

na

lysi

s

–P

rov

isio

n f

or

de

ali

ng

wit

h b

oth

mo

de

l a

nd

ob

serv

ati

on

all

y g

en

era

ted

da

ta

•A

llo

cati

on

pro

cess

(IN

CIT

E)

ma

y b

e s

ub

op

tim

al

–P

rog

ram

ma

tic

de

live

rab

les

sub

ject

to

2n

dp

rop

osa

l p

roce

ss

–Im

pro

ved

pa

rtn

ers

hip

be

twe

en

OA

SC

R a

nd

oth

er

off

ice

s in

SC

•F

utu

re r

eq

uir

em

en

ts w

ill

incr

ea

se b

oth

ca

pa

city

& c

ap

ab

ilit

y r

eq

uir

em

en

ts

–S

om

e o

f th

ese

sci

en

tifi

c in

itia

tive

s a

re r

ea

dy

to

exp

loit

en

ha

nce

d r

eso

urc

es

•R

eso

urc

e a

llo

cati

on

–O

pti

ma

lly

ma

na

gin

g f

aci

lity

fo

r p

rod

uct

ion

, h

igh

-th

rou

gh

pu

t d

eb

ug

, a

nd

an

aly

sis

wo

rk

•P

rio

rity

to

evo

lve

to

wa

rd s

tab

le o

pe

rati

ng

en

viro

nm

en

t

–Fa

cili

tate

en

vir

on

me

nt

for

scie

nti

fic

pro

du

ctiv

ity

Page 24: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Wis

h l

ist

•S

om

eo

ne

to

ow

n p

ara

lle

l I/

O,

pN

etC

DF,

•Fa

st (

pa

rall

el)

alg

ori

thm

pro

toty

pin

g

–E

g.

Ma

tla

b -

> H

PC

la

ng

ua

ge

->

HP

C s

im -

>a

na

lysi

s

•C

od

e a

na

lysi

s o

f m

em

ory

acc

ess

, re

stru

ctu

rin

g

too

ls,

pre

fetc

h d

ire

ctiv

es

•S

cre

am

ing

lib

rari

es

-d

em

on

stra

tio

ns

of

ho

w

to s

cale

to

10

M c

ore

s

•To

ols

an

d p

oli

cie

s to

en

ha

nce

de

velo

pm

en

t

Page 25: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Wis

h l

ist

•W

ork

on

ma

the

ma

tica

l fo

rmu

lati

on

s

–H

am

ilto

nia

n (

Ho

lm,

Sa

lmo

n,

Fra

nk

, R

eic

h)

–K

ine

tic

(Pe

rth

am

e)

–A

ne

last

ic v

ect

or

vort

icit

y m

eth

od

(Ju

ng

)

•W

ork

on

alg

ori

thm

s

–A

MR

fo

r th

e a

tmo

sph

ere

–C

urv

ele

ts,

mu

lti-

wa

vele

ts

–P

ara

lle

l in

tim

e i

nte

gra

tio

n

–N

ew

ass

imil

ati

on

te

chn

iqu

es

for

oce

an

an

d c

arb

on

Page 26: Climate - High Risk · Data management, migration and analysis –Suitable storage hierarchy, bandwidth, support for workflow and analysis – Provision for dealing with both model

Lun

ati

c F

rin

ge

??

•O

pe

rati

on

co

un

ts d

on

’t m

att

er

•D

ata

flo

w l

an

gu

ag

es

•S

pe

cia

l p

roce

sso

rs

•Fa

ult

de

tect

ion

an

d r

eco

very

•T

he

wo

rld

is

fla

t: c

lou

d c

om

pu

tin

g

•B

ack

to

th

e d

esk

top

… d

espi

te r

ecen

t fro

m m

e pr

edic

ated

ca

tast

roph

ical

ly c

limat

e di

sast

ers

and

resu

lting

glo

bal f

inan

cial

cris

es y

ou

still

igno

re m

y be

llow

ing

scie

ntifi

c pr

opos

al to

pre

vent

the

clim

ate

chan

ges.

Inve

stm

ents

in s

cien

tific

res

earc

hes

are

mor

e ch

eape

r and

per

spec

tive

than

bill

ions

pay

men

ts fo

r th

e ab

sent

of

any

sui

tabl

e so

lutio

ns in

ene

rgy

-cl

imat

e ar

ea th

at I

actu

ally

pro

pose

d yo

u. S

urel

y th

is d

isas

ters

and

soc

ial

cris

es c

ome

agai

n an

d ag

ain.

Thi

nk

ones

mor

e ab

out i

t if

you

wan

t sur

vive

on

this

pla

net.