climate forecasting unit climate of the month january-february 2012 melanie davis
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Forecasting Unit
Climate of the Month
January-February 2012
Melanie Davis
Climate Forecasting Unit
Outline
1) North Atlantic/European region
2) Arctic Ocean
3) Pacific/North American region
4) Tropical Pacific
Climate Forecasting Unit
Outline
1) North Atlantic/European region
2) Arctic Ocean
3) Pacific/North American region
4) Tropical Pacific
Climate Forecasting Unit
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Positive phase Negative phase
Source : http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/
Climate Forecasting Unit
Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_ensm.shtml
Observed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index
Based on monthly 500hPa height anomaly fields for the three-month period centered on each month during January 1950 -
December 2000.
+'ve phase
Climate Forecasting Unit
February 2012
500hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly From NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology
Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
January 2012
NAO +'ve phase = strong subtropical high pressure, strong Icelandic low pressure
NAO -'ve phase = weak subtropical high pressure, weak Icelandic low pressure
Climate Forecasting Unit
Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology
January 2012 February 2012
Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
mm/daymm/day
NAO +'ve phase = wet winter in Europe, wet in USA, dry in N.Canada/Greenland
NAO -'ve phase = moist air in Med., drier in N. Europe, snow in E. USA
Climate Forecasting Unit
Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology
January 2012 February 2012
Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
mm/daymm/day
Climate Forecasting Unit
Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology
January 2012 February 2012
Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/°C °C
NAO +'ve phase = warm winter in Europe, mild in USA, cold in N.Canada/Greenland
NAO -'ve phase = moist air in Med., cold in N. Europe, cold in E. USA, mild Greenland
Climate Forecasting Unit
Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology
January 2012 February 2012
Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
°C °C
Climate Forecasting Unit
Outline
1) North Atlantic/European region
2) Arctic Ocean
3) Pacific/North American region
4) Tropical Pacific
Climate Forecasting Unit
January 2012 February 2012
500hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology
Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
NAO +'ve phase = strong subtropical high pressure, strong Icelandic low pressure
NAO -'ve phase = weak subtropical high pressure, weak Icelandic low pressure
Climate Forecasting Unit
January 2012 February 2012°C
Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1968-1996 climatology
NAO +'ve phase = warm winter in Europe, mild in USA, cold in N.Canada/Greenland
NAO -'ve phase = moist air in Med., cold in N. Europe, cold in E. USA, mild Greenland
Climate Forecasting Unit
Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (from NSIDC)
Dec. 2011
Climate Forecasting Unit
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (from NSIDC)
Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html
Jan. 2012
Climate Forecasting Unit
Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html
Arctic Sea Ice Extent (from NSIDC)
Feb. 2012
Climate Forecasting Unit
Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html
Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies (from NSIDC)
Dec. 2011
Climate Forecasting Unit
Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html
Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies (from NSIDC)
Jan. 2012
Climate Forecasting Unit
Source : http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/index.html
Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Anomalies (from NSIDC)
Feb. 2012
Climate Forecasting Unit
Outline
1) North Atlantic/European region
2) Arctic Ocean
3) Pacific/North American region
4) Tropical Pacific
Climate Forecasting Unit
Source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index.html
Based on monthly 500hPa height anomaly fields for the three-month period centered on each month during January 1950 -
December 2000.
Observed Pacific North American (PNA) Index
+ve phase
+ve,-ve phase
Climate Forecasting Unit
500hPa Geopotential Height Anomaly From NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology
Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
February 2012January 2012
PNA +ve phase = above normal pressure W.USA, below normal pressure E.USA
PNA -ve phase = below normal pressure W.USA, above normal pressure E.USA
Climate Forecasting Unit
Surface Air Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology
Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
°C °C
February 2012January 2012
PNA +ve phase = above av. temp. W.USA/Canada, below av. temp. S.Central/E.USA
PNA -ve phase = below av. temp. W.USA, above av. temp. E.USA
Climate Forecasting Unit
Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
mm/day mm/day
Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology
February 2012January 2012
PNA +ve phase = above normal ppt. Gulf Alaska to Pacific NW.USA, below normal ppt. Upper Mid-W. USA
PNA -ve phase = opposite ?
Climate Forecasting Unit
Outline
1) North Atlantic/European region
2) Arctic Ocean
3) Pacific/North American region
4) Tropical Pacific
Climate Forecasting Unit
Source : http://www.prh.noaa.gov/peac/peu/2011_2nd/soi.ph
.
Climate Forecasting Unit
Source : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/index3.shtml
Climate Forecasting Unit
January 2012
Source : http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/index.shtml
KK K
Surface Surface Temperature Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology
February 2012
Climate Forecasting Unit
Source : http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl/
mm/day mm/day
Surface Precipitation Rate Anomaly from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis % 1981-2010 climatology
February 2012January 2012
Climate Forecasting Unit
What do we expect from the ENSO cycle?
Source : http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=945&mode=2
Climate Forecasting Unit
Summary NAO: weak, but getting more positive towards Feb 2012
Warmer Artic Ocean, Artic sea ice depletion
PNA: slightly positive, stronger in Feb 2012
La Niña prevails and forecasted to continue a few months