Climate Change, Tipping Points, Climate Change, Tipping Points, and the Mediaand the Media

Erika EngelhauptErika EngelhauptEnvironmental Science and TechnologyEnvironmental Science and Technology

Arctic Forum 2008Arctic Forum 2008

Kyoto ProtocolIPCC TAR

Katrina

UN Development Program2007/08 Report

Gore movie

“skeptics”

Has media coverage reached a Has media coverage reached a tipping point?tipping point?

How Industry May Change Climate

The New York Times

The amount of carbon dioxide in the air will double by the year 2080 and raise the temperature an average of at least 4 per cent.

Will this picture save the world?Telegraph March 4, 2007

Scientists: Most Polar Bears Dead By 2050CBS News Sept 7, 2007

“Drowning polar bears may provide the human 'tipping point' to tackle climate change”

Changing coverageChanging coverage

US study• ‘balanced’ reporting (roughly equal coverage

to both sides) was high in 2003-04, declined was high in 2003-04, declined 2005-062005-06

UK study• Content analysis found tabloids did not

improve accuracy from 2000-2006; UK and US “prestige press” did

• “interviews indicate that inaccurate reporting may be linked to the lack of specialist journalists in the tabloid press.”

Boykoff, Area 2007Boykoff, Env. Res. Letters 2008

Journalistic NormsJournalistic Norms

NoveltyNovelty BalanceBalance AuthorityAuthority PersonalizationPersonalization DramatizationDramatization

Boykoff and Boykoff 2007

Culture clash?

Not educators or translators Different peer review

Americans naming climate change as the world’s biggest environmental problem jumped from 16% in 2006 to 33% in 2007.

(Washington Post/Time/ABC/Stanford University)

82% of Americans believe global warming exists, up 5 points from 2005.(Fox News, February 2007)

Tipping PointsTipping Points

What Are Tipping Points?What Are Tipping Points? James Hansen:James Hansen: a point where calamitous change becomes a point where calamitous change becomes

unavoidableunavoidable

Statisticians:Statisticians: a a bifurcationbifurcation in a dynamical system in a dynamical system

sea ice scientist :sea ice scientist : A A thresholdthreshold such that a rapid change is such that a rapid change is imminent and irreversible imminent and irreversible

sea level rise scientist :sea level rise scientist : A step A step changechange in climate, when the in climate, when the

climate system shifts to some climate system shifts to some new statenew state. (i.e. the melting of . (i.e. the melting of ice in glaciers and ice sheets) ice in glaciers and ice sheets)

scientist at policy NGO:scientist at policy NGO: an abrupt or irreversible an abrupt or irreversible changechange in in the internal dynamics in a system in response to an external the internal dynamics in a system in response to an external driver crossing a thresholddriver crossing a threshold

Policy:Policy: large shift in attitudes or political will large shift in attitudes or political will

Media:Media: big change? big change?

Senator James Inhofe (R-OK), 2007:“the man-made global warming fear machine crossed the ‘tipping point’ in 2007. I am convinced that future climate historians will look back at 2007 as the year the global warming fears began crumbling.”

Tipping PointsTipping Points

Debate on Climate Shifts to Issue of Irreparable ChangeSome Experts on Global Warming Foresee 'Tipping Point' When It Is Too Late to Act

Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post January 29, 2006; A1

Carbon Emissions: Catch them if you canCNN International - May 4, 2008

Many scientists believe the CO2 "tipping point" has been passed already. There is already too much C02 sitting in the atmosphere.

I never found the notion of "tipping points" to be a very useful contribution to public discourse. The concept is ill-defined and very prone to be misunderstood — as in: we've passed a tipping point so it's too late to do anything (might as well have a party).

-Ray Pierrehumbert on realclimate.org

What You Can DoWhat You Can Do

Your first challenge: define tipping pointsYour first challenge: define tipping points Prepare for interviewsPrepare for interviews Know your PIO-- help with press releasesKnow your PIO-- help with press releases Redirect reporter if neededRedirect reporter if needed Give reporters feedbackGive reporters feedback Encourage students interested in writingEncourage students interested in writing Do not give upDo not give up

UN Development Program2007/08 Report40 newspapers