Regional Technical Workshop on Application of Modelling Tools for Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment

8-9 September 2009, MRCS, Bangkok, Thailand------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Climate Change Studies: Climate Change Studies: Modelling for Scenarios Modelling for Scenarios

in Vietnamin Vietnam

Tran Dinh TrongTran Dinh TrongVietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and

EnvironmentEnvironment

OutlineOutline1. Introduction2.2. Overview on Climate Change Studies in Overview on Climate Change Studies in

VietnamVietnam2.1 Climate change status2.1 Climate change status2.2 Climate change studies2.2 Climate change studies

3.3. Climate Change ModellingClimate Change Modelling3.1 Methods for generating the climate change scenarios3.2 MRI/AGCM3.3 PRECIS3.4 MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3, Statistical Downscaling

4. Climate Change Scenario4. Climate Change Scenario4.1 Criteria for Choosing Vietnam climate change scenario4.2 Official scenario for Vietnam

LAOS

NORTH RE ION

CAMBODIA

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CHINA

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1. Introduction1. Introduction- Country position: Southeastern Asia, 8o27 to 23o23N and 102o08 to 109o30E

-Area: 330,990 km2

-The coastline length: 3,260 km

- Climate: Tropical monsoon suffering from natural disasters such as typhoons, floods,drought,… which affected regularly to socio-economic development

-- Climatic Regions: 7Climatic Regions: 7

OutlineOutline1. Introduction2.2. Overview on Climate Change Studies in Overview on Climate Change Studies in

VietnamVietnam2.1 Climate change Status2.1 Climate change Status2.2 Climate change studies2.2 Climate change studies

3.3. Climate Change ModellingClimate Change Modelling3.1 Methods for generating the climate change scenarios3.2 MRI/AGCM3.3 PRECIS3.4 MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3, Statistical Downscaling

4. Climate change Scenario4. Climate change Scenario4.1 Criteria for Choosing Vietnam climate change scenario4.2 Official scenario for Vietnam

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2.1 Climate change Status:2.1 Climate change Status:

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Increase in quantity and intensity of extreme-weather events (typhoon, flood, flash flood, drought, heavy rainfall);

Hanoi City living with floods ! (November 2008)

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Vti Nani

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Vietnam Initial National Communication (INC) to the UNFCCC in 2003: identified water resources, coastal areas, agriculture, aquaculture, forestry, energy, transport and public health as the most vulnerable to climate change

Vietnam Second National Communication (SNC):emphasizes adaptation and emphasizes adaptation and provides guidance to promote provides guidance to promote Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) measures in Viet Nammeasures in Viet Nam

2.2 Climate change studies2.2 Climate change studies

MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES ANI) ENV IRONMENT

CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS, SEA LEVEL RISE FOR VIETNAM

Hanoi, 4 April 2009

Climate change, Climate change, sea level rise sea level rise scenarios for scenarios for VietnamVietnam is developed is developed basing on different basing on different emission scenarios: low emission scenarios: low (B1), medium (B2) and (B1), medium (B2) and high (A2, A1FI). high (A2, A1FI).

The Prime Minister approved the ationii1 Target Program

to respond to Climate change (YIP) on 2 [)eceniber 2008

(Decision Yo. l8/QD-TTg dated 2 r)eceniber 208);

Stritgk objettivs of the NTP

Io assess climate change's impacts Ofl sectors and regions in

specilic penods and

-To develop feasible action plans to effectively respond to

climate change in ensuring sustailltb Ic development of

Viet Yam. taking opportunities to develop towards a low-

carbon cc onoirmy, and jointing iiiternatioiial community's

eftrt of protecting climatic system:

NATIONAL TARGET PROGRAM TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE CHANGE

(Decision No.1 58/QD-TTg dated 2 December 2008) (Unoff UU(l 110 nIaiion 0/ I'Ie(lt(lflltSt I,1onJ

HANOI - DECEMBER. 200S

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Development of Climate Change Scenario Development of Climate Change Scenario for Vietnam and the Regionfor Vietnam and the Region

Funding: SEA START Implementing: IMHEN

+

CLIMATE CHANGE AND

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS ViehiOm

awnIng Jo hoe with cOma?. change of adapting 100 new reality

(A c000hywpor? c', aVrtyhicwr V Jit. hi &,Wechw,ge)

Preparedness for Disasters Related to Preparedness for Disasters Related to Climate ChangeClimate Change

Objective is to strengthen the Objective is to strengthen the most vulnerable people most vulnerable people communities in the disastercommunities in the disaster--prone areas to climate change prone areas to climate change and disasters to response and and disasters to response and adapt to these disasters.adapt to these disasters.

Funding: Netherlands Red Cross, Red Cross, Implementing: Vietnam Red Cross Participating: IMHEN

The Viet na m Red Cr o ss So c iet yThe Viet na m Red Cr o ss So c iet ySupported by The Netherlands Red CrossSupported by The Netherlands Red Cross

Preparedness for Disasters related to Climate ChangePreparedness for Disasters related to Climate Change

a ,4r.od.a4 .qo.5 UI ..6utq DoOtud

P.tTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRCFPiT

VIETNAM

NATIONAL STRATEGY STUDY

ON

CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM

FINAL REPORT

a&NOu 2USd

Vietnam National Strategy Study on Vietnam National Strategy Study on Clean Development MechanismClean Development Mechanism

Current Current CDMCDM policy status;policy status;GHG abatement potential in GHG abatement potential in Vietnam;Vietnam;CDM market opportunities for CDM market opportunities for Vietnam;Vietnam;Analysis of institutional setAnalysis of institutional set--up and up and institutional requirements;institutional requirements;Implementing CDM: criteria and Implementing CDM: criteria and approval processes;approval processes;Realisation of CDM opportunities in Realisation of CDM opportunities in Vietnam;Vietnam;Summary of VietnamSummary of Vietnam’’s National s National CDM Strategy.CDM Strategy.

Funding: WB Implementing: IMHEN

Asia Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy

Viet Nam

Asian Developmont Bank Global Enviranmønt F5illty

United Nations Deyelomsnt Programme

Asia Least Asia Least -- Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS) ProjectStrategy (ALGAS) Project

Vietnam is one of the 12 Asian Vietnam is one of the 12 Asian Countries participating in this Countries participating in this UNDP/GEF/ADB project.UNDP/GEF/ADB project.Started in 1995 and completed in Started in 1995 and completed in 1997.1997.Aims to enhance and improve the Aims to enhance and improve the national capacitynational capacity of the participating of the participating countries.countries.Conducting Conducting GHG InventoryGHG Inventory based on based on the IPCC Guidelines for the year 1993.the IPCC Guidelines for the year 1993.Assessing Assessing mitigationmitigation options. options. Developing the Developing the leastleast--costcost GHG GHG abatement strategy and action plan.abatement strategy and action plan.

Funding: UNDP/GEF/ADBUNDP/GEF/ADB Implementing: IMHEN

CLIMATE CHANGE IN ASIA:

VIET NAM

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

Climate Change in Asia: Vietnam.Climate Change in Asia: Vietnam.

A regional study on Global Environment IssueA regional study on Global Environment Issuefunded by ADB.funded by ADB.Project started in 1992, Report was published Project started in 1992, Report was published by ADB in 1994. by ADB in 1994. Scope includes Scope includes GHG emission inventoryGHG emission inventorybased on 1990 data. based on 1990 data. Provided Provided mitigation optionsmitigation options for energy and for energy and industrial, building, transportation, agricultural, industrial, building, transportation, agricultural, forestry and land use sectors. forestry and land use sectors. Assessment of the impactsAssessment of the impacts on agriculture, on agriculture, monsoon and water resources, coastal zone, monsoon and water resources, coastal zone, forestry, human health, energy system, forestry, human health, energy system, transport and infrastructure. transport and infrastructure. Policy optionsPolicy options to cope with climate change for to cope with climate change for agriculture, water resources, coastal agriculture, water resources, coastal protection, forestry, human health and natural protection, forestry, human health and natural disasters were discussed. disasters were discussed.

Funding: ADB Implementing: IMHEN

OutlineOutline1. Introduction2. Overview on Climate Change Studies in 2. Overview on Climate Change Studies in

VietnamVietnam2.1 Climate change Status2.1 Climate change Status2.2 Climate change studies2.2 Climate change studies

3. Climate Change 3. Climate Change ModellingModelling3.1 Methods for generating the climate change scenarios3.2 MRI/AGCM3.3 PRECIS3.4 MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3, Statistical Downscaling

4. Climate change Scenario4. Climate change Scenario4.1 Criteria for Choosing Vietnam climate change scenario4.2 Official scenario for Vietnam

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3.1 How to generate the regional climate change scenarios3.1 How to generate the regional climate change scenarios

Statistical Downscaling: Perfect Prognosis (PP), Model Output Statistics (MOS)

Xác diflh ham chuyén (Transfer function)

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The Edith Simulator (ES), a super-computer, began operation in March 2002. The ES is one of the three essential

elements for projecting or predicting global change according to recommendations made In 1996 by an expert cominutlee of the Science and Technology Agency (now merged into MEXT), the other two being procesn studies

by modeling and observation systems.

The ES was ranked hrst In the world among the Top 500' supercomputers from 2002 to 2004, during which time substantial experiments on climate change projection were conducted. The research results contributed to the IPCC's AR4.The fastest computation made bythe ES was 35.86 Teraflops (102 calculations per second). Even today, the ES might be the fastest supercomputeramong those mainly available forEarth sciences.

The ES allowed the Kyosel Project to make substantial contributions to the IPCC5 AR4. using this supercomputer system, the KAKUSHIN Program is expected to make inmpomtaut contributions to the 1PCCs Fifth Assessnient Report (AR5I.

10

3.2 MRI/AGCM 3.2 MRI/AGCM

MRI/AGCM MRI/AGCM →→Japan Japan Meteorology Research InstituteMeteorology Research Institute--Atmospheric Global Circulation Model:Atmospheric Global Circulation Model:-- Resolutions: 20 km, 60 km, 120 km, 180kmResolutions: 20 km, 60 km, 120 km, 180km-- Scenario: A1BScenario: A1B-- Computer: Computer: -- Earth Simulator Earth Simulator ––ESES-- MRIMRI--AGCM AGCM →→IPCC AR4 (2007)IPCC AR4 (2007)-- MRIMRI--AGCM AGCM →→IPCC AR5 (2014)IPCC AR5 (2014)

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File Etht Run View SCEN6EN

Molel for the Assessment of

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Concept and Scientific Programming: T.M.L. Wigley, S.C.[I. Raper

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User ln*erIace: M. Salmon. S. McGinnis

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74 SCENGEN 5.3 12

SCENGEN A Global and Regional Climate Change Scenario Generator

Concept nd Scientific Projrmminj: T.M.L Wkjley

Design: T.M.L. Wigley. M. Hulme. M. Salmon. S. McGinnis

User Inteiface: S. McGinnis. M. Salmon

Dt Set Development: C. Doutriaux. ft Knutti. S. Scherrer

Other Contributeis: 0. Brown, 1. Jiang. P.D. Jones, M. New. B.D. Santer

Development Suppo[te(1 bj The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Version 5.3. May 2008

NCAR

OK

Sflt Comu1thghc.

3.4 MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3, Statistical Downscaling3.4 MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3, Statistical DownscalingMAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3/2007: already be updated AR4 MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3/2007: already be updated AR4

Advantages than Advantages than Magicc/ScengenMagicc/Scengen 4.1:4.1:-- Resolution 2,5Resolution 2,5oox2,5x2,5oo

-- AOGCMsAOGCMs database: more and flexible for database: more and flexible for ScengenScengen

OutlineOutline1. Introduction2. Overview on Climate Change Studies in 2. Overview on Climate Change Studies in

VietnamVietnam2.1 Climate change Status2.1 Climate change Status2.2 Climate change studies2.2 Climate change studies

3. Climate Change 3. Climate Change ModellingModelling3.1 Methods for generating the climate change scenarios3.2 MRI/AGCM3.3 PRECIS3.4 MAGICC/SCENGEN 5.3, Statistical Downscaling

4. Climate change Scenario4. Climate change Scenario4.1 Criteria for Choosing Vietnam climate change scenario4.2 Official scenario for Vietnam

4.1 Criteria for Choosing Vietnam climate change 4.1 Criteria for Choosing Vietnam climate change scenarioscenario

1)1) Plausibility of global climate change scenariosPlausibility of global climate change scenarios2)2) Level of details of climate change scenarios: climatic Level of details of climate change scenarios: climatic

regionsregions3)3) Inheritability: Vietnam INC, SNCInheritability: Vietnam INC, SNC4)4) UpUp--toto--date: AR4date: AR4--200720075)5) Local appropriateness: agreement with the local Local appropriateness: agreement with the local

evolutionsevolutions6)6) Completeness of scenarios: can include high, medium, Completeness of scenarios: can include high, medium,

low scenarios low scenarios 7)7) Possibility of self updating.Possibility of self updating.

4.2 Official scenario for Vietnam4.2 Official scenario for Vietnam

a) a) TemperatureTemperature::TTwinterwinter increase > increase > TTsummersummer IncreaseIncrease

TTNorthernNorthern increase > increase > TTSouthernSouthern IncreaseIncrease

B! (Aundic Reaion

-

I)edes ni the 21 Ceiituiv 2020 2030 2040 2060 2070 20II' 20)1' 2100

Nort1iWt CHI 07 11 12 14 1. 1r l 1,7

NorthlEart CH 07 10 1 14 1, 1 1 1.1

NorthDe1tt 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1. 1.5 1. 1.6

North Central 1 6 0 8 11 1 4 1.6 1. I I 1 9

SouthOentral u4 0.6 u;; u.9 1.0 1,2 1.2 1.2 1.2

CentialHighLnds 0.3 0.5 0± 0.8 0.9 1.(' 1.) 1.1 1.1

South 04 06 08 10 11 1.3 i 14 14

A2

(Aun7dlc Reaion -

I)edes ni the 21 Centuiv 2020 2030 2040 0'1 2060 2070 2081' 2090 2100

North Wt 0 0 8 1 '. 1 3 1.7 2.0 2.4 2 3.3

North East O 07 10 13 1.6 1.9 2H 2 3.2

North De1tt 0.5 0.7 1.0 1 3 1.6 1.8 2.3 2. 3.1

North Central '6 0 9 1 1 1.8 2.2 2, - 1 3.6

South Central 0.4 0.5 0.5 1 U 1.2 1.5 IH .1 2.4

CentialHighLnds 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1. 1.5 1.8 2.1

South 04 06 08 10 1.3 1.6 1 2=; 2.6

B2

(1undic Reaion -

I)edes ni the 21 Ceiituiv 2020 2030 2040 0'1 2060 2070 2081] 2091' 2100

Nort1iWt C' 07 11 13 1.6 1.9 2.1 24 2.6

NorthlEart C' 07 10 12 1.6 1.8 2.1 2 25 North De1tt 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.'II 2.2 2.4

North Central I 0 8 11 1 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.8

SouthOentral U4 0.5 u;; u.9 1.2 1.4 1. 1.8 1.9

CentialHighL.nds 0.3 0.5 OX 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6

South 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0

Annual Mean Temperature Changes (Annual Mean Temperature Changes (ooCC) relative to period from 1980) relative to period from 1980--1999 for Scenarios: B1, B2, A21999 for Scenarios: B1, B2, A2

b) b) Rainfall:Rainfall in dry season can decrease in most Rainfall in dry season can decrease in most

climate zones, especially in Southern climate zones, especially in Southern climate zones. Rainfall in the rainy season climate zones. Rainfall in the rainy season and the total annual rainfall can increase and the total annual rainfall can increase in all climate zones.in all climate zones.

ZOUS pI'1Od 2020 22L' 214ü 2051' 2060 20711 2080 2090 2!u[I

11 1.6 23 2.9 12 3,5 16 3.7 3.7

North West Mar-May -1.1 -1.6 -2.3 -2.8 -3.0 -3.4 -3.6 -3.7 -3.7

Jun-Aug 2.4 3.5 4.8 5.9 6.7 7.9 7.6 7.8 7.8

Sep-Nov 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.2 1,3 1.4 1.4 1.4

Dec-Feb 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5

Mr-May -0.9 -1.3 -1.8 -2.2 -2.4 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9 -2.9 North East

Jun-Aug 2.5 3.7 5.1 6.3 7.1 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.3

Sep-Nov I'S 1.9 12 1.5 17 1.9 1 9 2.12 2 U

Dec-Fr1' 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8

Mr-May -1.3 -2.2' -2.7 -3.4 -3.8 -4.1 -4.3 4.5 -4.5

North Delta j 2.9 4.4 6.1 7.5 8.5 9.2 9.7 9.9 9.9

Sep-Nov 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.7 2. 3.1 3.5 3.1

ri:-F1:i Cl 6 11.9 12 1.5 1 7 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0

II -I4ay -1.9 -2.9 -4 9 -4.9 -5.6 -6.12 -6.3 -6.5 -6.5 North

Central Jun-Aug 2.9 4.2 5.9 7.2 8.2 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.5

Sep-Nov 1.7 2.5 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.5 6.7 5.6

Bi (hun te 1\ Ioiitli [)ec des in the 2 J C itiiry

B2

Chin ate \1oiit}i I)e ades iii tile 21 Ceiitiiiv zones pe110 2020 203J 2040 050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

I'-Feb 1 1 I.f 2.3 16 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.6 North Mar-May -1.1 -1.6 -2.3 -2,9 -3.5 -4.1 -4.6 -5.2 -5.6 West

Jun-Aug 2.4 3.5 4.8 6.2 7.6 8.8 10.0 11.0 11.9

Sep-Nov 0.4 'ILH 0.9 1.1 14 1. 1.8 2.0 2.2

T'i:-Feb 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.5 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.5

-3,9

3,

-4,4 Mar-i1a7 -0.9 -1.3 -1.8 -2.3 -2.8 -3.3 -3.7 North East

Jun-Aug 2.5 3.7 5.1 6.6 8.1 9.4 10.6 11.7 12.7

Sep-Nov 0.6 0.5 1 2 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0

Dec-Feb 0.9 Is 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.3

Mar-May -1.3 -2.0 -2.7 -3.6 43 -5.0 -5.7 -6.2 -6.8

Jun-Aug 2.9 4.4 6.1 7.9 9.6 11.1 12.6 13,915.1 Sep-Nov 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.8 ]1'ri:-Feb 0.6 0.1' 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0

Mar-May -1.9 -2.9 -4.0 -5.2 -6.3 -7.3 -8.3 -9.1 -9.9

Jun-Aug 2.9 4.2 5.9 7.6 9.3 10.8 12.2 13.4 14.6

1.7 2.5 3.5 4.5 54 6.1: 7.1 7.8 .5

Lec-Feb -2.0 -2.5 -4.2 -5.4 -0.5 -7.6 -8.6 -9.5 -10.2 South Mar-May -2.8 41 -5.7 -7.4 -9.0 -10.5 -11.9 -13.1 -14.2

A2

2040

2.2

-2.1

4.6

0.8

14

-1.7

4,9

1.2

1.6

-2.6

5.8

1.9

'11

-3.3

5.6

3.3

-s Ii:

-5,5

1.5

4.6

-5.7

I) e a des in the 21 C en tiny 1055 2060 2071' 2080 90 2100

2.9 3.6 4.4 5.3 6.2 7.2

-2.8 -3.5 -4.3 -5.2 -6.1 -7.1

5.9 7.5 9.3 11.0 12.2 15.1

11 14 17 2.1 2.4 2.8

1.9 2.4 3.111 3.5 4.2 4.9

-2.2 -2.8 -3.4 41 -4.9 -5.6

6.3 7.9 9.8 11.8 13.7 16.1

1.5 1.9 2.4 2.8 3,3 3.8

2.0 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.7 5.5

-3.4 43 -5.3 -6.3 .74 -8.6

7.5 9.4 11.7 14.0 16.3 19.1

2.4 3.0 3.6 4.5 5.3 6.1

1.5 1 9 2.4 2.8 3.4 3.8

-4.9 -6.2 -7.7 -9.2 -10.9 -12.6

7.3 9.1 11.3 13.6 15.9 18.5

4.3 14 i 7.9 9.4 10.8

-5.3 -:.3 -8.0 -9.6 -10.5 -13.0

-7.1 -8.9 -11.0 -13.2 -15.6 -18.1

1.9 2.5 3.1 3.7 4.3 5.0

6.1 7.6 9.1: 11.3 13.3 15.3

-7.4 -9.2 -11.5 -13.8 -15.7 -18.5

Chin ate zones

1don th peiios 2020 2031.'

f'-Feb 1.2 17 North Mar-May -1.2 -1.6 West

Jun-Aug 2.5 3.5

Sep-Nov 0.5

T'ri: -Feb 0.8 1.1

Mar-May -0.9 -1,3 North East

Jii n-Aug 2.7 37

Sep-Nov 0.5

Dec-Feb 0.9 1: Mr -ilay -1.4 -2.0

North Delta Jun-Aug 3.1 41

Sep-Nov 1.0 1.4

]1'': -Feb 0.6 rh.

Mar-May -2.1 -2.9 North Centr d

Ju n-Aug 3.0 4.6

Sep-Nov 15 2.1

I' -c-Feb -2.2 3i.i

South Mr -i1a -3.0 -4.2 Centrd

Jii n-Aug 0.8 1.2

Sep-Nov 2.5 3.5

D cc-Feb -3.1 44

Seasonal Seasonal Rainfall changeRainfall changess (%) in Vietnam climate zones relative to the (%) in Vietnam climate zones relative to the period of 1980period of 1980--1999, 1999, forfor scenarioscenarios: B1, s: B1, B2B2, A2, A2

B!

Chinitie Reioii -

I)e ades in the 21 (I1enttii v

2u20 2030 2040 200 2060 200 2080 2090 2100

Noi'th West 1 4 2.1 3.0 3 6 4.1 4 4 4 6 4.8 4.8 NiiithEast 14 2.1 30 36 4.1 4 4.7 48 4.8 Npith I:elta 1.6 2.3 3.2 3.9 4.5 48 5.1 5.2 5.2 Noith Cential 1 2.2 3.1 38 43 47 4.9 U .O

South Ceiitial 0 7 1 0 1.3 1 6 1.8 2 0 2 1 2.2 2.2 Central Highlands 0 3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0 - 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 South 0 3 0 4 0.6 0.7 0 8 0.9 1 0 1,0 1 iS)

B2

C1rniitic Region Decades in the 2.1 Century

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

North West 1.4 2.1 3.0 3.8 4.6 5.4 6.1 6.T 7.4

North East 1.4 2.1 3.0 3.8 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.8 7.3

North Delta. 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.1 5.0 5.9 6.6 7.3 7.9

North Centra.l 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.0 4.9 5.7 6.4 7.1 7.7 South Centra.! 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2

efltI11 High1and

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4

South 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5

A2

Chin at Reioii I)eades ill the 21 (Z1entiuv

- 2u20 2030 2040 200 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

North West 1.6 2.1 2.8 3.7 4.5 5.6 6.8 8.0' 9.3

1. 22 28 28 46 5 68 8.0 93 Noith Lit- I 6 2 3 3.0 38 5 (J 6 1 7.4 8.7 10.1

Noi th C enti al 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.7 4.8 5.9 1.1 8.4 9.7

South CetraI 0.7 10 1 2 1.7 2 1 2 5 30 3.6 4.1

Centi ai Hih1aiids 0 3 'II 4 0.5 0.7 I) 9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 South 0.3 04 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9

Annual Rainfall Changes (%) relative to period of 1980Annual Rainfall Changes (%) relative to period of 1980--19991999for scenarios: B1, B2, A2for scenarios: B1, B2, A2

I}Ies i t1 21 (et ry

2020 2030 2040 2000 2060 2070 2010 2090 2199

Lv rmiior Scenario (El)

I I 17 23 20 35 42 50 57 65

Medium emiaaion

scenario B2)

12 17 23 30 37 46 54 64

High emission

scenario (AIFI)

12 17 24 33 44 57 71 26 199

C) C) Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise::Sea Level Rise (cm) relative to period of 1980 Sea Level Rise (cm) relative to period of 1980 –– 19991999

Acknowledgment:Acknowledgment:IMHEN, IMHEN, MoNREMoNRE, Tran , Tran ThucThuc, Nguyen Van , Nguyen Van ThangThang, Tran Hong Thai, Hoang , Tran Hong Thai, Hoang DucDucCuongCuong, Le Thanh Sang, Nguyen , Le Thanh Sang, Nguyen MongMong CuongCuong..

Contact: Contact: trongkh@vkttv.edu.vntrongkh@vkttv.edu.vn

Thanks for your attention!Thanks for your attention!