Climate Change in Ann Arbor Daniel Brown, Research Associate, GLISA

What does GLISA do?

• GLISA is an information network hub for integrated climate science

• Connects practitioners and scientists

glisa.msu.edu

Global Trends and Regional Trends

Global Trends are more certain than regional trends. Natural variability plays a larger role at the regional scale. Local changes in land use can often alter the severity of climate change impacts.

Observed and Projected Global Temperature

3.2°F

NASA, based on IPCC

6.5°F

3.2°F

Adaptation timeframe

Observed Michigan Temperature

Changes in Average Temperature (°F)

from 1951-1980 to 1981-2010

Annual 0.9

Winter 1.9

Spring 1.1

Summer 0.5

Fall -0.1

Southeast Michigan Temperature

Changes in Mean Temperature (°F)

from 1951-1980 to 1981-2010

Annual 0.6

Winter 1.4

Spring 1.0

Summer 0.3

Fall -0.1

Observed Ann Arbor Temperature

Changes in Mean Temperature (°F)

from 1951-1980 to 1981-2010

Annual 0.3

Winter 1.0

Spring 0.4

Summer 0.0

Fall -0.3

The Great Lakes are Warming

• Lake Superior is warming twice as fast as nearby air.

• Winter ice cover is decreasing.

• Lake Superior could have little to no open-lake ice cover during a typical winter within the next 30 years.

NASA

Average Great Lakes ice coverage declined 71% percent from 1973 to 2010

AMS, 2011

Austin and Colman, 2007

Future Midwest Temperature

~12°F ~9°F

~5°F ~6°F

High Emissions Scenario

Low Emissions Scenario

Modified from Hayhoe et al, 2010

More Projected Hot Days

Increase in Days > 95°F

Increase in Consecutive Days

> 95°F

2041-2070

Kunkel (2011)

Plant Hardiness Zones

-30 to -20 ºF

-40 to -30 ºF

-20 to -10 ºF

1990

Average Extreme Minimum Temperatures

-20 to -10 ºF

-5 to -10 ºF

-30 to -20 ºF

-40 to -30 ºF

2006

Projected Shifts in Forest Types

USGCRP (2009)

Maple-Beech-Birch Oak-Hickory

Longer Midwestern Growing Season

Earlier last winter frost in spring

Date of first winter frost is

often unchanged

Growing season longer by

~1-2 weeks

140

150

160

170

180

190

1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000

Leng

th o

f Gro

win

g Se

ason

(day

s)

Based on data from the National Climatic Data Center for the cooperative observer network and updated from Kunkel et al. (2004)

Shorter Winters Across the Region

Earlier last winter frost in spring

Later first winter frost in autumn

Future growing season longer by

~1-2 months Wubbles & Hayhoe (2004)

A Migrating Climate

The climate future generations experience will be fundamentally

different than the climate today.

By the end of this century, Michigan summers will feel more like current summers in Arkansas.

Courtesy UCS 2009, original work by Hayhoe et al.

Southeast Michigan Precipitation

Changes in Total Precipitation (%)

from 1951-1980 to 1981-2010

Annual 11.9

Winter 12.7

Spring 2.6

Summer 5.3

Fall 28.3

Observed Ann Arbor Precipitation

Changes in Total Precipitation (%)

from 1951-1980 to 1981-2010

Annual 25.0

Winter 16.5

Spring 7.0

Summer 7.4

Fall 16.3

• Shorter winters have lead to more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow.

• Warmer surface temperatures have reduced snow accumulation.

• More lake effect precipitation events have increased snowfall in some areas.

Changing Winter Precipitation

Photo credits: Umich.edu, NASA, weather.com

Observed Snowfall

Snowfall has generally increased across the Northern Midwest, remained stable in the central latitudes, and has decreased in the southern areas.

More here

Less here

1961-1990 Average 1981-2010 Average

Observed Extreme Precipitation

The Intensity of the heaviest 1% of precipitation events increased by 31% in the Midwest and by 67% in the Northeast

from 1958 to 2007.

Ann Arbor: 42% Increase in the number of 1%

heaviest precipitation events

1981-2010 total compared to 1951-1980

Observed Extreme Precipitation

(Pryor et al., 2009)

The frequency of the heaviest 7-day precipitation events has increased.

The 10 wettest days in a year are delivering more precipitation.

Projected Precipitation

Kunkel (2011)

2041-2070 vs. 1971-2000

Winter +5 to 20%

Spring +0 to 20%

Fall +0 to 20%

Summer +10 to -10%

Annual +5 to 15%

Key Climate Changes for A2

• Warmer average temperatures

• Warmer low and nighttime temperatures

• More potential for extreme heat and drought

• Shorter winters

• More total precipitation

• More severe precipitation events

Tourism, Recreation, and Sense of Place

As the seasonality of temperature and precipitation changes. Economic, cultural, and natural systems will be forced to adapt.

Agriculture and Food Networks

• Increasing extreme events may challenge regional food networks.

• Some crops may benefit in the near future from more CO2 and longer growing seasons until negated by warmer temperatures.

• Perennial crops will be more vulnerable to the pace of climate change.

Heat and Health

Observed Change in Number of Harmful Heat Waves The number of heat waves that

pose risks to human health have increased in most major Midwestern cities. Increasing overnight, minimum temperatures have increased at a faster rate, limiting relief during hot periods.

UCS Heat in the Heartland, 2012

Potential Transportation Impacts

Freeze-thaw Expansion buckling

Flood Damage, washouts Jane-Finch.com

Freeze-thaw damage, near Marquette, MI Expansion buckling near Marshall, MI, 2011

Flooding and Stormwater

Observed increases in total precipitation and more frequent intense storms are already impacting the area.

Solutions

Permeable pavement • Reduces runoff • Reduces erosion

• Reduces risk to water quality

Urban tree canopies • Save energy: $50000/year • Stormwater: $50000/year • Scrub greenhouse gases

from the atmosphere

Ann Arbor is a flagship city for climate adaptation

Questions?