climate change impacts on great lakes fisheschangingclimate.osu.edu/webinars/ppt/stu-ludsin.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change Impacts onGreat Lakes Fishes
Stuart A. Ludsin
[email protected] Climate Webinar Series
The Ohio State University19 April 2011
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• Great Lakes Fish Community
• A Changing Climate
• Impacts on Fishes: The Expected
• Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
• Take Home Messages
Today’s Presentation
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• Diverse fish community− ~169 species− >25 exotics
• Cultural & ecological import
• Economic import– Recreational fishing– Commercial fisheries
Great Lakes Fish Community
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Great Lakes Recreational Fisheries• >1.75 million anglers annually• >22 million angler days annually• $1.75 billion
YP
Walleye
Chinook Lake trout
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Great Lakes Commercial Fisheries
WI
MI
OHPA
NY
INIL
ON
Species fishedMax. harvest (millions of pounds)
16
24
30
25
4.5
59.6
24.3
75.1
6.2
25
Herring
Whitefish
YP
Walleye
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• Fish production depends heavily on availability of quality habitat
Pro
duct
ion
Quality habitat
• Many factors affect habitat quality & quantity− Spawning habitat− Water clarity− Prey (food)− Dissolved oxygen− Temperature
• Each species has a unique set of habitat requirements that promote maximal growth, survival, & production
• Fish distribution & abundance vary as a function of habitat– Within an ecosystem (lake)– Across ecosystems (lakes)
Great Lakes Fish Community
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35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Pre
ferre
d te
mpe
ratu
re (º
C)
Habitat preferenceDeep/offshore Shallow/nearshore
Laketrout
Lakeherring
RainbowsmeltChinook
salmon
Burbot
Cohosalmon
WhitefishAlewife
Yellowperch
Walleye
Emeraldshiner Smallmouth
bass
Carp
Whiteperch
Gar
Bluegill
After Fig. 23, Kling et al (2003)
Whitecrappie
NorthernpikeRock
bass
Freshwaterdrum White
bassChannelcatfish
Rainbowtrout
Cold
Cool
Warm
Great Lakes Fish Community
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• Great Lakes Fish Community
• A Climate Changing
• Impacts on Fishes: The Expected
• Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
• Take Home Messages
Today’s Presentation
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1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010#
Day
s <
0o C (A
ir)
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170Toledo, OH1956-2007
p<0.0001R2=0.42
Climate Change Projections: Temperature
Farmer & Ludsin, unpublished data
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A Changing Climate• Lake Superior temperature increase
– Water has warmed 2-fold faster than air
Source: J. Austin, U of Minnesota, DuluthAustin and Coleman (2007)
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
1816141210
86
Air (0.06°C/yr)Water (0.12°C/yr)
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)
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• Significant increase in precipitation– Erie, Michigan, Ontario, and Huron
Climate Change Projections: Precipitation
1930 1950 1970 1990
1200
900
600
Pre
cipi
tatio
n(m
m/y
ear)
Year
Lake Ontario
McBean and Motiee (2008)
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• 7-day storm events– Increased frequency
(1931 – 1996)
Climate Change Projections: Precipitation
Kunkel et al (1999)
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• Shift in seasons– Longer growing season (earlier spring, later fall)– Shorter winter (by 33-88 days)
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
220
180
140Gro
win
g se
ason
(day
s)
Year
Kling et al. (2003)
High emissions scenarioLow emissions scenario
• Higher temperatures– Summer increase: 3 – 11ºC– Winter increase: 3 – 7ºC
A Changing Climate
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• Shift in seasonal rainfall– More rain in winter & spring– Less rain during the summer & fall
4
3
2
Ave.
pre
cipi
tatio
n(m
m/d
ay)
Kling et al. (2003)
High emissionsLow emissions
AJ F J JM AJ OS DN
5
• Increased frequency of storm events– Doubling of 24-hour & 7-day storms
A Changing Climate
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Current
By 2030(summer)
By 2095(summer)
By 2095(winter)
A Changing Climate
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• Great Lakes Fish Community
• A Climate Changing
• Impacts on Fishes: The Expected
• Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
• Take Home Messages
Great Lakes Fish Community
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Impacts on Fishes: The ExpectedAir
TemperatureSpring
Storms & Rain
Spring Nutrient &Sediment Inputs
Spring RiverDischarge
SpringRunoff
Oxygen Availability( “Dead Zones”)
WinterIce Cover
WaterTemperature
ThermalStratification
WaterLevel
Fish Growth, Survival& Production
PlanktonProduction
WaterClarity
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AirTemperature
WaterTemperature
Fish Growth, Survival& Production
Impacts on Fishes: The Expected• Modeling to date is limited
– Direct effects of temperature
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Impacts of Fishes: The Expected• Water temperature warming
– ↑ warm- and cool-water fishes– ↓ coldwater fishes
Stefan et al (1995)
100
75
50
0
-50
-75
-100
warm-H2O cool-H2O cold-H2O
Lake trout
YellowperchBluegill
% c
hang
e in
ther
mal
hab
itat
Unproductive lakes
Productive lakes
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• Shifts in current species range – Northern expansion of range: warm & cool-water fishes
• Yellow perch, smallmouth bass, walleye, northern pike
Impacts on Fishes: The Expected
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• Shifts in current species range – Northern expansion of range: warm & cool-water fishes
• Yellow perch, smallmouth bass, walleye, carp, northern pike
– Southern retraction of range: cold-water fishes• Lake trout, burbot, lake whitefish, walleye, northern pike
Impacts on Fishes: The Expected
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• Shifts in current species range – Northern expansion of range: warm & cool-water fishes
• Yellow perch, smallmouth bass, walleye, northern pike
– Southern retraction of range: cold-water fishes• Lake trout, burbot, lake whitefish, walleye, northern pike
• Shifts in community composition– Expansion of invasive species
• White perch, striped bass, “native” smallmouth bass
• Altered food-web interactions• Competitive & predatory interactions with new invaders
• Winners & losers will emerge
Impacts on Fishes: The Expected
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• Great Lakes Fish Community
• A Climate Changing
• Impacts on Fishes: The Expected
• Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
• Take Home Messages
Today’s Presentation
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AirTemperature
WaterTemperature
Fish Growth, Survival& Production
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
• Modeling has not considered most indirect effects
• Potential interactions with other human stressors have not been considered
• Modeling to date is limited– Direct effects of temperature
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AirTemperature
SpringStorms & Rain
Spring Nutrient &Sediment Inputs
Spring RiverDischarge
SpringRunoff
Oxygen Availability( “Dead Zones”)
WinterIce Cover
WaterTemperature
ThermalStratification
WaterLevel
Fish Growth, Survival& Production
PlanktonProduction
WaterClarity
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
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Pre
ferre
d te
mpe
ratu
re (º
C)
Habitat preferenceDeep/offshore Shallow/nearshore
Yellowperch
Cold
Cool
WarmYellow Perch
(©Shedd Aquarium)
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
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West
Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Age
-2 y
ello
w p
erch
abu
ndan
ce(m
illio
ns)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175?
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
Data Source: Lake Erie Committee
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WaterTemperature
Fish Growth, Survival& Production
+
AirTemperature
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
Day of Year
Wat
er c
olum
n de
pth
(m)
Lake Michigan yellow perch(Magnuson et al. 1990)
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AirTemperature
SpringStorms & Rain
Spring Nutrient &Sediment Inputs
Spring RiverDischarge
SpringRunoff
Oxygen Availability( “Dead Zones”)
WinterIce Cover
WaterTemperature
ThermalStratification
WaterLevel
Fish Growth, Survival& Production
PlanktonProduction
WaterClarity
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
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• Enhanced bottom hypoxia (“dead zones”)– ↑ air temperature & ↓ ice cover
• ↑ phytoplankton production• ↓ water levels• ↑ thermal stratification
-83.5 -82.5 -81.5 -80.5 -79.541.5
42
42.5
43
0
4
8
12Dissolved oxygen (mg/L)
Lake ErieSept. 2005
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
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• Reducedaccesstobo-ominsummer→hypoxia(lowoxygen)
Cool
Warm
Warmer
Colder Low oxygen With
Climate Warming
No Climate
Warming
wouldresultin:
↓feeding↓growth
↓condi=oninfall
Yellow perch
Benthos
Benthos
ImpactsonFishes:EcologicalSurprises
Robertsetal.(2009,inpress)Arendetal.(2011)
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Oxygen Availability( “Dead Zones”)
WaterTemperature
Fish Growth, Survival& Production
+-
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
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AirTemperature
SpringStorms & Rain
Spring Nutrient &Sediment Inputs
Spring RiverDischarge
SpringRunoff
Oxygen Availability( “Dead Zones”)
WinterIce Cover
WaterTemperature
ThermalStratification
WaterLevel
Fish Growth, Survival& Production
PlanktonProduction
WaterClarity
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
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% fe
mal
es th
at s
paw
ned
Chill duration (days from Oct. 30)
4
6 8
10
100
60
20
120 160 200 240
MonthM A M J J
• Ho: Warmer winters could negatively affect reproduction(impair ovary development, egg production, spawning success)
Fig. 1 from Hokanson (1977)
Treatmenttemperature
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
At least 165 daysbelow 6°C for
100% spawning
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Western
100
200
0Age
-0 Y
P C
PU
E
0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Winter water temperature (°C)
x = 0.27p = 0.03
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
• Ho: Warmer winters could negatively affect reproductive(ovary development, fecundity, spawning or egg/larval survival)
1969-2006
T. Farmer, OSU, unpublished
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Oxygen Availability( “Dead Zones”)
WaterTemperature
Fish Growth, Survival& Production
+-
WinterIce Cover
-
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
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AirTemperature
SpringStorms & Rain
Spring Nutrient &Sediment Inputs
Spring RiverDischarge
SpringRunoff
Oxygen Availability( “Dead Zones”)
WinterIce Cover
WaterTemperature
ThermalStratification
WaterLevel
Fish Growth, Survival& Production
PlanktonProduction
WaterClarity
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
![Page 38: Climate Change Impacts on Great Lakes Fisheschangingclimate.osu.edu/webinars/ppt/stu-ludsin.pdf · Climate Change Impacts on Great Lakes Fishes Stuart A. Ludsin ludsin.1@osu.edu Changing](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040204/5ec870828844071ed020f1d2/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
SpringStorms & Rain
Spring Nutrient &Sediment Inputs
Spring RiverDischarge
SpringRunoff
Fish Growth, Survival& Production
PlanktonProduction
WaterClarity
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
Ho: Increased precipitation-driven
runoff/discharge could benefit fisheries via inputs of nutrients and/or sediments
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April-May Maumee R. discharge(m3 / sec)
100 300 500
Age
-2 y
ello
w p
erch
(mill
ions
)
1
10
100
'87
'88
'89'90
'91
'92
'93'94'95
'96
'97
'98 '99
'00
'01'03
'04
'05
'06
'02
1987-2006
(r = 0.84)
Ho: Increased precipitation-driven
runoff/discharge could benefit fisheries via inputs of nutrients and/or sediments
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
S. Ludsin, unpublished data
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Log10(April-May Maumee River discharge)(m3 / sec)
100 300 500
Log 10
(age
-2 y
ello
w p
erch
)(m
illio
ns)
1
10
100
1000
'58
'59
'60 '61
'62
'63
'64
'65
'66
'67'68'69
'70'71
'72'73
'74'75
'76
'77
'78'79
'80
'81
'82
'83
'84
'85
'86
100 300 500
'87
'88
'89'90
'91
'92
'93'94'95
'96
'97
'98'99
'00
'01'03
'04
'05
'06
'02
1958-1986 1987-2006
(r = 0.84)
Relationship holds only in new regime
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological SurprisesHo: Precipitation-driven runoff/discharge could benefit fisheries via inputs of nutrients and/or sediments
S. Ludsin, unpublished data
![Page 41: Climate Change Impacts on Great Lakes Fisheschangingclimate.osu.edu/webinars/ppt/stu-ludsin.pdf · Climate Change Impacts on Great Lakes Fishes Stuart A. Ludsin ludsin.1@osu.edu Changing](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040204/5ec870828844071ed020f1d2/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Spring Nutrient &Sediment Inputs
Oxygen Availability( “Dead Zones”)
WaterTemperature
Fish Growth, Survival& Production
PlanktonProduction
WaterClarity
+- +
WinterIce Cover
-
Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
![Page 42: Climate Change Impacts on Great Lakes Fisheschangingclimate.osu.edu/webinars/ppt/stu-ludsin.pdf · Climate Change Impacts on Great Lakes Fishes Stuart A. Ludsin ludsin.1@osu.edu Changing](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040204/5ec870828844071ed020f1d2/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
• Great Lakes Fish Community
• A Climate Changing
• Impacts on Fishes: The Expected
• Impacts on Fishes: Ecological Surprises
• Take Home Messages
Today’s Presentation
![Page 43: Climate Change Impacts on Great Lakes Fisheschangingclimate.osu.edu/webinars/ppt/stu-ludsin.pdf · Climate Change Impacts on Great Lakes Fishes Stuart A. Ludsin ludsin.1@osu.edu Changing](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040204/5ec870828844071ed020f1d2/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Take Home Messages• Climate change will affect Great Lakes fishes
– Alter distribution of abundance, fish community composition– Some fisheries will benefit, others will not
• Ability to forecast effects is still in its infancy– Most studies have focused on direct temperature effects– However, numerous other direct/indirect effects likely (via river
discharge, hypoxia, warm winters)
• Need more mechanistic research & modeling– Synergies (Ho: hypoxia + warm winters = ↓ reproduction)– Interactions (Ho: ↑ precipitation/runoff is both good & bad)– Climate change effects are context- (regime) dependent
![Page 44: Climate Change Impacts on Great Lakes Fisheschangingclimate.osu.edu/webinars/ppt/stu-ludsin.pdf · Climate Change Impacts on Great Lakes Fishes Stuart A. Ludsin ludsin.1@osu.edu Changing](https://reader030.vdocuments.mx/reader030/viewer/2022040204/5ec870828844071ed020f1d2/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Thanks for your attention!