climate change: from global predictions to local action mathematical sciences research institute...
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Climate Change:Climate Change:From Global Predictions From Global Predictions to Local Actionto Local Action
Mathematical Sciences Research Institute Mathematical Sciences Research Institute
April 11 2007April 11 2007
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Global Predictions
Inez Fung
University of California, BerkeleyMathematical Sciences Research Institute April 11 2007
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Climate Change: Recent News
• Feb 7 2007: United Nations Env Programme - Intergovt Panel on Climate Change - observed warming since the 20thC is very likely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases
• April 2 2007: US Supreme Court: anthropogenic CO2 is a pollutant
• April 7 2007: UNEP IPCC WG 2 - warming has had discernible influence on physical and biological systems
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Changing Composition of the Atmosphere
Analysis of ancient air bubbles trapped in ice
Direct measurements of atm composition in the past centuries
Increases since 1800 due to human activities
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At equilibrium:
J. Hansen
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The Last 500,000 yearsand
the last 200
years
J. Hansen
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Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
100 0.0740.018
50 0.1280.026
Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,200
6, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,200
0
Period Rate
Years /decade
IPCC AR4
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The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002.
The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI.
Drought is increasing most places
Mainly decrease in rain over land in tropics and
subtropics, but enhanced by increased atmospheric demand
with warming
IPCC AR4
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Processes in Climate Models• Radiative
transfer: solar & terrestrial
• phase transition of water
• Convective mixing
• cloud microphysics
• Evapotranspirat’n
• Movement of heat and water in soils
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Climate Feedbacks
Warming
Evaporation from ocean,Increase water vapor in atmEnhance greenhouse effect
Increase cloud cover;Decrease absorption of solar energy
Decrease snow cover;Decrease reflectivity of surfaceIncrease absorption of solar energy
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AttributionAttribution
• are observed changes consistent with
expected responses to forcings
inconsistent with alternative explanations
Observations
Climate model: All forcing
Climate model: Solar+volcanic only
IPCC AR4
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Projections of Climate Change
IPCC AR4
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greatest over land & at most high N latitudes
and least over the South. Ocean & parts of the N Atlantic Ocean
Projections of Climate Change
IPCC AR4
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Melting glaciers on Greenland: accelerating
warming
Jay Zwally
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Stern Review 2006
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Stern Review 2006
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Strong action is needed urgentlyStrong action is needed urgently
Ste
rn R
evie
w 2
006
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Climate Change:From Global Predictions to Local Action
Mathematical Sciences Research Institute
April 11 2007