climate change decision support system climate services webinar jay day december 2010
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change Decision Support
System
Climate Services Webinar
Jay Day
December 2010
Climate Change Decision Support System
• What– A web-based decision support system to
demonstrate the effect of climate change on streamflow
• Why– Water Managers are interested in assessing
potential impacts of climate change on water availability
– Difficult and expensive to perform watershed-scale studies
– Need for cost-effective tools to support planning under an uncertain climate future
Climate Change Decision Support System
• How– Developed in parallel with Water Research
Foundation project working with Front Range water providers
– NWS watershed-scale hydrologic models– Models directly relate altered temperature and
precipitation regimes to changes in snowpack, soil moisture, and streamflow
– Climate- adjusted streamflow is produced from the available GCM runs for the different IPCC emission scenarios
Web-Based Climate Change DSS
Menu to choose climate models, emission scenarios and time period
Interactive map to quickly choose different sub-basins
Hydrograph depicts climate
adjusted streamflow
for each GCM run in the chosen sub-basin
Hadley CM3
Miroc Hires
Downscaled
http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/
GCM Model Grids Shown for the South Platte Basin
Information to improve understanding and
support assessment
Wyoming
Colorado
Nebraska
Monthly Variability in the Changes
Temperature
Precipitation
Visualization to analyze the variability in the GCM projections by sub-basin
Lake Powell Inflow Volume
1950 - 2000
Lake Powell Inflow Timing
2070 – A1B Emission Scenario
1950 - 2000
Future Developments
• Extension to additional basins• Spatial visualization of results• Interfacing with external operations
models• Multiple hydrologic models• Application to additional water sectors
http://www.climatechangedss.com