Climate Change

Workshop On Integration of Climate Change and Natural Resource Management in Peace Building Activities

Moroto, Uganda: 5th to 6th November, 2015

Daniel Were, Sector Specialist,

Peniel Development Consult

Overview

What is climate change?

What is the impact of climate change?

What can be done to avert climate change - at local and institutional levels?

What have nations done / are doing to address climate change?

Discussion Questions:

Nature doesn’t need people. People need nature

Every meal you’ve ever eaten … every breath you’ve ever taken … every job

you’ve ever had … everything you’ve ever owned … Nature made it all

possible

We need nature. But people are taking more from nature than it can

provide

Every year, 15 million hectares of forest are cut, slashed and burned. That’s

more than 75,000 football fields every single day

Demand for water already exceeds supply in many parts of the world — in fact,

783 million people lack access to clean water

Global demand for food is expected to double by 2050 — yet wild

pollinators are dying, 75 billion tons of soil disappear every year, and droughts

are becoming more common

Th e global political economy of climate change is already evident. Greenhouse

gas (GHG) emission-driven climate change knows no boundaries and does not

respect states’ territorial sovereignty

Some Facts:

Climate change occurs when long-term weather patterns

are altered — for example, through human activity. Global

warming is one measure of climate change, and is a rise in

the average global temperature

Climate patterns play a fundamental role in shaping natural

ecosystems, the human economies and cultures that depend

on them.

Rising levels of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping

gases in the atmosphere have warmed the Earth and are

causing wide-ranging impacts, including rising sea levels;

melting snow and ice; more extreme heat events, fires and

drought; and more extreme storms, rainfall and floods.

What is Climate Change?

Climate vulnerability is defined as the extent to which a

natural or social system is susceptible to sustaining damage

from climate change including climate variability and

extreme weather events

In the last two centuries humans have discharged

approximately 2.3 trillion tons of carbon dioxide, half of

which occurred in the last thirty years. This has resulted in a

31% increase of CO2 since 1750 and rising temperatures.

The Third Assessment Report of the UN's

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

predicts a global temperature rises of 1.4°C to 5.8°C by the

end of the century.

Climate Change (cont …)

Because so many systems are tied to climate, a change in climate

can affect many related aspects of where and how people, plants

and animals live, such as food production, availability and use of

water, and health risks.

Shifts in climate change have had dramatic consequences around

the globe, especially in developing countries, which have a greater

dependence on agriculture, large population growth, weak

infrastructure and low adaptive capacity

Decreased food yields, accelerated desertification or flooding

which destroys fertile land, increased climate variability, creating

economic shocks, and the accelerated spread of disease

(increases in malaria, waterborne diseases, pests)

Diminishing access to resources, such as land and water, leading to

increased competition, creating environmental refugees and

exacerbating issues of vulnerability

Immediate Impacts of Climate Change!

Water Cycle Changes

Because so many systems are tied to climate, a change in climate can affect many related aspects of where and how people, plants and animals live, such as food production, availability and use of water, and health risks.

Shifts in climate change have had dramatic consequences around the globe, especially in developing countries, which have a greater dependence on agriculture, large population growth, weak infrastructure and low adaptive capacity

Climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by the interaction of “multiple stresses”, occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity

decreased food yields, accelerated desertification or flooding which destroys fertile land, increased climate variability, creating economic shocks, and the accelerated spread of disease.

Impacts (Cont …)

The lack of economic resources has led to weak infrastructure, evidenced by the fact that 64% of the populations has access to an improved water source and only 29% of the urban population to improved sanitation facilities. Much of the population relies on the environment.

65% of the land is committed to agriculture (World Development Indicators Database) while a large portion of citizens are self-employed in agriculture, which makes up 40% of GDPs in East Africa. These circumstances make Kenya/Uganda very vulnerable to the effects climate change, with little adaptive capacity

Impacts (Cont …)

What Can You and I Do?

Group 1: How have local people responded

or tried to cope with climate change? Who

is doing what?

Group 2: How has local and national

government responded to climate change?

Group 3: Has climate change contributed

to potential or actual conflict? If so, how?

Discussion Questions:

Overview of Conflicts in

the Context of Climate

Change and NRM

Climate change-related events clearly have the potential to

impede or reverse economic development and generate

humanitarian crises in vulnerable areas

Conflict is almost always the result of the interactions of

multiple factors including … political, economic, social,

historical, and cultural factors, and these must be taken into

account in any analysis

The degree of a country’s or society’s resilience is pivotal in

determining the pathways toward or away from violence

Environmental governance suffers from both a lack of political

will and a lack of institutional resources … Which is why it

becomes fundamentally important to mainstream

Climate Change in our interventions

Can Climate Change actually lead to conflicts?

Conceptual link between climate change, resource scarcity

and resource conflict

Conflict is inevitable in human relations as it acts as a motor of

change. It impacts all of us personally, relationally, structurally and

culturally (Looking at the migration patterns elsewhere)

Conflicts of all types emerge from incompatible goals which are

mutually exclusive which give rise to a contradiction or issue,

creating frustration owing to intensified, basic goals such as

achieving fundamental human needs like food or shelter (People

escaping war zones or battle fields)

The frustration may then lead to aggression in the form of

attitudes of hatred or behaviors of violence. The violence may be

directed at those with the contradictory goals or towards a less

rational target. Thus, conflict arises from a combination of

attitudes, behaviors and contradiction

Assessing Conflict Vulnerabilities Owing to Climate Change

Africa is incredibly vulnerable to climate change in the

geographic sense. This is worsened by the existence of multiple

stresses and low adaptive capacities

Global warming either creates the incompatible goals, by

increasing competition for resources, or aggravates preexisting

conflicts, adding more contradictions and intensifying attitudes.

Climate change threatens water and food security, the allocation

of resources and coastal populations, which could lead to forced

migration, increased tensions and more frequent conflict. It has,

in fact, been called a ―threat multiplier‖

Consequences for climate change in Africa include a fall in

agricultural production, water shortages, mass migrations and

greater risk from vector-borne diseases. Thus, climate change

creates another route to scarcity and collapse

Vulnerabilities and Conflicts (Cont …)

Lack of infrastructure and services, especially in resource-dependent communities. This insufficiency limits economic activity and worsens poverty, which intensifies feelings of vulnerability and increases the probability of violence

Political instability and poor governance also limit adaptive strategies leading to resource competition, a feeling of present and future insecurity that exacerbates conflict

The unpredictability and novelty of climate change creates high levels of anxiety and uncertainty (In Kenya El Nino)

Worsening poverty due to cattle raiding, theft, property damage, population displacement and fatalities

Vulnerabilities and Conflicts (Cont …)

Status of major environmental treaties in Africa

Major environmental treaties

Number of

African states to

have ratified,

acceded to,

approved or

succeeded to

Cartagena Protocol on Bio-safety (2000) 40

Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) 52

Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention on Climate Change

(1997)

47

Convention on Biological Diversity (1992) 52

Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer (1988) 51

Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer

(1989)

53

Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (2001) 44

Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982) 40

Convention to Combat Desertification (1994) 53

National Environmental Management Authority (NEMA)

Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD)

National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS)

Climate Change Coordination Unit (CCCU) – Kenya

Clean Development Mechanism and the Reduced Emissions

from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Plus (REDD+)

Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Parliamentary Network on Renewable Energy and Climate

Change (PANERECC)

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change’s (UNFCC)

Other Climate Change Initiatives

1) Promote Confidence-Building and Increase Trust

Between Governments (of Uganda/Kenya) and the

Citizens

2) Sustain and diversify livelihoods

3) Support climate change adaptation for increased

resilience in affected areas

4) Promote food security interventions

5) Contribute to peacebuilding interventions involving

diverse stakeholders

6) Address knowledge gaps about climate and Climate

Change in communities

What are some recommended interventions to

avert conflicts relating to climate change/NRM?

Aii … Aii Mayi; Aii Aii …Mayi (x2)

Omwana Wanje

Aii Natembea Tira Omwana Natembea

The Small Frog and the Big Frog

Africa is home to 14% of the world population but accounts for only 3% of the worlds energy consumption

It contributes to approximately 3.8% of total greenhouse gas emissions

By 2020 it is projected that between 75 and 250 million Africans will be exposed to water stress caused by climate change

Many African countries cannot cope with the current impacts of climate change’ and that Africa ‘has little capacity to mitigate the effects [of climate change] or adapt to them

The AU and African regional organisations are oft en absent from the proceedings of climate change-related multilateral organisations such as the UN Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD)

Why We must do everything to address Climate Change:

Need for the integration of the environmental protection concerns into the manifold policies of African states in general and the AU in particular’

Almost all African states have ratified, acceded for approval or succeeded to the major international environmental treaties. In particular, all African states have ratified the 1992 Climate Change Convention

African states subscribe to international environmental norms, principles and procedures relating to the environment, which constitutes the international environmental regime, which here refers to a ‘system of principles, norms, operating procedures and institutions that actors create or accept to regulate and coordinate action in a particular issue area’

AU has been predominantly preoccupied with the effects of desertification on the continent and the effective implementation of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification

Why Cont… :

Problem Coping Strategy

Level of effectiveness Impact on Conflict

Proposed Solution

Low Moderate High

Action Planning

“If you think you are too small to

make an impact, try going to bed

with a mosquito in the room”

―It is only when a mosquito lands

on your testicles that you realize

there is always a way to solve

problems without using violence”