climate change: are we losing the carbon-free energy market to china
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change:Are We Losing the Carbon-Free Energy Market to China?
Paul H. Carr, PhD, IEEE Life FellowWeb page: www.MirrorOfNature.org
Earthrise on the Moon
WHY CARBON-
FREE ENERGY?
SAVE OUR EARTH!
It’s the only one with chocolate
1. WHY CARBON-FREE ENERGY?
• NOW emissions from fossil fuel burning are raising carbon dioxide concentrations 35% higher than in the last millions of years.
These emissions are warming our planet via the Greenhouse Effect, increasing weather extremes, like higher intensity hurricanes.
• LONG TERM we will run out of fossil fuels.They are a limited resource, decayed vegetation, multimillions of years old.
IEEE LIFE MEMEBERS CLIMATE DISCUSSION, NewTV, August 2014, Video and PowerPoint available at on my web page www.MirrorOfNature.org
-IEEE Boston Section Introduction: Lennart Long- Moderator (left) John Horrigan introduces Paul H. Carr (center) and Ted Kochanski (right)-20 min Paul H. Carr’s PowerPoint Talk: HUMANS INFLUENCE OUR CLIMATE-20 min Ted Kochanski’s PowerPoint Talk: AGW QUESTIONS TO PONDER- Lively Discussion
This global temperature chart is updated at Columbia University.Data is based on GISTEMP analysis (mostly NOAA data sources) as described by Hansen et al.
2016 & 2015Warmest years On Record
“CO2 warming should emerge from the noise of natural variability (1981)” Hansen
The mean rate of temperature change for NH, below 1.22 degrees C per century, 1750 - 1910, has increased to 5.10. (Non-governmental funded http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/locations/42.59N-72.00W)
• FOSSIL FUELS WILL NOT MEET THE ENEGY DEMAND
• NEED NEW WIND, SOLAR, AND NUCLEAR ENERGY
7
NEED CARBON-FREE ENERGY TO STOPWHAT OUR CLIMATE IS DOING TO US.
“The earth and its poor cry out, and we must listen” Pope Francis
• Rising sea levels from thermal expansion andmelting mountain glaciers, Greenland, & Antarctica.
• Oceans becoming more acidic from CO2 absorption,threatening the bottom of the food chain.
• Weather extremes are increasing:-Wet areas are becoming wetter: Floods & Snow.Atmosphere holds more water vapor at higher temps.
-Dry areas, drier: Expanded Deserts, Droughts & Wildfires.
• Climate Refugees ”CLIMmigration” from droughts.
• Health Hazards- Tick-born Lyme Disease doubled since 1990 as winters warm.- Increased heat deaths: 10,000 deaths in Moscow in 2010.- Germs released as Arctic melts, Anthrax cases reported.
8
Weather Extremes Have More Than Doubled
The Southeastern states (gray), whose economies will suffer the most from climate change, have no renewable energy standards and goals.
2. CARBON-FREE
TECHNOLOGY
•Solar PV
• Windmills
•Next-Generation
Nuclear Fission
Power Plants
• Battery Powered
Electric Cars
Between 2008 and 2013, China's solar-electric panel industry dropped world prices by 80 percent. By John Fialka, ClimateWire on December 19, 2016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_photovoltaics_companies
Reference. A Good Swift KickTwo reports from Pew seek to prod U.S. policymakers to help the U.S. catch up in the global clean-energy race, before it’s too late.
https://siteselection.com/theEnergyReport/2013/mar/clean-energy.cfm
China has 4 companies in the the top 10 wind turbine manufacturers, with the US at 1 (GE).
China leads with 27 % of the market and the US is 3rd at 9 %.Denmark is 2nd at 19%
Nuclear power paves the ONLY viable path forward on climate change, By NASA’s Dr. James Hansen , MIT’s Prof. Kerry Emanuel, and two other top climate scientists, (Op-Ed Guardian, 3 Dec 2015)
They stated, “Modern nuclear technology can reduce proliferation risks and solve the waste disposal problem by burning current waste and using fuel more efficiently. Innovation and economies of scale can make new power plants even cheaper than existing plants.”
Engineers at MIT are designing a nuclear plant that could be moored at sea, like an oil rig. It would cost about one-third less than a conventional plant and take about half the time to build. Floating reactors wouldn’t be in anyone’s backyard (NIMBY).
Fissionable Uranium and Thorium, the
size of a marble,
can provide the energy needs for a
lifetime, saving or planet
How fear of nuclear power is hurting
the environment | YouTube 2016 TED Talk by Michael
Shellenberger
BACKGROUND:
• SOLAR ENERGY IS NUCLEAR.The energy that enables life on earth comes from the nuclear
fusion of hydrogen into helium in our sun.
• Solar energy is available 26% of the time,
wind 33% of the time,
and nuclear 24/7
GLOBALLY: The 7% decrease in Nuclear generated electricity is greater than the +3.8% increase in Solar & Wind.
To make up for the difference, we are burning more fossil fuels, which increase our carbon dioxide emissions .
This is particularly true in Germany. Electricity cost is twice that in the US.
Germany Runs Up Against the Limits of Renewablesby Richard Martin. May 24, 2016 MIT Technology Review
Even as Germany adds lots of wind and solar power to the electric grid, the country’s carbon emissions are rising. Will the rest of the world learn from its lesson?
At one point this month renewable energy sources briefly supplied close to 90 percent of the power on Germany’s electric grid.
At night when the wind is not blowing, they are burning more dirty coal to generate electricity because they are phasing out their nuclear power plants.
Bill Gates is funding a solution to the nuclear waste problem. http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-talks-
private-nuclear-fission-plant-terrapower-2016-4
Gates said that TerraPower's nuclear pilot plant will be built with the China National Nuclear Corp. The economics, safety, waste, and all the key parameters are dramatically improved.
The traveling wave reactor converts depleted uranium, a byproduct of the nuclear-fission process, into usable fuel.
Westinghouse’s reactors being built in S. Carolina and Georgia have gone bankrupt.
24
India, with a billion people similar to China, is a Wild Card that could equal China’s emissions.
Energy Returned on Invested (EROI), Nuclear Largest.( from Weißbach et al.,1) with and without energy storage (buffering). CCGT is closed-cycle gas turbine. PWR is a Pressurized Water (conventional nuclear) Reactor. https://bravenewclimate.com/2014/08/22/catch-22-of-energy-storage/
For storage
Source Total Investment:
60 Year Project
Annual Before-Tax
Revenue
Market Price to
Break Even at 15
Years
Life Span
before
Retooling
Comparative
ROI at 60 Years
($0.145/KWhr)
Nuclear $17.0 Billion $1.244 Billion $0.12/KWhr 60 years $74.7 Billion
Land-based wind
+ batteries
$44.6 Billion $0.873 Billion $$0.11/KWhr 25 years $52.4 Billion
Solar + Batteries $55.8 Billion $0.208 Billion $0.15/KWhr 25 years $12.5 Billion
• Wind is available about 36% of the time and solar about 26%. Renewables need to charge batteries to supply electricity 24/7.
• Kaui (Hawaii) is planning to use Tesla grid-level storage batteries and has a contract for $0.145/KWhr for 20 years. This is a small installation, but it can be used as a comparison. Telsa also offers grid level batteries for sale at $2.5 million/MW.
Over 60 years, the standard license period for nuclear reactors, nuclear provides the largest return on investment (ROI) (Emery et al)
NuclearElectricity2100
PROBLEM: IN the US by 2040,NATURAL GAS & COAL WILL BE THE LARGEST SOURCES OF ELECTRICITY.
SOLUTION: NEXT GENERATION NUCLEAR REACTORS HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AND THEREBY REDUCE CARBON EMISSIONS 24/7
Figure from “Coal’s Last Kick” TIME, April 17, 2017
Not 24/7
29
Alvin Weinberg demonstrated a Thorium molten-salt nuclear reactor at Oak Ridge in 1965- 1969. Its fission byproducts had no weapons value during the Cold War’s nuclear arms race and zero chance of a meltdown.
Thorium reactors lost to Navy Admiral Rickover’s Uranium water-cooled for nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers. Present uranium civilian reactors, whichgenerate 20% of our electricity without carbon emissions, are a spinoff from Rickover’s navy technology.
Pressurized water raises the boiling temperature of nuclear reactors in use today.
& Thorium
• Molten salt reactors operate in the atmosphere.
• No expensive containment structures
• Shut down automatically.
The spent fuel from Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors (LFTR) is significantly less of a storage problem than from present uranium reactors.
Safer Nuclear Power, at Half the Priceby Kevin Bullis. March 12, 2013 Technology Review
Transatomic Power, a MIT spinoff, is developing a new kind of molten-salt reactor designed to overcome the major barriers to nuclear power.
The company’s biggest challenge might come from China, which is investing $350 million over five years to develop molten-salt reactors of its own. It plans to build a two-megawatt test reactor by 2020.
India’s nuclear scientists expect to complete an experimental fast breeder nuclear reactor in Kalpakkam by the end of 2017.
It will generate 500 megawatts of electricity by using the element thorium instead of uranium, which is rare in India.
Trump Could Fuel A Nuclear Energy Boom In 2017James Stafford - Dec 06, 2016
http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Trump-Could-Fuel-A-Nuclear-Energy-Boom-In-2017.html
The president promised to “revive and expand our nuclear energy sector.”
When I asked MIT Prof of Nuclear Science & Engineering, Ian Hutchison about this he replied, “The Republicans are less scared of nuclear energy than the Democrats.”
https://clearpath.org“Conservative Clean Energy” advocates nuclear.
CLEARPATH.ORG News Item.Administration’s Nuclear Review Vital to Pulling Industry Out of Crisis WASHINGTON, June 29, 2017 –
The Trump administration’s upcoming comprehensive study of the promises and challenges of the U.S. nuclear sector may be the catalyst for a wholesale effort to stabilize and modernize the country’s most reliable form of emission-free electricity.
'Miniature', Modular Nuclear Power Plants Could Be Rolled Out in The US by 2026They can fit on the back of a truck. JOSH HRALA 20 JAN 2017
Working with the US Department of Energy (DOE), NuScale Power the company already has plans to showcase their new reactor. They've just announced plans to build a 12-module plant in Idaho, where they'll work with power companies to test their SMR. The technology will be available by 2026.
The 50 MegaWatt design we will hopefully be approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and mass produced to reduce cost by 2026.
https://www.sciencealert.com/miniature-modular-nuclear-power-plants-are-being-implemented-in-the-us
http://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/3/27/15043522/nuclear-power-future-innovation
LOWER COST
The Other Gigafactory: Rongke Power’s battery factory, in Dalian, China, is set to produce 3 gigawatts’ worth of vanadium redox-flow batteries annually by 2020.
https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/its-big-and-longlived-and-it-wont-catch-fire-the-vanadium-redoxflow-battery. Nov 2017
Vanadium flow batteries finally become competitive for grid-scale energy storage.
Vanadium redox-flow batteries started out as a modest research project at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory(PNNL), a U.S. Department of Energy lab in Washington state.
China has the largest and highest-grade vanadium resources in the world. Other sources are Russia and South Africa.
38
Will a New Glass Battery Accelerate the End of Oil?IEEE SPECTRUM 3 March 2017
John Goodenough, 94 co-inventor (1980) of the lithium-ion battery, heads a team of researchers developing the technology that could one day supplant it.
The lithium- or sodium-glass battery has three times the energy storage capacity of a comparable lithium-ion battery.
“”The next step is to verify that the cathode problem is solved,” Goodenough says. “And when we do [that] we can scale up to large-scale cells.
Yet, the world has seen alleged game-changing battery breakthroughs come to naught before.
John Goodenough is a MIT Lincoln Lab Alumnus
Magnetic Transitions in Ti2O3 and V2O3Journal of Applied Physics 31, S344 (1960);P. H. Carr and S. Foner
Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Lexington, Massachusetts
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We have profited form informative discussions with J. B. GoodenoughE. B. Warekois
40
Why are per person carbon emissions in the US twice those of Europe?
$0.30. Gasoline $1.00
Gasoline 2X price in US
Natural gas cheaper than coal.
10/9/15
www.CitizensClimateLobby.org
- Revenue neutral carbon fee with dividend. (RNCFD)
-Dividend would be returned to everyone. $2000 / family.
-Stimulating economy & creating 2 million jobs.
- Stimulate GreenEnergy Innovation.
True social cost of burning fossil fuels.Harness Greed towards Green
42
REDUCING CO2 EMISSIONS HAS NOT WRECKED OUR ECONOMY. Contrary to denier’s claims, reducing CO2 emissions in 1980 & 2010 did not decrease our GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
43
3. Reduced Food Waste (70.53)
4. Plant-Rich Diet (66.11)
POPULATION REDUCTION:
6. Educating Girls (59.60)
7. Family Planning (59.60)
44
Peter Kalmus, PhD, atmospheric scientist at Caltech, lives with his wife and 2 children on 1/10th the fossil fuels of the average American.
2012 Chevy Volt Plug-In Hybrid:
90 miles/gal running quietly on 40 mile battery
40 miles/gal highway with gasoline generator
350 mile range.
2016 NISSANLEAF®As low as:$27,700*Net value after federal tax credit
106City MPGal107 mi range.
My friend bought a 3-year-old-leased Leaf for $10,000.
Mitusbishi i
ELECTRIC CARS
ALL ELECTRIC 2017 CHEVY BOLT EV• 238 mile range after charging.• 120 mpg equivalent • Acceleration 0 to 60 mpg in 6.3 second, about ½ that of
Tesla Model S, but the Bolt’s cost is ½, about $33,000 with the Federal rebate.
The batteries, motor, and one-speed transmission are made in South Korea. The Bolt is assembled in Michigan.
China is preparing to put the brakes on gasoline and diesel
cars.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/news/china-gas-electric-car-ban/index.html
The country, home to the world's largest auto market, is working on a plan to ban the
production and sale of vehicles powered solely by fossil fuels, officials say.
The Chinese government is following in the footsteps of countries
like India, France, Britain and Norway, which have already announced plans to ditch
gas and diesel cars in favor of cleaner vehicles in the coming years.
Ford wants to crack the world's largest auto market with fully electric vehicles sold under a new brand. The company announced plans to form a new joint venture with Anhui ZotyeAutomobile Co., a Chinese brand that specializes in all-electric vehicles.
VOLVO will make only electric and hybrid autos.
The present Republican tax bill would remove the $7500 income tax rebate for electric cars.
Climate Change:Are We Losing the Carbon-Free Energy Market to China?
YES! China has the largest solar PV market share, dominates wind energy, is building the most next-generation nuclear reactors, and has the world’s largest giga-factory for utility scale storage batteries.
The US hosts Tesla’s and Panasonic’s giga-factory for Li-batteries for electric cars.Tesla’s founder and CEO, Elon Musk, a South African immigrant, was attracted
to Silicon Valley from Canada. Will the US continue to attract technical leaders and innovators from abroad?
In the US, 'Miniature', Modular Nuclear Power Plants Could Be Rolled Out by 2026. They can fit on the back of a truck.
• George Schultz’s revenue carbon-fee plus dividend could advance carbon-free technology innovation and stimulate our economy. https://citizensclimatelobby.org/
• Let’s advocate the Citizens Climate Lobby’s carbon-fee plus dividend, eat more plant rich food, and choose less carbon-emitting modes of transportation.