Bienvenido ldquoNonoyrdquo Oplas Jr

Minimal Government Thinkers

South East Asia Network for Devt (SEANET)

Climate Change and the Need for Cheap

and Stable Energy Sources

EPDP Conference 2016

Parallel session B3 Day 1

New World Hotel Makati

January 12-13 2016

Outline

I Climate change as natural and cyclical events not

anthropogenic

II But ldquoman-maderdquo CC means more rains and less rains

more flood and less floodhellip

III Renewables to ldquosave the planetrdquo Germany and UK cases

IV Expensive electricity + mandatory renewables Philippine

case

V Towards cheaper reliable energy sources

VI Summary and recommendations

I Climate change as natural cyclical

events not anthropogenic

Weather climate and natural events are all

about natural cycles

1 Day-night cycle every 24 hours

2 Wet-dry cycle in the tropics winter-spring-

summer-fall cycle in temperate areas yearly

3 Hydrologic cycle water evaporation-

condensation-precipitation

4 Carbon cycle from the atmosphere to

plantstrees to animalshumans to atmosphere

or via the ground to fossil fuels to the

atmospherehellip

More El Nino ndash La Nina southern oscillation (ENSO) data at

httpwattsupwiththatcomreference-pagesclimatic-phenomena-pagesenso

5 El Nino ndash La Nina cycle 1950s-70s cooling

more big La Nina

1980s-2000 warming

big El Nino

2000s-present if

trend line is

made generally

flat

Big El Nino often

followed by big La

Nina

Outline

I Climate change as natural and cyclical events not

anthropogenic

II But ldquoman-maderdquo CC means more rains and less rains

more flood and less floodhellip

III Renewables to ldquosave the planetrdquo Germany and UK cases

IV Expensive electricity + mandatory renewables Philippine

case

V Towards cheaper reliable energy sources

VI Summary and recommendations

I Climate change as natural cyclical

events not anthropogenic

Weather climate and natural events are all

about natural cycles

1 Day-night cycle every 24 hours

2 Wet-dry cycle in the tropics winter-spring-

summer-fall cycle in temperate areas yearly

3 Hydrologic cycle water evaporation-

condensation-precipitation

4 Carbon cycle from the atmosphere to

plantstrees to animalshumans to atmosphere

or via the ground to fossil fuels to the

atmospherehellip

More El Nino ndash La Nina southern oscillation (ENSO) data at

httpwattsupwiththatcomreference-pagesclimatic-phenomena-pagesenso

5 El Nino ndash La Nina cycle 1950s-70s cooling

more big La Nina

1980s-2000 warming

big El Nino

2000s-present if

trend line is

made generally

flat

Big El Nino often

followed by big La

Nina

I Climate change as natural cyclical

events not anthropogenic

Weather climate and natural events are all

about natural cycles

1 Day-night cycle every 24 hours

2 Wet-dry cycle in the tropics winter-spring-

summer-fall cycle in temperate areas yearly

3 Hydrologic cycle water evaporation-

condensation-precipitation

4 Carbon cycle from the atmosphere to

plantstrees to animalshumans to atmosphere

or via the ground to fossil fuels to the

atmospherehellip

More El Nino ndash La Nina southern oscillation (ENSO) data at

httpwattsupwiththatcomreference-pagesclimatic-phenomena-pagesenso

5 El Nino ndash La Nina cycle 1950s-70s cooling

more big La Nina

1980s-2000 warming

big El Nino

2000s-present if

trend line is

made generally

flat

Big El Nino often

followed by big La

Nina

More El Nino ndash La Nina southern oscillation (ENSO) data at

httpwattsupwiththatcomreference-pagesclimatic-phenomena-pagesenso

5 El Nino ndash La Nina cycle 1950s-70s cooling

more big La Nina

1980s-2000 warming

big El Nino

2000s-present if

trend line is

made generally

flat

Big El Nino often

followed by big La

Nina

6 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) cycle Light gray is yearly values dark line is 4-yr trailing averages

7 Climate cycle Climate change (CC) is cyclical (warming-cooling-warming-coolinghellip) not

ldquounprecedentedrdquo

CC is natural (nature-made) not man-made CC happened in the past when there

was not even a single SUV or bicycle or coal power plant

Temperature

reconstruction

for N

Hemisphere

1-2000 AD

Modern warm

period not

exceptional or

scary

Source Dr Roy Spencer Senate EPW Hearing ldquoClimate Change Itrsquos Happened Beforerdquo

July 19th 2013

7 Climate cycle Climate change (CC) is cyclical (warming-cooling-warming-coolinghellip) not

ldquounprecedentedrdquo

CC is natural (nature-made) not man-made CC happened in the past when there

was not even a single SUV or bicycle or coal power plant

Temperature

reconstruction

for N

Hemisphere

1-2000 AD

Modern warm

period not

exceptional or

scary

Source Dr Roy Spencer Senate EPW Hearing ldquoClimate Change Itrsquos Happened Beforerdquo

July 19th 2013

7 Climate cycle

Source Craig Idso Roman and Medieval Warm Periods vs the Current Warm

Period icecapus 19 January 2015

RWP ndash

Roman

Warm Period

MCA ndash

Medieval

Climate

Anomaly

CWP -

Current

Warm Period

7 Climate cycle

Source Euan Mearns Vostok and the 8000 year time lag WUWT Dec 27 2014

8 Long-term climate cycle

Source Craig Idso Roman and Medieval Warm Periods vs the Current Warm

Period icecapus 19 January 2015

RWP ndash

Roman

Warm Period

MCA ndash

Medieval

Climate

Anomaly

CWP -

Current

Warm Period

7 Climate cycle

Source Euan Mearns Vostok and the 8000 year time lag WUWT Dec 27 2014

8 Long-term climate cycle

Source Euan Mearns Vostok and the 8000 year time lag WUWT Dec 27 2014

8 Long-term climate cycle

Source Hockey Schtick New paper suggests removing the Holocene Epoch from the

geologic timescale September 15 2014

Temps last

interglacial

period

~120000

years ago

[and several

other

interglacials]

were higher

than during

the present

interglacial

period

8 Long-term climate cycle

9 Solar cycles

Source Archibald David

First Estimate of Solar

Cycle 25 Amplitude ndash

may be the smallest in

over 300 years WUWT

25 Jan 2012

Source Archibald David A

Dalton-like Amplitude for Solar

Cycle 25 WUWT 19 Nov

2015

Sources httpwwweoearthorgviewarticle154612

Dr Tim Ball Climate Cycles Climate Mechanisms and Determining Accurate

Dates (WUWT) August 31 2014

10 Milankovitch cycles

L-T variations in

the Earthrsquos orbit

that result in

climate changes

over periods

hundred of

thousands of

years related to

ice age cycles

Source Dr Roy Spencer httpwwwdrroyspencercom201306still-epic-fail-73-

climate-models-vs-measurements-running-5-year-means

IPCC ProjectionsForecast vs Actual

Source httpfriendsofscienceorg

Global lower troposphere temps and CO2 concentration

Non-causality bet

global temp and

CO2 concentration

CO2 is not an evil

or pollutant gas It

is a useful gas

The gas that

humans amp animals

exhale the gas

that plants amp

crops use in

photosynthesis

No CO2 no

current life is

possible

Best fit line Jan 2002 to Nov 2015 shows small cooling trend of -001 Cdecade

Temp spikes in 1998 2010 were El Nino events

Source Ira Glickstein Putting Human-Caused Warming in Proper Perspective

April 7 2014

The UN Al Gore Greenpeace WWF CCChellip mean that before humanity

learned to have cars and SUVs before we have malls and tall buildings powered

by coal plants things were so ldquonormalrdquo no extreme rains and extreme drought

no severe flooding and massive deathshellip Really

Recall the Little Ice Age (1200s to 1700s) in (7) Climate cycle above bet the

Medieval Warm Period (MWP1) and Modern warm period (MWP2)

In 1219 flood in Europe drowned 36000 people the 1362 flood killed at

minimum 25000 people

II But ldquoman-maderdquo CC means more rains and

less rains more flood and less floodhellip

More archive stories at httpsstevengoddardwordpresscombelow350-org

In 1709 all rivers and lakes of Europe

were frozen men perished by thousands

In 1716 winter nearly as severe

In 1718 weather extremely hot amp dry

Source The Mercury (Hobart Tas 1860 -

1954) 23 June 1866 httptrovenlagovaundpdelarticle8840044

19 Sept 1892

httptrovenlagovaundpd

elarticle8445064

News from Glasgow Herald in 1971

httpnewsgooglecomnewspapers

55000 dead in Pak News in 1970

httpnewsgooglecomnewspapers

2500 dead in Japan 1959

httpquerynytimescom

Extreme weather only recent bec of ldquoman-maderdquo CC Really

30 Nov 1912 ndash DEADLY TYPHOON

HOLOCAUST IN PHILIPPINES

WASHINGhellip

httptroven

lagovau

BusinessWorld Solar power and supply instability 17 Dec 2015

III Renewables to ldquosave the planetrdquo Germany

and UK cases

Megawatts 2004 2014 2014

China 769 114609 307

US 6750 66146 177

Germany 16623 40500 109

Spain 8462 22987 62

India 3000 22465 60

UK 889 12809 34

Canada 444 9684 26

France 386 9143 25

Italy 1261 8556 23

Brazil 29 6228 17

Sweden 478 5524 15

Denmark 3083 4778 13

Portugal 585 4683 13

Australia 421 4056 11

Poland 55 3885 10

Turkey 20 3762 10

Total World 47935 372961 1000

Cumulative installed wind

turbine capacity MW

BP Stat review world energy 2015

workbook

As of 2014 world solar installed capacity Germany

was 1 UK in 8 Expansion from 2010-2014

Germany 21x UK 55x

Wind capacity Germany was 3 and UK was 6

Expansion fr 2004-2014 Germany 24xm UK 144x

BusinessWorld Feed-in tariff means more expensive electricity 13 Nov 2015

Feed in act rising as

more wind and solar

were added yearly to

the energy mix and

electricity distributors

are forced to buy them

even when cheaper

electricity from coal

natural gas nuclear

and hydro are

available

source NTZ Germanyrsquos Renewable Energy Efficiency Falls To Just Over

20 ndash Threatening To Ruin Countryrsquos Competitiveness February 24 2013

From1990 to 2011 capacity

utilization (a) wind about

15 (b) solar about 10

The other renewables have

higher utilization rate

httpwwwagora-energiewendededethemen-agothem-Produktprodukt76Agorameter

During winter when demand for heating is very high

solar output is close to zero

bull Dark blue - konv Kraftwerke or conventional power plants (coal gas nuke)

bull light blue - laufwasser or hydro power yellow - solar green - wind

bull Red - Stromverbrauch or electricity consumption Data as of Jan 2016

Sunday Express

The Telegraph 5 Oct 2014

Intl Business Times

21 Nov 2014

(b) UK case

The Telegraph British energy firms charge most

for electricity in Europe - why 24 Oct 2015

IV Expensive electricity + mandatory renewables

Philippine case

of popn using biomass for cooking 2012

BWorld DoErsquos new circular will raise not

lower electricity prices Oct 21 2015

PH has 2nd highest electricity price

in Asia next to Japan

Least priority shd be to invent new

schemes to further raise the price

Selected indicators for South East Asian economies 2013

ASEAN + HK

Population (million)

GDP PPP ($ billion)

TPESPopn (toecapita)

Electr Consump (kWhcapita)

Indonesia 2500 205878 085 792

Philippines 984 55420 045 686

Vietnam 897 40930 067 1306

Thailand 670 83120 200 2487

Myanmar 533 9603 031 164

Malaysia 297 59767 299 4474

Cambodia 151 3967 039 220

Singapore 54 36648 483 8840

Brunei 04 2584 728 9553

Hong Kong 72 32962 194 5933

Source Intl Energy Agency (IEA) Key World Energy Statistics 2015

TPES ndash total primary energy supply

Not ASEAN member Laos not included in KWES annual reports

The Philippines still has ldquoenergy povertyrdquo compared to many of its neighbors in the

region even socialist VN has electricity consumption per capita 2x that of PH

Many reasons for (a) energy poverty amp (b) expensive electricity Among themhellip

BusinessWorld Paris COP Emission cut commitment vs energy needs Nov 26 2015

(1) Low use of fossil fuels (ff) TH MY SG HK are 90+ dependent on ff ID

nearly 90 VN 44 dep on hydro SK and TW highmodest use of nuke

BusinessWorld Paris COP Emission cut commitment vs energy needs Nov 26 2015

(1) Low use of fossil fuels (ff) TH MY SG HK are 90+ dependent on ff ID

nearly 90 VN 44 dep on hydro SK and TW highmodest use of nuke

(2) Government bureaucracies both national and local

Among the nearly 200 permits required to put up a base-load plant

Slide from a presentation by Romy Bernardo EPDP forum July 2015

A disease No one movesstarts anything unless he gets the bureaucratsrsquo signatures

(3) Then PH invented new schemes for more expensive electricity via RA

9513 (RE Act of 2008)

Feed in tariff (FIT) means guaranteed higher price and renewable portfolio

standards (RPS) means guaranteed min of renewables that the grid must getbuy

Plus other privileges hardly given to conventional sources

(1) Income tax holiday for 7 years (2) special realty tax rates

(3) duty-free importation of RE machinery eqpt amp materials within the first 10 years

(4) net operating loss carry over to be carried for the next seven years

(5) 10 corporate tax rate (not 30)

(6)tax exemption of carbon credits and

(7) tax credit on domestic capital equipment and services

(BusinessWorld Feed-in tariff means more expensive electricity 13 Nov 2015)

(3) Then PH invented new schemes for more expensive electricity via RA

9513 (RE Act of 2008)

Feed in tariff (FIT) means guaranteed higher price and renewable portfolio

standards (RPS) means guaranteed min of renewables that the grid must getbuy

Plus other privileges hardly given to conventional sources

(1) Income tax holiday for 7 years (2) special realty tax rates

(3) duty-free importation of RE machinery eqpt amp materials within the first 10 years

(4) net operating loss carry over to be carried for the next seven years

(5) 10 corporate tax rate (not 30)

(6)tax exemption of carbon credits and

(7) tax credit on domestic capital equipment and services

(BusinessWorld Feed-in tariff means more expensive electricity 13 Nov 2015)

Renewables cronyism highlighted in a presentation by former DOE Sec Vince Perez

at an ADB climate and energy conference in June 2009

PHrsquos RE law has more favoritism than RE laws of other Asian countries

Ave capacity factor Solar around 18 wind bet 8-17 biomass around 15

Solar output is zero from 6pm to 6am produce electricity only from 6+am to 6 pm

Max of 65 (never reaching 100) in a cloudless noon

And these expensive subsidized and favored new renewables give

little or zero electricity on certain hours daily 365 days a year

V Towards cheaper reliable energy sources

BusinessWorld Paris COP Emission cut commitment

vs energy needs Nov 26 2015

httpoil-pricenet

Ave capacity factor Solar around 18 wind bet 8-17 biomass around 15

Solar output is zero from 6pm to 6am produce electricity only from 6+am to 6 pm

Max of 65 (never reaching 100) in a cloudless noon

And these expensive subsidized and favored new renewables give

little or zero electricity on certain hours daily 365 days a year

V Towards cheaper reliable energy sources

BusinessWorld Paris COP Emission cut commitment

vs energy needs Nov 26 2015

httpoil-pricenet

V Towards cheaper reliable energy sources

BusinessWorld Paris COP Emission cut commitment

vs energy needs Nov 26 2015

httpoil-pricenet

The Times (UK) 2500 new coal plants will thwart any Paris pledges 02 Dec 2015

Cheaper coal means more coal power plants worldwide including

ldquogreenrdquo EU

Global cooling frequent heavy rains and

flooding means more farmers must raise

crops indoors need more electricity

Intensive indoor animal farming

needs more electricity

1 Climate change (CC) is natural (nature-made not ldquoman-maderdquo) it is

cyclical (warming-cooling-warming-cooling) and has precedents (not

ldquounprecedentedrdquo) CC happened in the past happening now will happen in

the future CC is as natural as day-night or wet-dry seasonal cycle

2 Extreme weather severe flooding and drought have precedents It is

dishonest to say they are only ldquorecent due to more use of fossil fuelsrdquo

3 New renewables ldquoto save the planetrdquo cases in Germany and UK cause

new problems like expensive electricity some investments running away

4 Renewables are fine provided there should be NO subsidies People

put up solar panels in their houses or buildings fine they use their own

money It is different when people put up huge wind farms or solar farms

then charge expensive electricity to consumers

5 There is zero climate basis for renewables cronyism energy rationing

and favoritism

VI Summary and recommendations

Recommendations

1 Take advantage of low prices of fossil fuels

like oil natural gas and coal to expand power

generation

2 Reduce government bureaucracies both

national and local in the energy sector

Abolish certain energy taxes like royalties on

(Malampaya) natural gas geothermal power

3 RE Act of 2008 (RA 9513) should be drastically revised Feed in tariff

(FIT) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) should be removed and

discontinued

4 Preparing for global cooling government should build more dams

impound more flood water or allow private sector ownership of dams via

PPP More people die because of too much water and flooding

5 Do large-scale and continuing dredging of lakes rivers and creeks

Spend public money here than in useless climate junkets and meetings

Thank you

httpfunwithgovernmentblogspotcom

httpselectricityasiawordpresscom

bworldonlinecomOpinionMy cup of liberty

minimalgovernmentgmailcom

Intensive indoor animal farming

needs more electricity

1 Climate change (CC) is natural (nature-made not ldquoman-maderdquo) it is

cyclical (warming-cooling-warming-cooling) and has precedents (not

ldquounprecedentedrdquo) CC happened in the past happening now will happen in

the future CC is as natural as day-night or wet-dry seasonal cycle

2 Extreme weather severe flooding and drought have precedents It is

dishonest to say they are only ldquorecent due to more use of fossil fuelsrdquo

3 New renewables ldquoto save the planetrdquo cases in Germany and UK cause

new problems like expensive electricity some investments running away

4 Renewables are fine provided there should be NO subsidies People

put up solar panels in their houses or buildings fine they use their own

money It is different when people put up huge wind farms or solar farms

then charge expensive electricity to consumers

5 There is zero climate basis for renewables cronyism energy rationing

and favoritism

VI Summary and recommendations

Recommendations

1 Take advantage of low prices of fossil fuels

like oil natural gas and coal to expand power

generation

2 Reduce government bureaucracies both

national and local in the energy sector

Abolish certain energy taxes like royalties on

(Malampaya) natural gas geothermal power

3 RE Act of 2008 (RA 9513) should be drastically revised Feed in tariff

(FIT) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) should be removed and

discontinued

4 Preparing for global cooling government should build more dams

impound more flood water or allow private sector ownership of dams via

PPP More people die because of too much water and flooding

5 Do large-scale and continuing dredging of lakes rivers and creeks

Spend public money here than in useless climate junkets and meetings

Thank you

httpfunwithgovernmentblogspotcom

httpselectricityasiawordpresscom

bworldonlinecomOpinionMy cup of liberty

minimalgovernmentgmailcom

1 Climate change (CC) is natural (nature-made not ldquoman-maderdquo) it is

cyclical (warming-cooling-warming-cooling) and has precedents (not

ldquounprecedentedrdquo) CC happened in the past happening now will happen in

the future CC is as natural as day-night or wet-dry seasonal cycle

2 Extreme weather severe flooding and drought have precedents It is

dishonest to say they are only ldquorecent due to more use of fossil fuelsrdquo

3 New renewables ldquoto save the planetrdquo cases in Germany and UK cause

new problems like expensive electricity some investments running away

4 Renewables are fine provided there should be NO subsidies People

put up solar panels in their houses or buildings fine they use their own

money It is different when people put up huge wind farms or solar farms

then charge expensive electricity to consumers

5 There is zero climate basis for renewables cronyism energy rationing

and favoritism

VI Summary and recommendations

Recommendations

1 Take advantage of low prices of fossil fuels

like oil natural gas and coal to expand power

generation

2 Reduce government bureaucracies both

national and local in the energy sector

Abolish certain energy taxes like royalties on

(Malampaya) natural gas geothermal power

3 RE Act of 2008 (RA 9513) should be drastically revised Feed in tariff

(FIT) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) should be removed and

discontinued

4 Preparing for global cooling government should build more dams

impound more flood water or allow private sector ownership of dams via

PPP More people die because of too much water and flooding

5 Do large-scale and continuing dredging of lakes rivers and creeks

Spend public money here than in useless climate junkets and meetings

Thank you

httpfunwithgovernmentblogspotcom

httpselectricityasiawordpresscom

bworldonlinecomOpinionMy cup of liberty

minimalgovernmentgmailcom

Recommendations

1 Take advantage of low prices of fossil fuels

like oil natural gas and coal to expand power

generation

2 Reduce government bureaucracies both

national and local in the energy sector

Abolish certain energy taxes like royalties on

(Malampaya) natural gas geothermal power

3 RE Act of 2008 (RA 9513) should be drastically revised Feed in tariff

(FIT) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) should be removed and

discontinued

4 Preparing for global cooling government should build more dams

impound more flood water or allow private sector ownership of dams via

PPP More people die because of too much water and flooding

5 Do large-scale and continuing dredging of lakes rivers and creeks

Spend public money here than in useless climate junkets and meetings

Thank you

httpfunwithgovernmentblogspotcom

httpselectricityasiawordpresscom

bworldonlinecomOpinionMy cup of liberty

minimalgovernmentgmailcom

Thank you

httpfunwithgovernmentblogspotcom

httpselectricityasiawordpresscom

bworldonlinecomOpinionMy cup of liberty

minimalgovernmentgmailcom