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Climate change: an evolving planetary health emergency?

Prof Colin Butler, ARC Future Fellow

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“We play Russian roulette with climate, hoping that the future will hold no unpleasant surprises. No one knows what lies in the active chamber of the gun".

Broecker WS. Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse? Nature 1987;328:123-126.

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“The expense may be considerable, but the cost of doing nothing is incalculable”

Health in the Greenhouse

Editorial (Lancet, 1989)

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“Demand will create a parachute”

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What does this mean for society?

and health??

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Global Energy Assessment, 2012Global Energy Assessment, 2012

Unmet electricity need

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Global Energy Assessment, 2012

Lack of “modern” energy

Most electricity is not clean

“Coal for all”?

Clean(er) energy for many?

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Released Sept 2014

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Heat waves, fewer cold waves, injuries, floods, fires

Infectious diseases, especially vector borne, allergies, air pollutants, infrastructure

secondary

primary

tertiary

Health effects of adverse global environmental change

famine, conflict, pop’n displacement, refugees, development failure

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Men

tal h

ealth

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“Tertiary”

“Primary”

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“Secondary”

Old location

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Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave

(Azhar et al, 2014) (adapted)

May 1-31

Max temp 2010

Max temp 2009-and 2011

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Daily deaths 2009 & 2011, 2010

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Paris, Heatwave (2003): Daily Mean Temps and Deaths

30Mean daily temp, 2003

Mean daily temp 1999-2002

~12 oC above season norm

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15 oC

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35 oC

~900 extra deaths during heatwave

350

300

250

200

150

100

0

Daily deaths

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van den Torren, 2004

+8 oC

+12 oC

Daily deaths: 2003 1999-2002

~100 extra deaths

June …..……………… July …………………. ………… August ……….

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ElderlyPeople with chronic disease (renal, cardiac, dementia?)PoorMentally illMultiple sclerosis

Emergency workersMilitary personnel?Many workers in already hot places, eg factories, cane cutters, labourers in Middle East

Extreme heat and health: who is vulnerable?

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Super Typhoon Haiyan approaching the Philippines on Nov 7, 2013. Credit: EUMETSAT (Wide-angle satellite image)

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Typhoon Haiyan, Tacloban, The PhilippinesStrongest recorded storm to make landfallDirect death toll: >5,000Displaced: >4 millionTotal Burden of Disease?Fraction attributable to climate change?

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A year on, typhoon-devastated Philippine city fails to rebuild homes Date: 29-Oct-14Country: PHILIPPINES

Tacloban Mayor: <100 of 14,500 promised permanent homes built, (7m storm surges destroyed around 90% of city)

“The nephew of Imelda Marcos did not mention graft as factor in one of Asia's most corrupt countries”

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secondary

primary

tertiary

“Tertiary” health effects

famine, conflict, pop’n displacement, refugees, development failure

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Men

tal h

ealth

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(nominal prices)

20Butler, 2013

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Russia/Ukraine heat/drought

US droughts

Butler

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Waterscarcity

Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage• climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger• armed conflict, current/recent

From UK Ministry of Defence

[May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture]

Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions

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Burden of Disease (proportion)

Year widely accepted

now 2050?

PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity)

SECONDARY (e.g. vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies)

TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”) famine, conflict, large-

scale migration, economic collapse

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Eco-medicine?

The good news is you’re too big

to let fail

Pope

Canberra Times

29.10.08

The good news is you’re too big to let

fail The bad news is it’s hard to get a

government bailout until your

stocks completely

crash

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Towards a solution

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Toxicity

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Placebo

Vaccine spectrum

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Panic, despair, or indifference

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“Polyanna”

“Social vaccine” spectrum

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“Coal is good for humanity”

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“Peak health”

President Royal Society 2005-2010

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“The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be

discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

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Qld govt “future vision 2044”

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Crisis = opportunity31

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Ingenuity in the Year without a summer (1816)32

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Rod Simpson

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Global Energy Assessment, 2012

Solar (1975-20072007-10)

NUCLEAR

US$/kwH(2005

dollars)

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Lock-in of Technological and Social Cultures &Institutions

The QWERTY Phenomenon

SUBSIDIES: fossil fuel /renewables: 6 to 1 (2011 )

10 times more than costs of Hurricane Sandy

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He Had a dream

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