climate change and australian farming systems
DESCRIPTION
Peter Hayman speaking at the Mannum Community Science ForumTRANSCRIPT
South Australian Murray Darling Basin NRM BoardRanges to River NRM - Community Science Forum
Farming Sustainability &
Technologies
Climate change and Australian Farming Systems
Peter Hayman SARDI and Deirdre Lemerle CSU, Wagga
What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ?
What can we learn from the wave about future resilience and vulnerability ?
CSIRO and Bureau of Met March 2010
Causes of climate change
Causes
Ocean Circulation
Volcanic eruptions
Solar variations
Orbital variations
Greenhouse gasses
Feedback
Clouds, Aerosols, Water vapour, Ice reflectivity, GHG
Changes to global climate
Changes to regional climate
Impacts on local natural and human systems
Changes to the atmosphere
www.stephenschneider.stanford.edu
Cascading uncertainty
Changes to global climate
Changes to regional climate
Impacts on local natural and human systems
Changes to the atmosphere
www.stephenschneider.stanford.edu
Cascading uncertainty
Emission scenarios
Global circulation models
Downscaling models
Impact models
Role for agronomy & farming systems
Role for agronomy and farming sysgtems
Climate Science
Ryan et al 2010
Lyndoch
Nurioopta
Eden Valley
N
Thinking about future climates
Climate change projections from GCMS
Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline
Temporal analogues
– eg drought
Spatial analogues – study a warmer & drier site
Legend
Goyders_line
Cropping areas 2008
Legend
Goyders_line
Cropping areas 2008 Is this drought or aridity; drought or drying; variability or change; cycle or shift.
April to October rainfall
Sep 2000
Sep 2002
Sep 2006
Howden et al 2010