1.Climate change and Australian Farming Systems Peter Hayman SARDI and Deirdre Lemerle CSU, Wagga

2. Climate Change and Farming Systems

High level of interest from contributed papers & posters to CCRSPI conference

Survey for Primary Industries Adaptation Research Network (PIARN)

GRDC review of grains RD&E referred to farming systems 94 times

3. The study of farming systems in Australia has benefited from

Hard systems thinking from ecology

Hard systems thinking from management science and operations research

Soft systems thinking from sociology

4. Different views of climate change and farming systems

a biophysical ecosystem processing materials,

a business or production system generating income,

a family farm integrated into the wider rural community.

5. Nemani et al 2003 Science(6 June 03) Climate is central to understanding of natural and managed systems 6. Ryan et al 2010 7. Is this drought or aridity; drought or drying; variability or change; cycle or shift. 8. 9. Research on farming systems

Level of study (farming systems)

10. Passioura 1979

Meaning n+1 (Landscapes & communities)

Level of study (farming systems)

Explanation n-1(crop and animal physiology, soil, weed science, plant pathology, entomology, climate science)

11. Minnipa Orroroo Increasing farm size changing rural communities 12. 13. Passioura 1979

Meaning (Landscapes & communities)

Level of study ( farming systems )

Explanation(crop and animal physiology, soil, weed science, plant pathology, entomology, climate science)

14. Five Questions at the farming systems level

1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region?

2) What are the impacts of these changes?

3) What can be done to adapt ?

4) What are the risks and opportunities for my farm from policies to reduce emissions

5) How can I measure and manage emissions on my farm

CCRSPI2008 15. 1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region?

Predictions are not instructions that people simply follow to make better decisions. They are pieces of an intricate puzzle that may sometimes contribute to improved decisions.Daniel Sarewitz.Nature 463: 2010

Learn from failure of predicting earthquakes (robust buildings) as well as success of predicting cyclones.

16. 17. Lyndoch Nurioopta Eden Valley N 18. Thinking about future climates Climate change projections from GCMS Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline 19. 20. April to October rainfall 21. April to October rainfall 22. April to October rainfall 23. 24. Thinking about future climates Climate change projections from GCMS Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline Temporal analogueseg drought Spatial analogues study a warmer & drier site 25. Ryan et al 2010 26. Five Questions at the farming systems level

2) What are the impacts of these changes?

The same climate state can have very different impacts.

Light soils vs heavy soils, sheep vs livestock, olives vs citrus.

27. Garnault: costs of climate change

Type 1 Direct costs lower crop yield

Type 2 Indirect costs (eg tourism) impact of dropping break crops

Type 3 Risk & insurance costs not sowing due to fear of heat event

Type 4 Non market impacts (eg species loss), changes to rural communities, food sovereignty.

28. Five Questions at the farming systems level

3) What can be done to adapt ?

Martin and Parry (1988) stop just doing impact studies

Beyond the damage report

Recognise just how adaptive Australian agriculture especially as measured by decades

29. The challenge ofadditionalityin adaptation. 30. Howdenet al2010 31. Sep 2000 32. Sep 2002 33. Sep 2006 34. Five Questions at the farming systems level

1) What are the climate change projections for my farming region?

2) What are the impacts of these changes?

3) What can be done to adapt ?

4) What are the risks and opportunities for my farm from policies to reduce emissions

5) How can I measure and manage emissions on my farm

35. Garnaut 2010 ( Aust J Ag & Res Ec )

Agriculture will suffer from unmitigated climate change

like the Australian economy as a whole, but more so, agriculture would be likely to face significant costs that were not balanced by benefits in the early stages of an Australian mitigation regime.

36. Different views of climate change and farming systems

a biophysical ecosystem processing materials,

a business or production system generating income,

a family farm integrated into the wider rural community.

37. What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ? What can we learn from the wave about future resilience and vulnerability ? 38. Source: Bureau of Meteorology 39. Weather Season Climate change

We cannot reliably remember climate because memory generates meaningnot statistics. our lives lurch between expectation and event, between the idea of climate and the reality of weather.Sherratt (2005)

40.