Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving

(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood

Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)

rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood

Winter 2015

January 27, 2015

Class Information and News

•  Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15

–  Record of course

•  Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site –  http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action

•  A tumbler site to help me remember –  http://openclimate.tumblr.com/

Resources and Recommended Reading

•  TED Video and Education on Feedbacks •  Wikipedia on Feedbacks •  Soden and Held: Feedbacks in Climate

Models •  Lindzen and Hou: The Iris Effect

Mind Map / Brainstorming

Outline: Class 6, Winter 2015

•  Balance and Altering Balance –  System –  Unique

•  Feedbacks –  Alter balance: Recover? –  Alter balance: Fall? –  Alter balance: New Balance?

•  In class discussion: Northeast Blizzard –  Weather –  Climate –  Climate change?

BALANCE

Radiation Balance Figure In this figure out = in

BALANCE (National Geographic)

Lynx and Hare: Predator Prey

Wolf- Moose: For Example Isle Royale NP

Artist’s View of Ecosystem

How might the balance change? 1) 2) from weather? 3) from climate?

Isle Royale: Wolf-Moose Climate Change (Example of Scenario Planning)

So what matters?

Things that change

reflection Things that

change absorption

Changes in the sun

If something can transport energy DOWN from the surface.

THIS IS WHAT WE ARE DOING

Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009) In this figure out does not = in

Balance: Markets and Economics

•  What does the Federal Reserve do? •  Markets (How do we watch movies?)

– 1950 – 1970 – 1990 – 2000 – 2015

•  Movies •  Movies on TVs •  Videocassettes •  DVDs

•  Blockbuster, Netflix, RedBox •  Streaming

Feedbacks

•  When you think of feedback what is your first thought?

Problem Solving Brings Focus to System

•  System (Dictionary Definitions): – a set of connected things or parts forming a

complex whole – a set of interacting or interdependent

components forming an integrated whole – has: Structure, Behavior, Interconnection

•  Systems Engineering: study, understanding (analysis), design, management of systems

What are the mechanisms for production

and loss of CO2?

Movement of carbon

dioxide by burning

Net +3.5

Millions of

Years

Feedbacks from Increased Carbon Dioxide?

More consideration of radiative energy in the atmosphere

•  FEEDBACKS .... – The idea that one thing causes a second thing

to happen. •  That second thing then does something to the first

thing –  It damps it, negative feedback –  It amplifies it, positive feedback

–  Technical Reference: Soden and Held

Feedback

•  Definition – Feedback occurs when outputs of a system

are "fed back" as inputs to the system •  Negative feedback regulates the system •  Positive feedback causes system to

–  Implode – Explode

We perturb the system – how does it respond?

•  What happens when we perturb the system? Is it stable or unstable?

•  Feedbacks – are they positive or negative?

The Earth System: Feedbacks 1 Infrared Proportional to Temperature

SURFACE

Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space

ATMOSPHERE

(infrared)

Assume that greenhouse gases remain the same •  Infrared emission is proportional to temperature •  Temperature increases à emission increases

λ

λ

HT

THtT

=

=−=Δ

Δ 0

Let’s think about Temperature and Moisture

•  If you were becoming a forest fire fighter •  If you were developing a new clothes dryer

Holding Moisture vs Temperature

From Engineering Tool Box

Temperature and Moisture in Air

Moisture

Temperature

Hot Wet

Hot Dry

Cold Dry

Cold Wet

Moisture in Air vs Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse effect

Moisture

Warmer

Not Physical Cooler

Not physical

CO2 Warming

•  Increases Temperature •  Increases Moisture •  Increases Greenhouse •  Increases Temperature

The Earth System: Feedbacks 2 Water Vapor

When it gets warmer more water, a greenhouse gas, will be in the atmosphere •  Higher temperature increases evaporation from land and ocean •  Higher temperature allows air to hold more water •  Increase of water increases thickness of blanket – increases temperature more

•  This could runaway! •  Natural limit because of condensation à clouds, rain? •  Compensating circulation changes?

•  Think deserts …

SURFACE

Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space

ATMOSPHERE

(infrared)

Temperature and Ice/Snow

Ice

Temperature

Less Ice

More Ice

Ice/Snow and Reflection

Reflection

Ice Snow

Increased Reflection

Decreased Reflection

Ice/Snow and Absorption

Absorption

Ice Snow

Increased Absorption Increased Ice/Snow

Decreased Absorption Decreased Ice/Snow

Increased Absorption Decreased Ice/Snow

Decreased Absorption Increased Ice/Snow

?

?

?

?

The Earth System: Feedbacks 3 Ice – Reflection (Albedo)

ICE

Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space When it gets warmer less ice •  Less ice means less reflection à warmer •  Warmer means less ice

•  This could runaway! •  Cooler works the other way à ice-covered

What happens with clouds?

The Earth System: Feedbacks 4 Clouds?

SURFACE

Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space

ATMOSPHERE

(infrared)

Clouds are difficult to predict or to figure out the sign of their impact •  Warmer à more water à more clouds •  More clouds mean more reflection of solar à cooler •  More clouds mean more infrared to surface à warmer •  More or less clouds?

•  Does this stabilize? •  Water in all three phases essential to stable climate

CLOUD

Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback

•  Warming and Cooling Possible –  This is where much of the discussion about scientific

uncertainty resides. –  How clouds change has been much argued.

•  The Iris Effect?

The Earth System: Feedbacks 5 Something with the Ocean?

Is there something with the ocean and ice? •  Warming ocean temperatures? •  Ice sheets melting decreases ocean salinity (density) •  Sea-ice impacts heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere •  Sea-ice impacts solar absorption of ocean •  North Atlantic sea-ice and ocean interaction very important to the climate

•  Think Gulf Stream •  Think climate and people and economy

•  Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate? •  Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps not stable from a societal point of view.

The Earth System: Feedbacks 6 Something with the Land?

Is there something with the land and ice/snow? •  Warming land temperatures? •  Snow cover decreases reflection on land? •  Tundra, Arctic very important to climate stability

•  Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate? •  Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps not stable from a societal point of view.

CLOUD-WORLD

Earth System: Ice

ATMOSPHERE

LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere)

SUN

ICE: •  Very important to reflection of solar radiation •  Holds a lot of water (sea-level rise) •  Insulates ocean from atmosphere (sea-ice)

Ice impacts both radiative balance and water – oceans and water resources on land. . •  Large “local” effects at pole. •  Large global effects through ocean circulation and permafrost melting. •  Might change very quickly.

The Earth System: ICE (Think a little more about ice)

non-polar glaciers

and snow

polar glaciers

(Greenland) (Antarctica)

sea-ice

Impacts regional water supply,

agriculture, etc.

Solar reflection, Ocean density, Sea-level rise

Solar reflection, Ocean-atmosphere

heat exchange

(Tour of the cryosphere, Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio)

Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback

•  Some carry away messages –  The Earth is at a complex balance point

•  That balance relies on water to exist in all three phases. –  Too warm could run away to “greenhouse” vapor –  Too cold run away to “snowball” ice

–  Is there something in all of this that changes the sign; namely, that CO2 warming will be compensated by more cooling?

•  Is Earth a “regulated” system? •  Have you heard of Gaia Hypothesis?

Feedbacks

•  Ice-albedo, water vapor feedback are positive and definitive.

•  Feedbacks associated with melting in the Arctic are largely positive. –  (WWF, Literature Assessment, 2009)

•  The only potentially negative feedback is associated with clouds, which is observed.

•  Complex role of particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere. •  Theoretical and observational investigation concludes

that feedbacks are substantially linear and positive. –  (Roe and Baker, Science, 2007)

Class Exercise: Weather and Climate

•  Case Study: Winter storm that is happening now.

Temperature and Moisture in Air

Moisture

Average Temperature

Hot Wet

Hot Dry

Cold Dry

Cold Wet

Summary: Class 6, Winter 2015

•  Climate that we have evolved our civilizations in is a “balanced system” – Unique and stable – Prone to natural change

•  With stable input? •  With varying input?

Summary: Class 6, Winter 2015

•  Climate that we have evolved our civilizations in is a “balanced system” – Unique and stable – Prone to natural change

•  With stable input? •  With varying input?

Outline: Class 6, Winter 2015

•  Balance and Altering Balance –  System –  Unique

•  Feedbacks –  Alter balance: Recover? –  Alter balance: Fall? –  Alter balance: New Balance?

•  In class discussion: Northeast Blizzard –  Weather –  Climate –  Climate change?

Some key words so far:

•  Absorption •  Reflection •  Balance •  Temperature to zero degrees •  CO2 and Temperature Correlation •  Societal Impacts (LIA vs MWP) •  Conservation Calculating Budgets