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Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) [email protected] http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2015 January 27, 2015

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  • Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving

    (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood

    Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)

    [email protected] http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood

    Winter 2015

    January 27, 2015

  • Class Information and News

    •  Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15

    –  Record of course

    •  Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site –  http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action

    •  A tumbler site to help me remember –  http://openclimate.tumblr.com/

  • Resources and Recommended Reading

    •  TED Video and Education on Feedbacks •  Wikipedia on Feedbacks •  Soden and Held: Feedbacks in Climate

    Models •  Lindzen and Hou: The Iris Effect

  • Mind Map / Brainstorming

  • Outline: Class 6, Winter 2015

    •  Balance and Altering Balance –  System –  Unique

    •  Feedbacks –  Alter balance: Recover? –  Alter balance: Fall? –  Alter balance: New Balance?

    •  In class discussion: Northeast Blizzard –  Weather –  Climate –  Climate change?

  • BALANCE

  • Radiation Balance Figure In this figure out = in

  • BALANCE (National Geographic)

  • Lynx and Hare: Predator Prey

  • Wolf- Moose: For Example Isle Royale NP

  • Artist’s View of Ecosystem

    How might the balance change? 1) 2) from weather? 3) from climate?

    Isle Royale: Wolf-Moose Climate Change (Example of Scenario Planning)

  • So what matters?

    Things that change

    reflection Things that

    change absorption

    Changes in the sun

    If something can transport energy DOWN from the surface.

    THIS IS WHAT WE ARE DOING

  • Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009) In this figure out does not = in

  • Balance: Markets and Economics

    •  What does the Federal Reserve do? •  Markets (How do we watch movies?)

    – 1950 – 1970 – 1990 – 2000 – 2015

    •  Movies •  Movies on TVs •  Videocassettes •  DVDs

    •  Blockbuster, Netflix, RedBox •  Streaming

  • Feedbacks

    •  When you think of feedback what is your first thought?

  • Problem Solving Brings Focus to System

    •  System (Dictionary Definitions): – a set of connected things or parts forming a

    complex whole – a set of interacting or interdependent

    components forming an integrated whole – has: Structure, Behavior, Interconnection

    •  Systems Engineering: study, understanding (analysis), design, management of systems

  • What are the mechanisms for production

    and loss of CO2?

    Movement of carbon

    dioxide by burning

    Net +3.5

    Millions of

    Years

  • Feedbacks from Increased Carbon Dioxide?

  • More consideration of radiative energy in the atmosphere

    •  FEEDBACKS .... – The idea that one thing causes a second thing

    to happen. •  That second thing then does something to the first

    thing –  It damps it, negative feedback –  It amplifies it, positive feedback

    –  Technical Reference: Soden and Held

  • Feedback

    •  Definition – Feedback occurs when outputs of a system

    are "fed back" as inputs to the system •  Negative feedback regulates the system •  Positive feedback causes system to

    –  Implode – Explode

  • We perturb the system – how does it respond?

    •  What happens when we perturb the system? Is it stable or unstable?

    •  Feedbacks – are they positive or negative?

  • The Earth System: Feedbacks 1 Infrared Proportional to Temperature

    SURFACE

    Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space

    ATMOSPHERE

    (infrared)

    Assume that greenhouse gases remain the same •  Infrared emission is proportional to temperature •  Temperature increases à emission increases

    λ

    λ

    HT

    THtT

    =

    =−=Δ

    Δ 0

  • Let’s think about Temperature and Moisture

    •  If you were becoming a forest fire fighter •  If you were developing a new clothes dryer

  • Holding Moisture vs Temperature

    From Engineering Tool Box

  • Temperature and Moisture in Air

    Moisture

    Temperature

    Hot Wet

    Hot Dry

    Cold Dry

    Cold Wet

  • Moisture in Air vs Greenhouse Effect

    Greenhouse effect

    Moisture

    Warmer

    Not Physical Cooler

    Not physical

  • CO2 Warming

    •  Increases Temperature •  Increases Moisture •  Increases Greenhouse •  Increases Temperature

  • The Earth System: Feedbacks 2 Water Vapor

    When it gets warmer more water, a greenhouse gas, will be in the atmosphere •  Higher temperature increases evaporation from land and ocean •  Higher temperature allows air to hold more water •  Increase of water increases thickness of blanket – increases temperature more

    •  This could runaway! •  Natural limit because of condensation à clouds, rain? •  Compensating circulation changes?

    •  Think deserts …

    SURFACE

    Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space

    ATMOSPHERE

    (infrared)

  • Temperature and Ice/Snow

    Ice

    Temperature

    Less Ice

    More Ice

  • Ice/Snow and Reflection

    Reflection

    Ice Snow

    Increased Reflection

    Decreased Reflection

  • Ice/Snow and Absorption

    Absorption

    Ice Snow

    Increased Absorption Increased Ice/Snow

    Decreased Absorption Decreased Ice/Snow

    Increased Absorption Decreased Ice/Snow

    Decreased Absorption Increased Ice/Snow

    ?

    ?

    ?

    ?

  • The Earth System: Feedbacks 3 Ice – Reflection (Albedo)

    ICE

    Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space When it gets warmer less ice •  Less ice means less reflection à warmer •  Warmer means less ice

    •  This could runaway! •  Cooler works the other way à ice-covered

  • What happens with clouds?

  • The Earth System: Feedbacks 4 Clouds?

    SURFACE

    Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space

    ATMOSPHERE

    (infrared)

    Clouds are difficult to predict or to figure out the sign of their impact •  Warmer à more water à more clouds •  More clouds mean more reflection of solar à cooler •  More clouds mean more infrared to surface à warmer •  More or less clouds?

    •  Does this stabilize? •  Water in all three phases essential to stable climate

    CLOUD

  • Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback

    •  Warming and Cooling Possible –  This is where much of the discussion about scientific

    uncertainty resides. –  How clouds change has been much argued.

    •  The Iris Effect?

  • The Earth System: Feedbacks 5 Something with the Ocean?

    Is there something with the ocean and ice? •  Warming ocean temperatures? •  Ice sheets melting decreases ocean salinity (density) •  Sea-ice impacts heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere •  Sea-ice impacts solar absorption of ocean •  North Atlantic sea-ice and ocean interaction very important to the climate

    •  Think Gulf Stream •  Think climate and people and economy

    •  Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate? •  Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps not stable from a societal point of view.

  • The Earth System: Feedbacks 6 Something with the Land?

    Is there something with the land and ice/snow? •  Warming land temperatures? •  Snow cover decreases reflection on land? •  Tundra, Arctic very important to climate stability

    •  Is there a natural feedback that stabilizes climate? •  Even if there is, it would be very disruptive, perhaps not stable from a societal point of view.

  • CLOUD-WORLD

    Earth System: Ice

    ATMOSPHERE

    LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere)

    SUN

    ICE: •  Very important to reflection of solar radiation •  Holds a lot of water (sea-level rise) •  Insulates ocean from atmosphere (sea-ice)

    Ice impacts both radiative balance and water – oceans and water resources on land. . •  Large “local” effects at pole. •  Large global effects through ocean circulation and permafrost melting. •  Might change very quickly.

  • The Earth System: ICE (Think a little more about ice)

    non-polar glaciers

    and snow

    polar glaciers

    (Greenland) (Antarctica)

    sea-ice

    Impacts regional water supply,

    agriculture, etc.

    Solar reflection, Ocean density, Sea-level rise

    Solar reflection, Ocean-atmosphere

    heat exchange

    (Tour of the cryosphere, Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio)

  • Cloud-Ice-Atmosphere Feedback

    •  Some carry away messages –  The Earth is at a complex balance point

    •  That balance relies on water to exist in all three phases. –  Too warm could run away to “greenhouse” vapor –  Too cold run away to “snowball” ice

    –  Is there something in all of this that changes the sign; namely, that CO2 warming will be compensated by more cooling?

    •  Is Earth a “regulated” system? •  Have you heard of Gaia Hypothesis?

  • Feedbacks

    •  Ice-albedo, water vapor feedback are positive and definitive.

    •  Feedbacks associated with melting in the Arctic are largely positive. –  (WWF, Literature Assessment, 2009)

    •  The only potentially negative feedback is associated with clouds, which is observed.

    •  Complex role of particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere. •  Theoretical and observational investigation concludes

    that feedbacks are substantially linear and positive. –  (Roe and Baker, Science, 2007)

  • Class Exercise: Weather and Climate

    •  Case Study: Winter storm that is happening now.

  • Temperature and Moisture in Air

    Moisture

    Average Temperature

    Hot Wet

    Hot Dry

    Cold Dry

    Cold Wet

  • Summary: Class 6, Winter 2015

    •  Climate that we have evolved our civilizations in is a “balanced system” – Unique and stable – Prone to natural change

    •  With stable input? •  With varying input?

  • Summary: Class 6, Winter 2015

    •  Climate that we have evolved our civilizations in is a “balanced system” – Unique and stable – Prone to natural change

    •  With stable input? •  With varying input?

  • Outline: Class 6, Winter 2015

    •  Balance and Altering Balance –  System –  Unique

    •  Feedbacks –  Alter balance: Recover? –  Alter balance: Fall? –  Alter balance: New Balance?

    •  In class discussion: Northeast Blizzard –  Weather –  Climate –  Climate change?

  • Some key words so far:

    •  Absorption •  Reflection •  Balance •  Temperature to zero degrees •  CO2 and Temperature Correlation •  Societal Impacts (LIA vs MWP) •  Conservation Calculating Budgets