climate certainty, uncertainty & options

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  1. 1. Johnnycashproject.com Reveal
  2. 2. Mario Molina Communicating on Climate in an Uncertain Communication Climate
  3. 3. IGBP
  4. 4. @keeling_curve
  5. 5. Populationaction.org
  6. 6. 1983 111111111
  7. 7. 1983 111111111
  8. 8. 1985 111111111
  9. 9. 1985 1988
  10. 10. Perhaps earth scientists of the future will name this new post-Holocene era for its causative element -- for us. We are entering an age that might someday be referred to as, say, the Anthrocene. After all, it is a geological age of our own making. The challenge now is to find a way to act that will make geologists of the future look upon this age as a remarkable time, a time in which a species began to take into account the long-term impact of its actions. j.mp/92warmbook
  11. 11. Matthew Fontaine Maury, ~1855: [T]o the right- minded mariner, and to him who studies the physical relations of earth, sea, and air, the atmosphere is something more than a shoreless ocean, at the bottom of which he creeps along.... It is an inexhaustible magazine, marvellously adapted for many benign and beneficent purposes. Upon the proper working of this machine depends the well being of every plant and animal that inhabits the earth; therefore the management of it, its movements, and the performance of its offices, cannot be left to chance. Me, 1992: Now we have arrived at a time when, voluntarily or involuntarily, humans are indeed "managing" the atmosphere. We had better manage it well. j.mp/92warmbook
  12. 12. The Shapers of News Tyranny of the Peg Lure of the Front-Page Thought Tyrannies of Space/Time Tyranny of Balance Lure of Conflict and debate
  13. 13. Paucity of data leads to overabundance of assertion. Argument, edge and policy relevance lead to media interest Too often content to be right for a day
  14. 14. museumvictoria.com.au
  15. 15. There is no we
  16. 16. Girding for a climate fight? Pick your physics Nobelist. Nobe CulturalCognition.net
  17. 17. High dwellings are the peace and harmony of our descendants. Remember the calamity of the great tsunamis. Do not build any homes below this point.
  18. 18. mind
  19. 19. Design? Manage? DECIDE??
  20. 20. j.mp/epaheriberto
  21. 21. Coordinated manipulation of at least six variables is necessary to maintain stability for 200 years or so.
  22. 22. We lack a cultural narrative that says sustainability is really important. We have a cultural narrative that says murder is wrong. We dont have a cultural narrative that says managing our planet in a way that allows us to live on it as long as we can is probably the most important thing. Coordinated manipulation of at least six variables is necessary to maintain stability for 200 years or so.
  23. 23. Old Goals
  24. 24. Woe is me 350 80% by 2050 NIGERIA (U.N. 2015 projection)
  25. 29. New Goals
  26. 30. New Goals Traits
  27. 31. hhnaturemuseum.org
  28. 32. Woe is me
  29. 33. Bend
  30. 34. Bend Billy Parish, 2005 Energy Action Coalition
  31. 35. Bend Billy Parish, 2005 Energy Action Coalition Billy Parish, 2014 joinmosaic.com
  32. 36. Paul Kench George Steinmetz Bend
  33. 37. Fill in this blank @theWCS welikia.org Bend
  34. 38. Stretch
  35. 39. Prospective Design Houses, Ecosystems riverarchitects.com j.mp/seariseconservation Stretch
  36. 40. Stretch
  37. 41. Taylorguitars.com Stretch
  38. 42. Stretch
  39. 43. Stretch
  40. 44. Reach
  41. 45. IPCC to its authors
  42. 46. j.mp/wmorevkin
  43. 47. Known Unknowables
  44. 48. Escape from the Nerd Loop Randy Olson @abtagenda
  45. 49. #
  46. 50. #
  47. 51. Noise #planetworks #iamascientistbecause #manthropocene #farmhack #deepuncertainty #birdclass
  48. 52. Signal #planetworks #iamascientistbecause #manthropocene #farmhack #deepuncertainty #birdclass
  49. 53. WARMIST! DENIER! Beyond the shouting match
  50. 54. Climate disputes hide energy and resilience agreement
  51. 55. Support for a cap & trade policy
  52. 56. Support for providing rebates for purchases of solar panels and fuel-efficient vehicles
  53. 57. Support for requiring 45 mpg fuel efficiency across vehicle fleets, even at a $1,000 price premium.
  54. 58. j.mp/yaleclimatemaps
  55. 59. j.mp/yaleclimatemaps
  56. 60. j.mp/yaleclimatemaps
  57. 61. j.mp/yaleclimatemaps
  58. 62. John D. Sutter / CNN 2 Degrees Find the Denier: Oil-Patch America
  59. 63. Teach
  60. 64. The new classroom j.mp/pacedocs
  61. 65. The new classroom
  62. 66. The new classroom? Nature: j.mp/riskschool
  63. 67. The new classroom
  64. 68. Reveal
  65. 69. Reveal
  66. 70. Reveal Cafee.wvu.edu theICCT.org
  67. 71. Reflect
  68. 72. Designing discourse! @USGSjwp Reflect
  69. 73. Response diversity, ecosystem change, and resilience Thomas Elmqvist, Stockholm University Nov. 2003, Frontiers in Ecology & the Environment The diversity of responses to environmental change among species contributing to the same ecosystem function, which we call response diversity, is critical to resilience. Response diversity is particularly important for ecosystem renewal and reorganization following change. We should pay special attention to response diversity when planning ecosystem management and restoration, since it may contribute considerably to the resilience of desired ecosystem states against disturbance, mismanagement, and degradation. j.mp/responsediversity
  70. 74. Response diversity, ecosystem change, and resilience Thomas Elmqvist, Stockholm University Nov. 2003, Frontiers in Ecology & the Environment The diversity of responses to environmental change among people contributing to the same social function, which we call response diversity, is critical to resilience. Response diversity is particularly important for ecosystem and social renewal and reorganization following change. We should pay special attention to response diversity when planning ecological and social management and restoration, since it may contribute considerably to the resilience of desired ecosystem and social states against disturbance, mismanagement, and degradation. j.mp/responsediversity
  71. 75. Data & Values: You cant get an ought from an is. j.mp/dotvatican
  72. 76. The Virtues of Mundane Science Avoidance of the mundane sphere has been a continuing characteristic of modern science, without prejudice to particular disciplines. [A]gricultural scientists valorized the high-tech green revolution agriculture and ignored low-tech, native systems of managing forests and fields; health experts pursued exotic diseases (like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome [SARS]) while ignoring ubiquitous problems like infant diarrhea and indoor air pollution. Science, Society and the Environment : Applying Anthropology and Physics to Sustainability / Michael R. Dove and Daniel M. Kammen
  73. 77. Futureearth.info
  74. 78. Rejoice
  75. 79. Repeat Justin Maxon / Bloomberg Businessweek
  76. 80. Gavin Free / Slow Mo Guys John Brandon Miller
  77. 81. Raymond Pierrehumbert, Oxford

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