climate & atmosphere: data and information in the ......copernicus sentinel-5p (7/10/2018)...
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© ECMWF June 4, 2019
Climate & Atmosphere: Data and information in the Copernicus
Core Services
J. Garces de Marcilla, ECMWF
Torino, 30 May 2019
October 29, 2014 2EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
International organization supported
by 34 states
European cooperation:
Pool resources together to address
critical research problems in medium-
range NWP that no one country could
tackle on its own
24/7 operational centre
Copernicus
T h e S e n t i n e l s
4
SENTINEL-1: 4-40m resolution, 3 day revisit at equator
Polar-orbiting, all-weather, day-and-night radar imaging
S1A and 1B in orbit
SENTINEL-2: 10-60m resolution, 5 days revisit time
S2A and 2B in orbit
Polar-orbiting, multispectral optical, high-resolution imaging
SENTINEL-3: 300-1200m resolution, <2 days revisit
S3A and S3B in orbit
Optical and altimeter mission monitoring sea and land parameters
SENTINEL-4: 8km resolution, 60 min revisit time
1st Launch 2020
Payload for atmosphere chemistry monitoring on MTG-S
SENTINEL-5p: 7-68km resolution, 1 day revisit
S5P in orbitMission to reduce data gaps between Envisat, and Sentinel 5
SENTINEL-5: 7.5-50km resolution, 1 day revisit
1st Launch 2021
Payload for atmosphere chemistry monitoring on MetOp 2ndGen
SENTINEL-6: 10 day revisit time
1st Launch 2020
Radar altimeter to measure sea-surface height globally
Copernicus @ ECMWF
5EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
• Entrusted Entity for:
• Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)
• Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)
• Operational centre for floods and fire components of CEMS
• ~ 75% of the CAMS and C3S budget is subcontracted (more
than 300 entities from 30 European countries)
AtmosphereMonitoring
W H Y I N F O R M A T I O N S E R V I C E S A R E N E E D E D ?
Example: NO2 tropospheric column from Copernicus Sentinel-5P (7/10/2018)
Observations are essential, but direct use is generally limited:• gaps in space and time• observed quantities may not be
directly relevant (vertical column vs nose-level concentration)
What we do:• blend observations (satellite and in-
situ) with model to provide a consistent 3D “picture”
• forecasts, some days ahead• Reanalyses over past years, decades
AtmosphereMonitoring
T H E C A M S P O R T F O L I O
Solar radiation and UV index
Ozone layer
Bottom-up
emissions and
surface fluxes of
greenhouse gases
Global analyses, forecasts and
reanalysis (2003-2018)
NO2
European Air
Quality, pollen
and products in
support of policy
users
Radiative forcing
AtmosphereMonitoring
C A M S : b i g d a t a f o r l o c a l a p p l i c a t i o n s
CAMS expert
Expert user
Downstream applications
CAMS provides big data with the corresponding technical and scientific expertise to support expert users.
AtmosphereMonitoring
C A M S G L O B A L A N D R E G I O N A L F O R E C A S T S
• Twice daily (based 00, 12) NRT global analyses and forecasts up to +120h, 40km resolution
• Daily (based 00) NRT European analyses and forecasts up to +96h, 10 km resolution
• Delayed mode (4 day behind) global analyses and forecasts of CO2
and CH4, 9km
CAMS information products of NO2, , PM2.5 , Ozone and Aerosol are available to Windy’s 1.5 million users.
AtmosphereMonitoring
D U S T E P I S O D E S S E A S O N C A P T U R E D B Y C A M S
The past couple months have been marked by several acute Saharan dust events affecting Europe (including sometimes Northern Europe).
Animations of forecasts have been very popular on CAMS website and social media (reaching record consultation rates).
AtmosphereMonitoring
C A M S P A R T N E R S W I T H K E Y I N S T I T U T I O N S
https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/focus-areas/environment/ozone
WMO’s public website features some headline CAMS forecasts since July 2018.
EEA provides information about air quality observed by Member States across Europe in the last 48h and
forecast from CAMS for the next 48h.
http://discomap.eea.europa.eu/map/AQI/ViewerCAMS/
AtmosphereMonitoring
M O N I T O R I N G T H E O Z O N E L A Y E R F O R T H E E U
CAMS opened in September 2018 a webpage following request from DG-CLIMA to provide ozone layer monitoring information.
AtmosphereMonitoring
T H E C A M S A I R C O N T R O L T O O L B O X
What happens today if emissions from agriculture are cut by 50%
What happens today if emissions from traffic
are cut by 50%
AtmosphereMonitoring
D A I L Y S O U R C E A P P O R T I O N M E N T I N F O R M A T I O N
For the European capitals, daily analysis of local versus large scale contribution to air pollutant concentrations. Where does pollution come from? What is the chemical composition of PM?
Brussels
AtmosphereMonitoring
2 0 1 8 : C A M S H A S B E C O M E A M A I N S T R E A M I N F O S O U R C E
Breezometer
Plume Labs
aqcin
CAMS products are now reaching ~100s of million people worldwide
AtmosphereMonitoring
a i r T E X T
Free air pollution, UV, pollen and temperature forecasts for Greater London and the South East.
Local forecast models need information on how much pollution flows into and out of the domain to provide an accurate service.This is provided by CAMS European air quality forecasts.airTEXT is now available
in London and Riga
AtmosphereMonitoring
S U C C E S F U L U S E C A S E S B E C O M E L I V E
“Mon Toit Solaire” provides a web-based decision support system for the development of rooftop photovoltaic solar panels. CAMS provides the satellite-based time series of available solar radiation for the specific location, taking into account the amount of clouds and aerosols.
(France)
AtmosphereMonitoring
P A S Y F O - A L L E R G I E S
The aim of PASYFO is to provide a high-resolution regional system for predicting the personal allergy symptoms of pollen-sensitive people using personalised sensitivity information.
CAMS European pollen forecasts are used to provide the up-to-date information on pollen for the European domain.PASYFO was distinguished at the
Congress of the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (EAACI), with comment that such an application effectively paves the way to the future of "personalised medicine”.
ClimateChange
Copernicus Climate Change Service C3S
• How is the climate changing? How will it change in future? How will it impact society?
• Provide information about past, present and future climate
• To support European adaptation and mitigation policies
• Stimulate the market for climate services in Europe
ClimateChange
What C3S offers to its users
• Access to climate data (generated by C3S or made accessible)
• Tools needed to use the data
• Information on sectoral impacts
• Quality assurance
• User support and training
ClimateChange
C3S offer
Climate
Change
IMPLEMENTED BY
22
Climate
Change
IMPLEMENTED BY
Climate reanalysis: ERA5
• Atmosphere/land/wave parameters
• 31 km global resolution, 137 levels
• Hourly output from 1979 onward
• Using 2016 ECMWF forecast system
• Using improved input observations
• Ensemble data assimilation method
• Uncertainty estimates for all ECVs
Coming soon:
• ERA5 back to 1950, mid 2019
• ERA5-land, 1979 onwards, global at
9km resolution, end of 2019
• High resolution European and Arctic
regional reanalyses (2020)
Climate
Change
IMPLEMENTED BY
C 3 S : E O b a s e d E s s e n t i a l C l i m a t e V a r i a b l e s
Climate
Change
IMPLEMENTED BY
Aim: to generate seasonal forecast products based on the best information available,
to an operational schedule, and make them publicly available.
C3S seasonal forecasts - Introduction
Horizontal grid: global 1deg x 1degEnsemble size:
• Forecasts: ~50 members• Hindcasts: ~25 members x 24 years (1993-2016)
Variables• Surface
• 7 vars every 6h • +30 vars every 24h
• Pressure (11 levels, from 925 hPa to 10 hPa)• 8 vars every 12 h
Agreed NetCDF specification C3S-0.1 (based on CF)
Climate
Change
IMPLEMENTED BY
Climate projections
Service: Providing users with timely access to climate change
scenarios produced with state-of-the-art climate models
(CMIP, CORDEX)
ClimateChange
• distributed system• improved access to existing
datasets under a common data model
• unified web interface• inter-active web apps• environment for user workflows
and applications (tool box)
A one-stop Climate Data Store
C l i m a t e D a t a S t o r e – C D S
ClimateChange
C3S infrastructureCDS concept: Access to tools, workflows and applications
ClimateChange
Climate Data Store (CDS) users are continuously increasing Climate Data Store (CDS) users are continuously increasing
• Total data volumes: ~70 PB CDS, ~15 PB ADS
• 14,500 CDS registered users 11 months after opening
• 1,500 users registered over last 3 weeks
• Peaks of 60TB per day, mainly driven by the ERA5 release back to
1979
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2018/05 May
2018/06 June
2018/07 July
2018/08 August
2018/09 September
2018/10 October
2018/11 November
2018/12 December
2019/01 January
2019/02 February
2019/03 March
Cumulative registered user
10.000
Climate
Change
IMPLEMENTED BY
Evaluation and Quality Control (EQC) for the CDS
Quality of data
• Assessments
• User guidance
• Gaps and limitations
Quality of tools
• Fitness for purpose
• Best practices
Quality of service
• Speed,
responsiveness
• System availability,
…
ClimateChange
C3S offer
ClimateChange
C 3 S E u r o p e a n S t a t e o f t h e C l i m a t e 2 0 1 8
Climate
Change
IMPLEMENTED BY
Climate regular updates
Climate
Change
IMPLEMENTED BY
C3S offer
Climate
Change
IMPLEMENTED BY
Operational Phase
CDS / Toolbox launched
Previous C3SGA March 2017
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Present
Agriclass
SWICCA
EDGE
ECEM
Clim4Energy
WISC
C3S Water (SMHI)
C3S Energy (WEMC)
C3S Wind Storms (KNMI)
Proof of concept
UrbanSIS
U R B A NP
OC
mig
rati
on
(P
red
icti
a)
PO
C t
o O
pe
rati
on
s
Climate
Change
IMPLEMENTED BY
Operational Phase
CDS / Toolbox launched
Previous C3SGA March 2017
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Present
AgriclassGlobal Agriculture (WenR)
Proof of concept
Global Impacts (SMHI)
Global Shipping (OSM)
European Tourism (TEC)
European Health (VITO)
European Storm Surges (Deltares)
FISHERIES
European Fisheries (PML)
Glo
bal
Ser
vice
sEu
rop
ean
Ser
vice
s
Climate
Change
IMPLEMENTED BY
Operational Phase
CDS / Toolbox launched
Previous C3SGA March 2017
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Present
BIODIVERSITY
DRR
Standards & Infrastructure
Application development
Biodiversity
User Cases
Demo Cases
Use Cases
Use Cases
Use Cases
Use Cases
Demo Cases
Demo Cases
Demo Cases
Demo Cases
Evaluation & Quality Control SIS EQC - SIS
Proof of concept
ClimateChange
Rolling ITTs to stimulate innovative ideas
• based on market analysis• develop and demonstrate
end-to-end Applications• based on C3S products
and the tools provided by the CDS infrastructure.
AIM: stimulate innovative ideas and support the development of downstream applications
• develop and demonstrate applications including data visualisation, scientific communication and arts
• based on C3S products and/or the tools provided by the CDS infrastructure
AIM: stimulate innovative ideas to show-case the potential of the CDS
Rolling Invitations to TenderEvaluated on a quarterly basis, with closing dates every three months: 14 March 2019, 14 June 2019
C3S_429 C3S Demo CasesC3S_428 C3S Use Cases
Climate
Change
IMPLEMENTED BY
C3S learning services, training
Blended training
Focus on the CDS to
address climate change
challenges
Personalized learning
Online training resources for
self-paced learning
In-country training events in
local language
Train the trainers to widen
the reach of the training
Past, current and future training events
https://uls.climate.copernicus.eu
C3S User Learning Services offer free learning activities on how to use the Climate Data Store platform and its content.
Climate
Change
IMPLEMENTED BY
C3S learning services platform
Copernicus
C O 2 , S e n t i n e l 7
Copernicus
I n c r e a s i n g C O 2 c o n c e n t r a t i o n s
Figure concept from Shrink That FootprintSource: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton and Nassikas 2017; Hansis et al 2015; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al. 2013; DeVries 2014; Le Quéré et al 2017;Global Carbon Budget 2016
The cumulative contributions to the global carbon budget from 1870 to 2016.
The carbon imbalance represents the gap in our current understanding of sources and sinks.
Detailed (geographical and temporal) information is based on emission inventories.
Copernicus
O b s e r v i n g C O 2 f r o m s p a c e
GOSAT OCO-2 SentinelMicrocarbSCIAMACHY
The CO2 Sentinel will be a game-changer in terms of coverage & quality of data
Copernicus
I m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f C O 2 M V S